Why the Twins' overcrowded outfield is good and bad
The Minnesota Twins may not be the best team in Major League Baseball, but they might be one of the deepest.
After spending most of the offseason chasing down Carlos Correa, the Twins have focused their attention on adding depth to their roster. The result has been a small army of good-but-not-great starting pitchers and enough shortstops to field their own local nine.
This is understandable considering few teams were hit harder by injuries than the Twins last season, but when it comes to the outfield, there might be a problem.
The Twins came into the offseason with a solid trio of Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff and Byron Buxton, but their moves have created a logjam that could not only create competition but stunt the growth of their young players.
It starts with the signing of Joey Gallo. A 29-year-old with massive power should be a blessing for a team that ranked 17th in runs scored and 13th in home runs last season, but Gallo is more than an all-or-nothing slugger.
Gallo won a pair of Gold Gloves in 2020 and 2021 thanks to his work in the outfield and according to Baseball Savant, his seven outs above average ranked fourth among corner outfielders during that time. While Baseball Savant ruled that he was three outs below average last season, Gallo has 43 career defensive runs saved and 40 outfield assists, which establishes him as an elite defender.
The addition of Gallo appeared to spell the end for Max Kepler, who hasn't recaptured the success of his 2019 season. After hitting .252/.336/.519 with 36 homers as part of the Bomba Squad, the soon-to-be 30-year-old has hit .220/.314/.392 with 37 homers over the past three seasons.
Kepler's production hit rock bottom last year when he slashed .227/.318/.348 with nine homers in 388 at-bats, but his analytics showed a player that may have been stung by bad luck. Baseball Savant charted Kepler with a .266 expected batting average, a strikeout rate in the 88th percentile and chase rate in the 80th percentile.
With Kepler leading all corner outfielders with 11 outs above average last season and a contract that will pay him $8.5 million this season with a $10 million option for 2024, the Twins certainly have a tradable asset – especially with MLB banning the use of shifts next season.
The Athletic's Dan Hayes reported recently that trade interest in Kepler "hasn't been there" and that the Twins are prepared to enter the season with Kepler on the roster.
This would create an elite defensive outfield of Kepler, Buxton and Gallo with newly acquired Michael A. Taylor serving as the fourth outfielder, but it also creates problems for the players behind them on the depth chart.
Alex Kirilloff is one player who the Twins are still high on despite a nagging wrist issue that has required surgery each of the past two seasons. While the 25-year-old had a disappointing .250/.290/.361 line with just 10 extra-base hits in 144 at-bats, he absolutely crushed Triple-A pitching with the St. Paul Saints, hitting .359/.465/.641 with 10 homers and seven doubles in 131 at-bats.
Trevor Larnach is another player that appeared to be turning a corner in 2022, hitting .299/.375/.516 with three homers and becoming one of the Twins' leaders in wins above replacement over his first 32 games. While an injury that required core surgery slowed him down, the Twins' 2018 first-round pick still has a prominent role in their future plans.
With Matt Wallner, who hit .228/.323/.386 with two homers in 18 games last season, and Gilberto Celestino, who posted similar metrics to Taylor last season, the Twins might not have enough at-bats to go around...unless they are creative.
In Hayes's report from TwinsFest, he noted that Twins boss Derek Falvey mentioned that some players currently listed as outfielders could play different positions. This could include moving Gallo or Kirilloff to first base but that would create even more problems.
Although Gallo has indicated he is willing to play first base, doing so would neutralize his ability in the outfield, which is why he was able to command a one-year, $11 million contract with a batting line that would reminds Twins fans of Miguel Sanó.
The Twins could also move Kirilloff to first base assuming his surgically-repaired wrist holds up, but that creates problems in the infield – especially if Jose Miranda struggles defensively at third base.
With Taylor set to back up Buxton in the center field, it's fair to wonder if the Twins are set to begin the year with a starting outfield of Larnach, Celestino and Wallner in St. Paul. While this group has plenty of major league experience, they have combined for just 483 Triple-A at-bats which may have contributed to their struggles in the majors.
If the Twins are decimated by injuries again in 2023, they can dip into a pool of several outfielders with major league experience. If the Twins are in contention, they can use one of these players to fill a need at the trade deadline. If the Twins fall out of contention, they can ship some of the veterans out for more prospects.
In other words, the Twins have options which is something they couldn't say when they were calling up Celestino, Mark Contreras and Jake Cave for regular at-bats last summer.
