Decoding Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's pre-draft press conference
EAGAN — In his first pre-draft press conference at TCO Performance Center, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah spent seven-and-a-half minutes with his opening comments. Some of it was dedicated to smelling the roses — after all, it wasn’t long ago that he was a researcher with the San Francisco 49ers just trying to make a small difference. Some of it was about the work environment he is trying to create and passing along thank yous to the front office and scouts. Some of it was about the “beautiful puzzle” that the Minnesota Vikings are trying to solve on draft night. Before taking questions, Adofo-Mensah shared an anecdote about the inner workings of the team’s draft preparation meetings that encapsulated all three.
“[Receivers] coach [Keenan] McCardell raises his hand and we’re at a certain pick, and he gives this impassioned plea to pick a different position than his,” Adofo-Mensah said. “And there’s some great options that are there at his position. There are no words that were needed to be said. Everybody felt the moment. When you talk about selflessness and team, and all of those things, in that moment, he showed everybody what it was about.”
Following a regime that felt like it was completely run by two football men, Adofo-Mensah came out projecting a bat signal that “collaboration” isn’t just a buzz word, it’s how he’s operated the pre-draft process.
“I told them at the end of that meeting, ‘We can’t control what happens this weekend. All we can do is prepare like crazy and move as a unit, move together,” Adofo-Mensah said. “I don’t know what’s going to happen at the draft, but we have a lot of scenarios planned for it and we will best respond to whatever comes our way.”
The Vikings are in a tricky spot as they try to plan for all the potential outcomes because the outcomes appear to be unpredictable. There are always questions at the top of the draft but the quarterback dynamic has added a particular layer of uncertainty to projecting the picks before the Vikings are on the clock at No. 12. Could we see two quarterbacks be picked? None? Will a bad 40-yard dash time hurt Kyle Hamilton? Will Kayvon Thibodeaux or Derek Stingley Jr. slide? Will the best player available at 12 be a tackle? And then, will anyone want to trade down?
They have answers for all of those questions but the NFL Draft has proven to have surprises in past years (see: Gasmask Bong). And when the team only has three selections in the first 155 picks heading into Thursday, the challenge of front office, scouting and coaching collaboration might be deciding how to factor all the different possibilities. Coaches want help right away, analytics people (maybe!) want to trade down, scouts want players whose traits they believe in.
Adofo-Mensah explained how he’s managing all the different perspectives.
“I think it’s about viewing lenses,” he said. “Coaches, their viewing lens is going to be shaded by technique, responsibility, because those are things they are really great at. Scouts are going to be shaded by your natural ability. What’s in your body? Analytics people, myself, are going to be shaded by the outcome. Hey, how many times is this happening? What percentage of times?… I wouldn’t say it’s putting more weight on the other. It’s using them all equally and then closing the loop when they don’t all agree.”
Where might the loops not be closed in this draft? One of the top players who could be available at No. 12 is Kyle Hamilton, who plays a position at safety that isn’t considered among the most valuable in comparison to receiver, pass rusher or cornerback. It also isn’t an immediate need. But it’s plausible that scouts would see Hamilton as the best player available. Receiver Jameson Williams could offer a similar conundrum. He’s considered by many as the top receiver prospect but the Vikings have a strong receiving duo and Williams is coming off an ACL injury. Highly debated defensive line prospects Travon Walker and Jordan Davis had historically good Combines but neither produced that much in college. Who wins out?
“I tried to explain to them a draft room is like a real-life algorithm,” Adofo-Mensah said. “Algorithms combine different information sources into some final output, so I wanted our draft room to essentially be that, a lot of different voices coming together. On the end of that, here’s a number, here’s a recommendation that is confident in this room and how confident different sources is and what we are about to do.”
We can interpret his way of making draft-day decisions as putting everyone’s opinion in a pot and following whatever it spits out based on the circumstances.
You would assume there have to be some data-driven parameters that will deeply influence decisions though. That might be the case when it comes to trading on draft day. Adofo-Mensah talked about how he approaches acquiring extra picks by moving down (which was a favorite maneuver of his predecessor).
“Special players do matter, but you’ve got a big team and you’ve got depth needed and you’ve got things you’ve got to fill out, so I think volume is really important,” Adofo-Mensah said.
NFL Draft trades are still driven by the famed Jimmy Johnson draft chart. However, the chart was found to overvalue the highest picks — maybe factoring in that trades to the top of the draft often involve quarterbacks. Adofo-Mensah said that the Vikings have already had talks with other teams about their plans for moving around with deals. Trading down appears to be the much more likely outcome based on draft projections.
“I would push that whatever chart anybody is using, there’s no amount of seventh-round picks that will equal the value of a first pick,” Adofo-Mensah said. “You could do that with a thousand seventh-round picks and that’s not going to equal the value because there’s a specialness that comes with that first-round pick that isn’t replaceable very easily. Those are things you’ve got to go back-and-forth with and think of in your mind. It’s not a simple math equation.”
Speaking of math equations, the delicate dance of the draft isn’t as straight forward as picking Player A over Player B because of scouting reports and data. When Adofo-Mensah was asked about trying to get value picks because of “character” issues or injury concerns, he was careful to point out that each case is unique and that young people coming into the draft aren’t finished products. There is an equation but it can’t be set in stone.
“The risk-reward…is not an exact science but it is something you pay attention to if there’s a certain value for a player,” he said. “There’s got to be a certain discount for certain things like injury risk and things like that, but it’s not this perfect, ‘Hey’ it’s 10 percent here or 5 percent here, or a round discount.’ It’s kind of an imperfect science with a little bit of art and a little bit of math together. I think that’s where we thrive.”
They may have the opportunity to thrive with players like Stingley Jr., Williams and Michigan’s David Ojabo where injuries are a factor. There have also been reports that receiver George Pickens has teams concerned about his character. Will they look for steals or play it safe if the opportunity should come to pick them?
Finally Adofo-Mensah was quizzed on his former boss Andrew Berry’s propensity to draft younger players. Is that something we’ll see as a serious change in the way the Vikings are drafting? Former GM Rick Spielman once said that age was not a factor in who they selected. The Vikings’ new GM didn’t want to tip his hand on this one.
“If I had had a player of equal ability and equal this and equal that, would I want the younger player? Those are things that people can disagree on or agree on... But there’s also dynamics that come with a younger roster, right? …I wouldn’t say it something we’re stressing or trying to do.”
What does it all mean?
Mostly that we’ll find out Thursday, Friday and Saturday what it all means. But also that Adofo-Mensah is trying to thread a difficult needle of taking a scientific approach while keeping in mind that football players and scouts and coaches aren’t algorithms. Sometimes it comes down to instincts. Sometimes it comes down to luck.
The proving ground is is not forgiving in this case and the Vikings desperately need to produce a quality draft in order to start the rebuilding portion of their “competitive rebuild.”
“We are prepared to do whatever is presented to us,” Adofo-Mensah said.
