How Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff could shape the Twins' plans at the trade deadline
In the summer of 2019, Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis were raking in the same lineup at Double-A Pensacola. Both players were top prospects in the Minnesota Twins system and many figured it would be a matter of time until they would be producing in the same lineup in Minneapolis.
Four years later, Lewis and Kirilloff have yet to be in the same lineup for the Twins. But with both players thriving coming off of injury, that time could be near and it could alter what the Twins do at the upcoming trade deadline.
Kirilloff has been in and out of the lineup the past two seasons with a wrist injury but has shown flashes of dominance. After an offseason procedure where doctors intentionally broke his wrist and shaved part of the ulna bone, the Twins took it slow with Kirilloff to begin the season and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul.
In 10 games with the Saints, Kirilloff hit .316/.435/.605 with three homers and 12 RBI before he was recalled on May 5. In his return to the majors, Kirilloff hasn't missed a beat, hitting.438/.591/.875 over seven games and smashing a pair of homers in Saturday's 11-1 win over the Chicago Cubs.
"He's more than healthy right now," Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said via Dan Hayes of The Athletic. "The swings tell you everything you need to know."
If Kirilloff's wrist holds up, the Twins could have their first baseman, which would push Joey Gallo to the outfield. This scenario could also spell trouble for Trevor Larnach, who has been up and down with the Twins to start the season, though he did smash a three-run homer in Sunday's win.
Larnach has shown flashes of his own power but has been limited by breaking pitches. According to Statcast, Larnach is hitting .167 with a 50% whiff rate on breaking pitches this season. Pitchers have picked up on this as Larnach has one of the lowest fastball rates in the majors at 44.6%, but is facing breaking balls at a 36.3% rate.
The inability to hit breaking pitches could spell trouble for the 26-year-old and could precede his ticket out of town. But while the rise of Kirilloff has a ripple effect on one side of the diamond, Lewis may create another shockwave over at third base.
Lewis is coming off a pair of ACL tears in a span of 15 months but looked like a future All-Star at this time last year.
In 34 games with the Saints, Lewis hit .313/.405/.534 with five homers and 12 stolen bases before he was called up due to an injury to Carlos Correa. He hit .300/.317/.500 with a pair of home runs in 12 games with the Twins and was even mentioned for a super-utility role before tearing his ACL while colliding with the wall in center field.
Like Kirilloff, it wouldn't be a surprise if the Twins took it slow with Lewis. But the 24-year-old seems to be forcing their hand, as he went 2-for-3 with a double, RBI single, stolen bases and three runs scored while playing seven innings at shortstop for Double-A Wichita on Saturday night.
While Lewis certainly looks ready to contribute, the bigger question is where he will play. Despite a slow start, Correa is entrenched at shortstop after signing a six-year deal to return to the Twins last winter. Lewis also played at third base in his season debut, which could create another log jam at the hot corner.
The Twins started the season with Jose Miranda at third base but that experiment hasn't panned out. While the 24-year-old has struggled at the plate, hitting .220/.275/.318 with three home runs, his defense has been even more disappointing, ranking tied for last among third basemen with Baltimore's Ramón Urías at five outs below average.
While Miranda also has experience at first base, he was four outs below average at the position in 2022 and is currently behind Gallo and Kirilloff on the depth chart.
Even if Miranda figures things out defensively at third base and finds his bat in the minors, he'll have to hold off Lewis and Brooks Lee, who was the eighth overall pick in last year's draft.
There is a chance that Lewis or Lee could shift to second base to play around Correa in the future but that position is currently occupied by Jorge Polanco, who has a $10.5 million vesting option for 2024 and a $12 million team option for 2025 if he reaches 550 plate appearances this year.
All of this is important as the Twins approach the trade deadline in the coming months. If Kirilloff, Lewis and even Lee force their way toward the minors, Larnach and Miranda could be the odd men out and be the centerpiece of a package to add a top-tier arm to the rotation or a bat to the lineup.
This hinges on all three prospects remaining healthy, but it could shape the Twins drastically as they look to make their way toward a postseason berth.
