'I had a tough week': Metrics say Byron Buxton deserves better
The Minnesota Twins picked up a 9-4 victory over the Chicago White Sox on Friday night but the bigger headline was the performance of Byron Buxton.
Buxton entered Friday night's game in an 0-for-26 slump but responded by hitting two home runs, including a three-run, 427-foot blast off Lance Lynn in the first inning.
The moment was a breakthrough for Buxton, who is mired in his worst full season with the Twins. Even after Friday's performance, Buxton is hitting .197/.284/.426 (.710 OPS) with 17 home runs and 40 RBI and has been relegated to the designated hitter role due to injuries. But there are some numbers that suggest he deserves a better fate.
According to Statcast, Buxton is one of the league's best hitters in generating exit velocity. His maximum exit velocity of 115.1 mph ranks in the 96th percentile of all major league hitters this season, and his average exit velocity of 91 mph grades in the 77th percentile.
Since Rocco Baldelli's criticism of his team following a loss to the Braves on June 28, Buxton's average exit velocity of 94.9 mph ranks first on the Twins and ninth among all hitters with a minimum of 30 plate appearances.
Those numbers got a boost on Friday night when Buxton took Lynn's fastball and sent it into the bullpen at 114.3 mph. Buxton's second home run in the fourth inning only left his bat at 93.1 mph, but it was another sign of solid contact – which is something that Buxton hasn't been rewarded for in recent weeks.
Since June 29, Buxton has an expected batting average of .232 but is hitting just .175. The 57-point difference is the 25th largest gap among qualifying hitters during that stretch and is the largest on the Twins.
Buxton's expected slugging percentage of .511 is also the fourth best on the team behind Max Kepler (.534), Kyle Famer (.564) and Edouard Julien (.805), but his actual slugging percentage during this stretch is just .404.
While there are some signs that point to an imminent hot streak, there are other signs that point to this being another flare up for Buxton. His most recent slump marked the fourth time this season that he's had a hitless stretch of 15 or more at-bats, although he hasn't posted the exit velocity or expected numbers that he did in his most recent slump.
Making hard contact and not being rewarded can be tough on any hitter and it could be the reason Buxton has been prone to slumps. Buxton admitted as such during his postgame interview on Friday night.
"For the most part, [I had to] just stay positive," Buxton said. "You know, I had a tough week and my teammates just told me to go out and be myself. You know, me being myself was the best version for the team. So just trying to go out there and relax and have quality at-bats and today turned out to be a good day."
There are other areas of Buxton's game that need to be cleaned up such as his 31.5% strikeout rate and 30.3% whiff rate. But if Buxton can keep hitting the ball hard, the hits should follow and make performances like the one on Friday night more than an outlier.
