Future of the Vikings, Part 6: Running backs
Welcome to another edition of the Future of the Vikings series. This time we take a look at a unit that disappointed in 2023: The running backs. Do they have room for improvement in house? Do they have to look elsewhere? Let’s dive in…
Alexander Mattison
Early in the offseason the Vikings signed Mattison back to a two-year, $7 million contract, indicating that they planned to move on from Dalvin Cook and make Mattison RB1. One of those two moves ended up working out. Cook struggled mightily with the New York Jets but Mattison did not emerge as the quality starting running back they hoped he would become.
He finished with 700 yards on 180 carries (3.9 YPA) and finished with the second lowest PFF grade among starting running backs. Mattison was a non-factor in the pass game, catching just 30 passes for 192 yards and registering the highest percentage of dropped passes in the NFL among RBs. As far as whether to blame blocking for Mattison’s issues, NFLNextGen stats’ Rushing Yards Over Expected lists Mattison as gaining minus-0.25 yards per carry versus what he would have been expected to get based on the blocking. That was 15th lowest in the NFL. By the end of the year, Ty Chandler was getting the lion’s share of the carries.
Mattison is under contract through 2024. He has a $4.6 million cap hit, most of which would be dead money if the Vikings cut him. As a rotational player and spot starter, Mattison has proven to be solid but putting the entire weight of the running game on his shoulders proved to be too much.
Vikings running backs coach Curtis Modkins alongside Alexander Mattison (2).
Image courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings
Ty Chandler
The main sentiment from Chandler’s 2023 season was: Why didn’t they play him sooner? The 2022 fifth-rounder added a bolt of lightning to the rushing attack late in the season when he started against Cincinnati, gaining 132 yards on 23 rushes, the lone 100-yard game of the season by a RB for the Vikings. He flashed tremendous burst and shiftiness and more toughness than you would expect from a guy who ran a 4.38 40-yard dash. Overall Chandler gained 461 yards 102 carries and caught 21 passes for 159 yards. In terms of the underlying stats he graded 76.3 (out of 100) by PFF, around 15 points higher than Mattison.
The Vikings’ reasoning for not playing Chandler more was that he needed to be ready to handle the entire offense, including pass protection. Indeed, it was a significant issue when he did get in the game. Per PFF, he allowed nine pressures, four of which were sacks, on just 62 pass blocking snaps and graded 40th of 57 RBs.
Chandler is on his rookie contract for two more seasons and should be in consideration for taking on the full-time RB1 position next year. However, he shouldn’t be the only answer the Vikings have in the backfield.
Cam Akers
The Vikings acquired Akers from the Rams early in the season and mixed him in with Mattison from Week 4 through Week 9 when he suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. He wasn’t effective when he was in the game, gaining just 2.8 yards per carry. It was a far cry from the 2022 version of Akers, who gained 4.2 YPC for Los Angeles.
Akers is a free agent. It’s not impossible that he could return to the Vikings but unlikely considering he is coming off two Achilles tears since 2021.
Kene Nwangwu
Coming into training camp the team hoped that Nwangwu could make enough noise to become a rotational player in the backfield but he suffered a back injury that kept him out for half the season. When he did come back, it was almost exclusively as a kick returner. Nwangwu ran just five times for 13 yards. He was not an impact returner in the same way that he was in 2021 or 2022, averaging 25.3 yards per return on 15 tries with a long of 47 yards.
It does not appear there is a future for Nwangwu as anything more than a returner. Next season is the final year of his rookie contract. If he’s healthy there will be more opportunities to be a difference maker on special teams, assuming he’s on the roster.
CJ Ham
The Vikings’ fullback has undergone quite a transformation in role since the end of the Zimmer era. In 2023 Kevin O’Connell switched him from plowing run blocker to a pass protection specialist. He was used particularly on pure passing situations in favor of the running backs and was quite effective in that job, producing a 74.8 PFF grade on 57 pass blocking snaps. Ham was also a key player on special teams.
He is under contract for the next two seasons at $3.2 million in 2024 and $3.1 million on the cap for 2024 and 2025. The team could move on if they feel like Ham isn’t a good fit in the offense but the fact that he wears many hats on special teams and offense should keep him employed.
Free agency options
Buyer beware when it comes to testing the free agency market for running backs as many players who hit the market are on the downswing of their careers. However, this year’s free agency market features a number of runners who have been RB1s in the past. If the Vikings were interested in trying to make a major upgrade to find a workhorse, here are some free agents they could consider…
Dallas, Tony Pollard (267 carries, 1,067 yards, 4.0 YPC, 7 TD, 77.5 PFF grade)
New York Giants, Saquon Barkley (247 carries, 962 yards, 3.9 YPC, 6 TD, 70.2 grade)
Las Vegas, Josh Jacobs (233 carries, 805 yards, 3.5 YPC, 6 TD, 65.0 grade)
Houston, Devin Singletary (238 carries, 986 yards, 4.1 YPC, 5 TD, 75.1 grade)
Philadelphia, D’Andre Swift (239 carries, 1,083 yards, 4.5 YPC, 5 TD, 66.5 grade)
Los Angeles Chargers, Austin Ekler (179 carries, 632 yards, 3.5 YPC, 5 TD, 60.2 grade)
Tennessee, Derrick Henry (280 carries, 1,167 yards, 4.2 YPC, 12 TD, 90.2 grade)
If the Vikings instead choose to look for a veteran who can solidify the RB room with Ty Chandler and Alexander Mattison, here are some role players they may look at…
Indianapolis, Zack Moss (184 carries, 793 yards, 4.3 YPC, 5 TD, 66.9 grade)
Washington, Antonio Gibson (65 carries, 265 yards, 4.1 YPC, 1 TD, 66.6 grade)
Baltimore, Gus Edwards (208 carries, 850 yards, 4.1 YPC, 13 TD, 73.2 grade)
Draft options
With only two top-100 draft picks, the Vikings are very unlikely to look at running back as a high priority in the first three rounds. There are always Day 3 targets though. Here are some of the most notable names projected by Mock Draft Database between picks 100 and 160:
The bottom line
The Vikings have a decision to make: Do they go into 2024 with Chandler as their main running back and try to support him with Mattison and another veteran or will they aim to find a true RB1 in free agency?
