Exploring the Vikings' trade-down options in the draft

Last year the Vikings traded down -- if they do it again, which teams might they target as potential partners and is it a good idea?

To trade down or not to trade down?

The Minnesota Vikings are short on draft capital but have a number of holes — present and future — on their roster to fill. A great way to fix this: trading back. Pick No. 23 is pretty valuable but we have seen from past drafts that if another team really likes a player on their board and wants to trade up to pick them, they will make it happen. Last year’s draft featured nine trades in the first round so the Vikings could take advantage of the priciness of trading up.

The current state of the Vikings draft

The Vikings currently own five picks in the 2023 NFL Draft – RD1 #23, RD3 #87, RD4 #119 (from Detroit), RD5 #158, and RD6 #211. That amounts to a total trade capital of 1003.4 by the Jimmy Johnson chart – and that’s 28^th in the NFL.

Current mocks by NFL.com, CBS, and PFF analysts have the Vikings generally taking one of QB Will Levis, QB Hendon Hooker, CB Deonte Banks, WR Jordan Addison, and CB Joey Porter Jr. at pick No. 23. As you can see, the mockers are pointing to multiple positions of need.

Why the Vikings might want to trade back

The Vikings certainly don’t have enough draft capital to trade up without dipping into next year’s bevy of picks, so that’s pretty much out of the question unless they want to shock the world with a quarterback pick. But in the right situation, trading down might be their best option, and a good amount of mock drafts have them doing so. NFL.com’s mock by Lance Zierlein has them sliding back in a trade with the Bills to take linebacker Drew Sanders, for example.

Here’s two situations where they could consider moving back:

1) The top wide receivers are all off the board and they’re hesitant to take a cornerback that early.

• This seems fairly realistic because the Chargers and Ravens (who pick directly before the Vikings) are both receiver needy teams, so if only second-round type receiver and cornerback prospects are left, the Vikings would probably feel they could trade back a few picks and still land a quality prospect at both spots.

2) Some top receivers and cornerbacks are on the board at No. 23 and teams are calling the Vikings to trade up.

• This is the scenario where the Vikings really like the players available at No. 23, but other teams like them even more. Let’s say receivers Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers, as well as cornerbacks Deonte Banks and Joey Porter Jr., are all on the board at No. 23. Teams will certainly be calling the Vikings. Trading down here and picking up a late Day 2 or early Day 3 pick in the process makes sense. However, if they really want one a player who doesn't need a ton of development, they shouldn’t go back too far.

How far? Let’s have a look at some potential deals…

Proposed trades

Note: Numbers in brackets are the numerical value of that pick according to the Jimmy Johnson Valuation Model

Trade back with the Buffalo Bills to pick #27

Trade:

• Vikings give to Bills: #23 [760 total points]
• Vikings receive: #27, #130 (4^th round) [722 total points]

Projected selections:

• Bills select: Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU)
• Vikings select: Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College) and Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (CB, TCU)

Why it makes sense:

The Bills desperately need a No. 2 receiver alongside their star Stefon Diggs and could aim to insure that they get their guy. Johnston is the only other top-20 prospect receiver per NFLMockDraftDatabase aside from Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The problem, of course, is that he could be a prime target for the Vikings, so they would have to decide if they want to trade back with a team they know needs a receiver but with a lot more holes than the Bills and not much draft capital to fix them it may be the best choice.

I have Zay Flowers falling to the Vikings, who are now at #27 after this trade (MockDraftDatabase has him at No. 26). There’s also a ton of cornerback depth in this draft (more than WR), so a good corner like Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson could very much be there at #87, whereas there might be slim pickings at receiver in the third round.

Trade back with the Houston Texans to pick #33

Trade:

• Vikings give to Texans: #23, #158 (5^th round) [787 points]
• Vikings receive: #33 (2nd round), #73 (3^rd round), #188 (6^th round) [820 points]

Selections:

• Texans select: Jordan Addison (WR, USC)
• Vikings select: #33 – Emmanuel Forbes (CB, Mississippi State), #73 – Nathaniel Dell (WR, Houston)

The Texans’ current wide receivers are Robert Woods, Noah Brown, and Nico Collins. If they take a QB at No. 2 overall, he could be in trouble without many weapons. If a top receiver like Jaxon Smith-Njibga is gone by pick #12 or they choose to draft another position there, Houston is definitely in play to trade up and grab a receiver like Quentin Johnston (if he falls), or a solid Jordan Addison or Zay Flowers. And with their 12 picks, they have the capital to jump up and make a move.

The Vikings should like the idea of trading back 10 picks since they’ll probably pick up an extra selection from a team with a ton of picks. CB Emmanuel Forbes can be expected to be there at No. 33, and he’s one of the biggest upside cornerbacks in this draft. Getting another pick in the third round is also a plus (and even better that it’s 14 picks ahead of No. 87) since it puts them in a good spot to grab a good WR now that they’ve answered CB. Nathaniel Dell is undersized but was a touchdown machine at Houston. Who knows, maybe Tennessee’s blazing fast receiver Jalin Hyatt could fall to No. 73.

Trade back with the Atlanta Falcons to pick #44

Trade:

• Vikings give to Falcons: #23, #211 (6^th round) [765 points]
• Vikings receive: #44, #75 (3^rd round), #113 (4^th round) [743 points]

Selections:

• Falcons select: #23 — Myles Murphy (ED, Clemson)
• Vikings select: #44 – Josh Downs (WR, North Carolina), #75 – DJ Turner (CB, Michigan)

This is the most “out there” and risky trade since the Vikings would be letting 43 players go before making their first selection. But they’re adding earlier third and fourth rounders in the process so I think it’s a good deal – but only if everything falls into place.

First, the Falcons would be trading up for a pass rusher in this situation, assuming they didn’t take one at No. 8. Atlanta had the worst sack percentage in the NFL last year so they need to bolster their ability to pressure opposing QBs. PFF currently projects Myles Murphy as the last first-round rusher.

With the three solid picks that the Vikings would claim from the Falcons in the trade haul, they would be in prime position address cornerback, wide receiver, and whatever else they want. But again, this is a “go big or go home” trade that would involve counting on a solid CB (Forbes) or WR (Josh Downs) to fall to No. 44. If one of those guys is there, this is a success, but if not, the Vikings may have gone back too far.

Out of these three trades, obviously the one with the highest ceiling would be the trade with the Falcons, but it could go horribly wrong if the players they want end up being off the board by the time they pick. So the trade with the Texans is probably the safest trade there for the good return.

Does Kwesi Adofo-Mensah want to take the risk of trading back or play it safe and take a solid CB or WR at No. 23? Based on last year and his number of player trades, it does not appear he is afraid to wheel and deal and that might very well be in the Vikings’ favor this year.