Should the Twins trade Carlos Correa or risk losing him for nothing?
According to a report from the Star Tribune's Phil Miller, the Minnesota Twins have not initiated talks on a contract extension for Carlos Correa.
Correa's agent, Scott Boras, told Miller at this week's MLB All-Star festivities that the Twins have been impressed by his strong leadership, clubhouse presence, and "his ability to advance the goals of the franchise," but that teams normally wait until the end of the season to begin discussions on a new deal.
The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported in April that Correa is interested in signing a long-term deal with the Twins, but the team has historically been reluctant to shell out massive contracts.
With Miller reporting that Correa is expected to opt out of his three-year, $105.1 million contract after this season, it leaves the Twins three choices: sign Correa to a massive extension, trade him at the deadline or risk losing him for nothing.
In 71 games this season, Correa is hitting .279 with 11 homers and 33 RBIs. Those numbers could be even better if he didn't miss time after being hit by a pitch on his hand in early May and landing on the COVID-19 list in June.
With Correa also providing Gold Glove defense at shortstop and leadership in the clubhouse, it seems like an easy decision to lock him in long-term. The reality is, the Twins just might not be interested in that kind of contract. And Correa has to know that big-market teams could be salivating at the chance to break the bank for the 27-year-old star.
Correa was signed with the idea that Royce Lewis was one year from being ready for the major leagues. When Lewis began tearing the cover off the ball at Triple-A St. Paul this spring, the Twins called him up and he continued raking at the big-league level only to suffer a torn ACL while making a leaping catch against the wall at Target Field.
After his second ACL tear in the last 15 months, Lewis is expected to miss a full year, but the Twins may still view him as a crucial part of their plans for next season. If Lewis' timetable is accurate, it would only require a two-month stopgap before he's ready to play next season.
The Houston Astros realized this when letting Correa walk last spring. Although Correa has better stats, it's not worth the $34.4 million the Astros saved by using top prospect Jeremy Peña at shortstop.
Because of the switch to Peña, the Astros were able to use the savings to bring back Justin Verlander on a one-year, $25 million contract. For what it's worth, no pitcher on the Twins roster has more wins (12), strikeouts (108) or a lower ERA (1.89) than Verlander this season.
With Correa probably looking to exceed the 10-year, $325 million contract Corey Seager signed with the Texas Rangers last offseason, there is a strong case for the Twins to roll with Lewis and go after a free-agent pitcher such as Joe Musgrove, Carlos Rodón or Jacob deGrom to bolster the top of their rotation.
So what do the Twins do with Correa?
With three weeks until the Aug. 2 deadline, the first-place Twins are looking for multiple bullpen arms and a frontline starting pitcher. Even if they do make those deals, there's no guarantee that they are better than the New York Yankees, Houston Astros or any of the other contenders in the American League.
At some point, the Twins' front office may decide that this team isn't worth gutting the farm system. If they reach that point, their best option may be trading Correa, and that doesn't necessarily mean they would be punting on their chances this season.
Looking at the current landscape of the league, there aren't many teams that would be looking to upgrade at shortstop. Correa also isn't guaranteed to sign a long-term extension with an acquiring team, leaving his value as a two-month rental.
Throwing out some trade ideas...
Using the Baseball Trade Values simulator, the Twins have a couple of options. Perhaps teams wouldn't be willing to shell out a massive package for Correa, but adding Miguel Sanó (and his $9.2 million salary) might bring the two sides closer together.
This would be an option for the Philadelphia Phillies, who might be looking to upgrade over Didi Gregorius and are looking for power in the wake of Bryce Harper's broken thumb.
A package of pitchers Hans Crouse (Philadelphia's No. 5 prospect per MLB.com) and Francisco Morales (No. 8) and outfielder/first baseman Jordan Viars (No. 11) satisfies the trade simulator but might leave the Twins feeling underwhelmed.
Baseball Trade Values Simulator
If the Twins want to go the prospect route, they could tap into a deeper organization like the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals ranked fifth in Bleacher Report's most recent farm system rankings and could have more talent to make a deal.
A deal involving St. Louis' No. 5 prospect, outfielder Joshua Baez, and No. 6 prospect Michael McGreevey could interest the Twins but both are projected to be at least two years away from the majors.
An immediate impact deal may be tough to find, but not impossible. The Milwaukee Brewers may be an interesting trade partner as Willy Adames is fourth among shortstops with nine outs above average but is hitting just .220 with 19 homers.
If the Brewers want a more reliable bat, they can acquire Correa for another player with a looming contract situation: Josh Hader. Of course, the Brewers are in first place in the NL Central and probably not keen on dealing their ace reliever.
Dealing Correa would be a tough pill to swallow, but acquiring one of the best closers in baseball would soften the blow. Teaming Hader with Jhoan Duran would create an unstoppable duo at the end of games and allow the Twins to still make other moves to bolster the rest of their roster and still contend this season.
As an added bonus, Hader is arbitration-eligible next season, meaning he's more than just a rental. Of course, that's another reason Milwaukee probably wouldn't do it.
There is the clubhouse effect of trading one of the best players in baseball, but it's one way to work around Correa's contract situation. No matter what they decide to do, they need to make a decision on Correa's future or risk losing him for nothing after the season.
