Breaking Down the "New Big 12" Into Tiers
The Big 12 Conference will welcome BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, and Houston next year which will give the league 14 teams until Oklahoma and Texas depart for the SEC.
On the football side of things, what should we expect the "new Big 12" to look like? Well, we broke it down into four tiers. Since Oklahoma and Texas won't be a part of the league's future, they will not be included. Of course, all of this could change in the coming weeks if the Big 12 decides to raid the PAC 12 or poach members from the ACC. But for now, this is what I expect the league to look like.
First Class
Baylor
Oklahoma State
Analysis: Baylor has had high-level success under three different head coaches now in Art Briles, Matt Rhule, and Dave Aranda. With Aranda locked up through the 2029 season and likely beyond, the Bears are going to be in the mix on a yearly basis.
Oklahoma State is the most consistent team in the "new" Big 12. Mike Gundy is also the best coach in the league. As long as that marriage continues, the Cowboys should be in the hunt for the Big 12 title and more each season.
The Next Group
BYU
TCU
West Virginia
Analysis: Of the new members, I think BYU has the best chance of sustaining success. They have a deep, rich history and have proved it against some major programs throughout the years.
It remains to be seen how the Horned Frogs will do with Gary Patterson no longer in charge of the program but being in the hotbed of Dallas and with Texas leaving the conference, they should be able to have continued success on the recruiting trail.
West Virginia will be the winningest football program in the Big 12 once Oklahoma and Texas depart. Although the success hasn't been there over the last decade, they seem to be in the mix every three or four years.
Middle of the Pack
Cincinnati
Houston
Iowa State
Kansas State
Analysis: I'm interested to see how much moving to a Power Five conference does for a program like Cincinnati. Does this help them win more recruiting battles against Ohio State or in-state talent? If so, Cincinnati could eventually make its way into "the next group".
Similar to Cincinnati, Houston has a real shot of becoming a power in the Big 12. They're going to be the one to watch out of the newcomers thanks to Tillman Fertitta and the amount of money that's being poured into that program.
Iowa State has been much better under Matt Campbell, but last year they fell way short of expectations. Have we seen the Cyclones hit their peak? Or will Matt Campbell find more success and move on to a bigger job? Either way, I don't see Iowa State being in the top half of the league on a consistent basis.
Chris Klieman has done a great job with the program since taking over for the legendary Bill Snyder. That said, it's a hard place to recruit at and win at a high level consistently. They'll be in the mix for a spot in the title game on occasion. They'll be a 6 or 7-win team on a yearly basis.
Cellar Dwellers
Central Florida
Kansas
Texas Tech
Analysis: Early on, I think UCF will have a hard time competing in the Big 12. Sure, it may help them land some more Florida talent but kids are still going to want to go to Florida, Florida State, and Miami.
I mean, do I really need to go in-depth on the Jayhawks? Not to be harsh, but I think we all know the ceiling for Kansas is about three wins.
I hated to put Texas Tech down here in this group but with the new members coming in, I think it bumps Tech down a level. They're not going to be able to out-recruit TCU and Baylor even with Joey McGuire. Plus, they won't have the NIL possibilities that Houston has.
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