How the NBA's Western Conference playoff race could turn out
The Western Conference playoff race is coming down to the final days and just 3.5 games separate the fourth placed Phoenix Suns from the 11th placed Dallas Mavericks, with the Clippers, Timberwolves, Warriors, Pelicans, Lakers and Thunders and crammed between in the 5th-10th positions respectively.
How it shakes out is anyone's guess, but a team that owns tiebreakers and has a relatively soft remaining schedule is the Minnesota Timberwolves, who enter play Tuesday in sixth place.
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According to FiveThirtyEight's projections, this is how the West will wind up:
- Denver Nuggets: 56-26
- Memphis Grizzlies: 52-30
- Sacramento Kings: 48-34
- Phoenix Suns: 44-38 (currently owns tiebreaker over LAC)
- Los Angeles Clippers: 44-38
- Minnesota Timberwolves: 43-39 (owns tiebreaker over GSW)
- Golden State Warriors: 43-39
- Los Angeles Lakers: 41-41 (owns tiebreakers over NOP and OKC)
- New Orleans Pelicans: 41-41 (owns tiebreaker over OKC)
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 41-41
- Dallas Mavericks: 40-42
- Utah Jazz: 37-45
- Portland Trail Blazers: 34-48
- San Antonio Spurs: 21-61
- Houston Rockets: 20-62
If this played out, the play-in tournament would initially feature No. 7 Golden State against the No. 8 Lakers, and the No. 9 Pelicans against No. 10 Oklahoma City, with the winners of Golden State–Lakers meeting the Memphis Grizzlies. The loser from that match would then face the winner of Pelicans–Thunder for the right to face the Nuggets.
The Timberwolves and Kings would meet in the 6-3 matchup, while the series between the fourth and fifth seeds would see the Suns and Clippers battle.
With that in mind, here's a look at what each team – seeds 4-11 – is facing over the final 6-7 games of the regular season.
4. Phoenix Suns (40-35): 7 games
- Wed., March 29 vs. Minnesota
- Fri., March 31 vs. Denver
- Sun., April 2 at Oklahoma City
- Tue., April 4 vs. San Antonio
- Thur., April 6 vs. Denver
- Fri., April 7 at LA Lakers
- Sun., April 9 vs. LA Clippers
FiveThirtyEight projected record: 44-38
Strength of schedule: #12
Kevin Durant is expected back Wednesday night and that gives the Suns a potent lineup just in time for the critical stretch run. But that doesn't make it any easier against the Timberwolves, Nuggets (twice), Thunder, Lakers and Clippers in six of their final seven games. All of their opponents are either fighting for playoff positioning or their playoff lives.
5. Los Angeles Clippers (40-36): 6 games
- Wed., March 29 at Memphis
- Fri., March 31 at Memphis
- Sat., April 1 at New Orleans
- Wed., April 5 vs. LA Lakers
- Sat., April 8 vs. Portland
- Sun., April 9 at Phoenix
FiveThirtyEight projected record: 43-39
Strength of schedule: #6
Three games in four nights against the Grizzlies (twice) and the surging Pelicans: That's nasty. Then they get the Lakers and Suns in the final week of action. It won't be an easy ride with Paul George out injured, so a slide in the standings certainly appears possible. They don't own tiebreakers over most teams, so they're in a position where they need to win.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves (39-37): 6 games
- Wed., March 29 at Phoenix
- Fri., March 31 vs. LA Lakers
- Sun., April 2 vs. Portland
- Tue., April 4 at Brooklyn
- Sat., April 8 at San Antonio
- Sun., April 9 vs. New Orleans
FiveThirtyEight projected record: 43-39
Strength of schedule: #25
Minnesota owns tiebreakers over most teams chasing them for the sixth seed in the Western Conference, and the reality is that they control their destiny. Wednesday's game in Phoenix appears to be the most difficult, followed by Friday's mega showdown in Minneapolis against the Lakers.
The only issue? The Wolves have often sucked against weaker teams this year, so having a kinder schedule isn't necessarily a strength.
7. Golden State Warriors (39-37): 6 games
- Tue. March 28 vs. New Orleans
- Fri. March 31 vs. San Antonio
- Sun., April 2 at Denver
- Tue., April 4 vs. Oklahoma City
- Fri., April 7 at Sacramento
- Sun., April 9 at Portland
FiveThirtyEight projected record: 43-39
Strength of schedule: #18
The healthy Warriors have the 18th hardest remaining schedule in the NBA but on paper it looks more daunting because they're up against the surging Pelicans, the West-leading Nuggets, the dynamic Thunder led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and a huge penultimate game in Sacramento. That's not an easy road.
8. New Orleans Pelicans (38-37): 7 games
- Tue., March 28 at Golden State
- Thur. March 30 at Denver
- Sat., April 1 vs. LA Clippers
- Tue., April 4 vs. Sacramento
- Wed., April 5 vs. Memphis
- Fri., April 7 vs. New York
- Sun., April 9 at Minnesota
FiveThirtyEight projected record: 41-41
Strength of schedule: #1
The Pelicans have the hardest remaining schedule in the NBA, facing seven teams that are all on track to make the playoffs.
9. Los Angeles Lakers (37-38): 7 games
- Wed., March 29 at Chicago
- Fri. March 31 at Minnesota
- Sun., April 2 at Houston
- Tue., April 4 at Utah
- Wed., April 5 at LA Clippers
- Fri., April 7 vs. Phoenix
- Sun., April 9 vs. Utah
FiveThirtyEight projected record: 41-41
Strength of schedule: #24
They shot themselves in the foot with a home loss to the Bulls over the weekend and now they have to stay in the race with a five-game road trip that includes a monster game Friday at Minnesota.
10. Oklahoma City Thunder (37-38): 7 games
- Tue., March 28 vs. Charlotte
- Wed., March 29 vs. Detroit
- Fri., March 31 at Indiana
- Sun., April 2 vs. Phoenix
- Tue., April 4 at Golden State
- Thur., April 6 at Utah
- Sun., April 9 vs. Memphis
FiveThirtyEight projected record: 41-41
Strength of schedule: #28
OKC has a legit shot to make the play-in tournament, though FiveThirtyEight is only giving them a 23% chance. Tiebreakers will undoubtedly be key and that's where they are hurting because they do not own tiebreakers over the Wolves, Lakers or Pelicans.
11. Dallas Mavericks (37-39): 6 games
- Wed., March 29 at Philadelphia
- Sat., April 1 at Miami
- Sun., April 2 at Atlanta
- Wed., April 5 vs. Sacramento
- Fri. April 7 vs. Chicago
- Sun., April 9 vs. San Antonio
FiveThirtyEight projected record: 40-42
Strength of schedule: #16
The Mavericks have crumbled since trading for Kyrie Irving and their next three games on the road against East playoff contenders Philly, Miami and Atlanta is essentially a do-or-die scenario for them.
