The Big 12 Needs to be Bold
Conference realignment was again centerstage on Thursday following the announcement of USC and UCLA high tailing out of the Pac 12 Conference and into the Big Ten Conference - a year after Texas and Oklahoma made their move from the Big 12 to the SEC.
Speculation on what the Big Ten and the SEC may do next, primarily growing the total of league members from 16 to 20 rose to the top. Then, rumors of who the two conferences were poaching next circulated around social media leaving the fan bases left behind the mega deals, in a bit of a panic.
The move did not directly affect the Big 12 (yet) but newly acquired Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark already had a challenging task of renewing the Grant of Rights for the league, which runs out in 2025, but now he may be tasked in salvaging the conference, depending on what's going on behind closed doors around the rest of the country.
Seemingly everyone's initial thoughts around the Big 12 Conference are, "scoop up the remaining members of the Pac 12," and quite frankly, it could be the wrong move. There's a reason the PAC 12 was last in revenue per school. There is not enough interest within the league to bring in the money.
However, a play I have not seen discussed is, the Big 12 Conference poaching the ACC. Yes, the ACC GOR is locked in until 2036 but there are ways around it, especially if you're bold enough to take most of the members, therefore absolving the GOR. That means, to get to 20 before anyone else, the Big 12 would need to take eight ACC members.
It may sound crazy but hear me out.
Aug 30, 2012; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Barclays Center chief executive officer Brett Yormark speaks at the press conference announcing the fight between Danny Garcia and Erik Morales at New York Marriott at the Brooklyn Bridge.
Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN has the ACC's Grant of Rights, the same company that bought out most of the rights to the SEC and gave the league the financial backing to grab Oklahoma and Texas from the Big 12. ESPN has not made the same commitment to the ACC and with the new deal, fell further behind its competition. This cannot sit well with members of the ACC, and I can't imagine they are thrilled with the leadership that locked in a long-term deal, albeit it was the previous leadership in response to the last big shift a little over five years ago.
So, who would the Big 12 turn to for a big pay day? Well, certainly not ESPN. Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby tried to renew the GOR for the conference last spring before he was immediately shut down and now, we know why. It may be time to sever the relationship.
Following the Big Ten's announcement, Apple wanted back in the negotiations for its GOR. Yes, Apple, the tech company. While it seems absurd for a league to go full stream, ESPN is already heading in the same direction. In an article by CNBC in October, Disney is trying to find common ground with ESPN. The recent decline in cable subscriptions puts ESPN at odds with the current model, and according to American media companies, there will be less than 50 million cable subscriptions in less than five years and ESPN has to figure out how to make up $3 billion in annual lost pay-TV subscription revenue that’s coming in the next few years as cord-cutting continues.
Amazon has also shown interest in getting into the college football world. They already have deals with the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and struck a deal with the UEFA and have shown interest in the Big Ten deal. Add Netflix and NBC to the mix, although NBC has a deal with Notre Dame. Nonetheless, they too have streaming options and if the world is opting for streaming options, would you want 20 fanbases buying a subscription or one?
There are opportunities outside of the norm but how much are they willing to invest? Well, moving the conference east and grabbing Miami, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Virginia, North Carolina, Syracuse, and Duke would bring a lot of value.
It brings us back to the SEC and Big Ten. If the plan is to expand, then surely anyone from the ACC would quickly jump to the two mega conferences. It depends on the deal Brett Yarmark could bring to the table and it really hinges on how bad companies like Apple, Amazon and Netflix want in the college football world.
Yarmark might be able to entice some of the biggest companies in the world to jump into college athletics. He served as vice president of corporate sponsorships for NASCAR, where he oversaw a $750 million partnership agreement and as CEO of the Brooklyn Nets and Barclays Center, he oversaw their move from New Jersey to Brooklyn (2015-2019), building the first new arena in New York City in 60 years and re-launching the Nets organization and brand in Brooklyn. In short, he can layout his vision.
Despite his sports background, he is still considered an outsider in the college football world, and he may not feel compelled to adhere to traditional practices, and let's be honest, nothing has been normal since the spring of 2020.
Of course, this could all be a moot point. The way Oklahoma and Texas left the Big 12 and now USC and UCLA exiting the Pac 12, the next moves might already be in place, but I would not leave anything off the table.
The fact of the matter is for the Big 12 Conference to remain competitive; leadership will have to look at all options. Reports have recently emerged that the Big 12 is meeting with four Pac 12 teams, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and Arizona State. Generally, when news like this break, it's a done deal but it could be the Big 12 is looking at all options before deciding.
It may take some out of the box thinking if the league wants to survive, and a billion-dollar company like Amazon might be willing to make a large investment to tip the scales away from ESPN.
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