Formulating Vikings free agency plans, with and without Kirk Cousins
From all reports it appears the Minnesota Vikings do not know whether Kirk Cousins is going to be under center next year, which means that they will be forced to create multiple road maps for free agency based on his decision. So let’s have a look at the different routes they could take, focusing on two ways they could manage free agency if Cousins returns and two potential routes if they look to the draft for their next QB.
For our plots, we are going to use some assistance from Pro Football Focus by 1) Not including players that PFF expects to be franchise tagged 2) Using projected price tags from PFF’s top 150 free agent list (check that out here).
With Cousins
Plan 1: Fix the defense
The Vikings enter free agency in dire need of improvement along the defensive line and someone to fill the shoes of Jordan Hicks at linebacker. They could also use more depth at cornerback where one injury derailed the unit at the end of last season.
There is a win-now approach to targeting these players, so we are looking for multi-year deals that allow the Vikings to push all the money into the future and use void years to their heart’s desire. They are big-game hunting for guys who will give them the best possible chance to put together a top-ranked defense and fill a few other holes to support Cousins.
Here are the players who fit the description…
— Sign DE Danielle Hunter for 3 years, $21.7 million per year
— Sign LB Frankie Luvu for 3 years, $10 million per year
— Sign DT Grover Stewart for 3 years, $10 million per year
— Sign LB Andrew Van Ginkel for 2 years, $6.5 million per year
— Sign CB Kenny Moore for 2 years, $6.75 million per year
— Sign G Jon Runyan for 3 years, $6.67 million per year
— Sign WR Noah Brown for 2 years, $3.5 million per year
In this plan we see two linebackers who specialize in rushing the passer, which would fit nicely with Brian Flores’ dynamic shape-shifting defense. Along with those do-it-all LBs is Danielle Hunter bringing his double-digit sack machine back to Minnesota and monster defensive tackle Grover Stewart, who graded as the 22nd best DT by PFF last year to join forces with Harrison Phillips. Versatile cornerback Kenny Moore was 18th by PFF in 2023.
On the offensive side, a pass blocking guard is needed to protect Cousins. Runyan only gave up 21 pressures last year. Brown is a veteran with 76 catches over the past two seasons.
This approach would give the Vikings a much deeper pass rush and secondary than in the last few seasons and keep the offense in tact. The issue: These players will have robust markets. They may need to top these prices by a country mile on some free agents in order to convince them Minnesota is the place to be.
Image courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings
Plan 2: Go bold, go offense
In the Super Bowl we saw two excellent defenses throw haymakers at each other but the reality of the NFL in recent years is that only elite offenses get invited to championship weekend. With Cousins under center the Vikings have finished 19th, 8th, 11th, 14th, 8th and 22nd in scoring. If they want a ticket to the dance, it has to be better than that. How can they get there? By spending every last dime on offense and scraping together a few defensive helpers. Here’s what that would look like…
— Sign RB Saquon Barkley for 2 years, $11 million per year
— Sign WR Tyler Boyd for 2 years, $8.75 million per year
— Sign G Kevin Dotson for 4 years, $17.25 million per year
— Sign ED Carl Lawson for 1 year, $3.15 million
— Sign ED AJ Epenesa for 3 years, $6.75 million per year
— Sign DT DaQuan Jones for 1 year, $6 million
Who among Vikings fans hasn’t dreamed of a $17 million dollar guard? Dotson was the highest graded run blocker in the league by PFF in 2023. Add that together with one of the truly special running backs in the NFL and you have yourself an instantly scary run game to combine with a quality passing attack. Boyd got left behind a bit last season in the Cincinnati offense but he has been a key weapon for Joe Burrow in the past. With this offense the Vikings would have a realistic shot at pushing for the top five. On the defensive side they would need to take some longer shots and hope they worked out. The onus would have to be on Flores to draft/develop/scheme them to a quality defense again in 2024.
Without Cousins
Slow play it
If the Vikings draft a quarterback they could look at the 2025 free agency period as the time to go all-in because Cousins will still carry a $28 million dead cap hit in 2024. In that case they could aim for players in free agency who are under 27 years old who could have serious upside. It would be similar to landing Byron Murphy Jr. and Marcus Davenport last offseason — one of which worked out and the other did not. Here’s what that might look like…
— Sign QB Gardner Minshew for 2 years, $8.75 million per year
— Sign ED Josh Uche for 1 year, $7.25 million
— Sign DT Javon Kinlaw for 1 year, $5.5 million
— Sign CB Keisean Nixon for 2 years, $4.25 million per year
— Sign ED Dorance Armstrong for 3 years, $8.5 million per year
— Sign G John Simpson for 2 years, $5.25 million per year
— Sign WR Darnell Mooney for 1 year, $9 million
In this scenario the Vikings would hope to hit on a couple of these high upside players and make them foundational parts of the future. The sacrifice is that the free agency moves would be unlikely to put the Vikings in the driver’s seat of the NFC North right away with their young QB or potentially with Minshew guiding the ship for one season while a rookie develops. This approach would open the door for tons of money to be spent in 2025 though.
Spend that future cap space, baby
Win now and later? It can be done. It would require the Vikings using all the same tactics as with a Cousins win-now plan except around a cheaper quarterback and the expectation would still be to select a quarterback to develop for a year or two before playing. In this universe the Vikings sign mostly multi-year deals that push all the money to the 2025 and beyond in order to gather a mass of talent. Here’s what that could look like…
— Sign Baker Mayfield for 3 years, $25 million per year
— Sign DT Justin Madubuike for 4 years, $23 million per year
— Sign CB Kendall Fuller for 3 years, $13.3 million per year
— Sign ED Bryce Huff for 3 years, $16.67 million per year
— Sign C/G Connor Williams for 1 year, $6 million
— Sign RB Tony Pollard for 3 years, $8 million per year
— Sign Gabe Davis for 1 year, $12 million
Adding Mayfield for three years might seem crazy but the Seahawks structured Geno Smith’s deal to essentially be year-to-year when they extended him after a strong 2022 season. The Vikings could do the same with the hope that Mayfield could lead them into contention as he did with Tampa Bay but still look for their rookie draft pick to eventually take the reigns. This plan also looks to stack up a monster defensive line and improve the run game along with adding a legit deep threat for the strong-armed Mayfield in Gabe Davis.
Conclusions
In free agency imagination land where everyone we want to signs agrees to a deal and all the signings work out, the option to bring back Cousins and take one last run at glory seems very enticing. In reality there are 31 other teams competing for a small number of difference-making free agents, which makes any let’s-go-crazy plot in free agency difficult to execute.
The direction that could most realistically get the Vikings into contention with Cousins also seems like the least likely to happen because the defense is so short on talent and the best possible long-term approach to this year’s free agency (slow play) is the one that would be the least exciting.
One thing we do know is that last year’s offseason of letting veteran players walk may have felt like the franchise circling the drain but they are given a chance over the next two offseasons to be players in the free agent market in part because of those short-term sacrifices.
