Future of the Vikings, Part 8: The timeline
Welcome to the final edition of our Future of the Vikings series. This time we look at the timeline and the different ways the franchise could look at their current situation with an open quarterback position and a division on the rise. Let’s dive in…
“Competitive rebuild”
It isn’t often that a general manager lays out the team’s plans in such a clear way as the “competitive rebuild” description provided by Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. When Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell took over in 2022, the ownership wanted to give the 2021 roster another chance because the general feeling inside the building was that they were sabotaged by drama and dysfunction.
So they extended Kirk Cousins, added veteran Za’Darius Smith, brought back Patrick Peterson and took another swing with most of the Zimmer/Spielman roster. It started out in magical fashion with the Vikings destroying Green Bay in Week 1 and rolling to an 8-1 start that included a signature comeback against the Buffalo Bills. Reality set in during the second half of the season and the Vikings went 5-3 the rest of the way and then they came up short against the New York Giants in the opening round of the playoffs.
The prevailing question of whether the last-dance approach to 2022 was worth it wasn’t easy to answer. There were plenty of memorable moments but the Vikings ultimately produced a negative point differential and failed to advance past Wild Card Weekend. The goal was to compete for the Super Bowl, not be happy with a fun regular season. It would have been better for the long run if they began a long-term plan from Day 1.
Waiting to tear down the old to make room for the new resulted in a rocky 2023 season. The “rebuild” part really hit hard when they parted ways with Peterson, Dalvin Tomlinson, Adam Thielen, Za’Darius Smith, Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks and Dalvin Cook. A 4-4 start to the season made it seem as if splitting the difference might allow them to reach the playoffs and watch a bunch of young players emerge as quality starters. But Cousins’ torn Achilles threw a wrench in those plans. The backup quarterback play wasn’t good enough and eventually the thin defense fell apart with injuries.
The last two years have led the Vikings to a crossroads. The “competitive rebuild” has not put them in position to be Super Bowl favorites heading into 2024 even if they extend Cousins and do everything possible in free agency. But they have too much talent to tank in 2024 and plan to pick their next quarterback.
Is the answer to bring back Cousins on a two-year deal and hope to return to the postseason in 2024 and truly compete around draft picks and signings in 2025? Is it to draft a quarterback and find a bridge QB who can keep them in the mix for 2024 and then spend like crazy in the offseason prior to 2025 with the cap space created by Cousins’ exit?
If they retain Cousins, how will they fill all the current needs? In order to even fill out a starting lineup they must add: Edge rusher (x2), defensive tackle, linebacker, cornerback, No. 3 wide receiver, left guard, running back.
If they draft a quarterback and sign a bridge QB, what are realistic expectations for 2024? Would ownership be patient through another 7-10 season if it meant progress in the long run? “Competitive rebuild” sounds great until you hit the “rebuild” part.
When the brass took over and gave Cousins the shortest extension possible and then did not extend him again last offseason, it seemed that all roads were leading to the 2024 draft class. It would be a thematic move to spend their highest draft pick since 2015 on a QB but it’s possible that everyone was spooked by the 7-10 season in 2023 and is afraid of the pressure that might come along with another non-competitive year.
How the Vikings interpret where they stand within the “competitive rebuild” plan that was hatched from Day 1 will determine the entire direction of the franchise going forward. And we will have an answer by mid-March when they make a decision on Cousins’ future in purple.
Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell (right) with general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah (left) during the 2023 season-ending press conference.
Image courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings
The division
Assuming the Vikings’ owners and decision makers were among the many millions who watched the NFC playoffs this year, it would have been impossible to miss the presence of the NFC North. Not only were the Detroit Lions up 14 points on the San Francisco 49ers in the second half with a team largely built on recent draft picks but the Green Bay Packers also nearly took down the 49ers behind their first-year starting quarterback Jordan Love, who looked nothing short of a star in the second half of the season and during the Packers’ playoff win in Dallas.
Combined with the Chicago Bears drafting No. 1 and No. 9 overall and having begun using their cap space to stock talent in the form of DJ Moore and Montez Sweat, the Vikings could be looking at playing in one of the NFL’s most difficult divisions for years to come. The Lions are retaining their top-notch offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, the Packers were the youngest team in the NFL in 2023 and Chicago has an opportunity to flip its long-tortured QB history on its head with the top selection.
It would be madness for the Vikings not to consider the strength of their opposition when making decisions this offseason.
Weighing the timelines of division foes doesn’t have to point toward moving on from Cousins in favor of a longer-term approach but they would need a clear plan for the remainder of the roster. Through the years Cousins has repeatedly put up good numbers and high PFF scores but hasn’t taken them over the top in part because of weaknesses in other areas, whether it was the offensive line or defensive side, the depth chart has often resembled a game of whack-a-mole where one position gets fixed and another issue crops up.
Of course, the tough division could be problematic for a bridge QB or rookie starter too. It would take a lot of things going right in order to finish anywhere but last in the North in 2024 if they lean into a rebuild-y plan. In the subsequent years that may pay out big dividends and help them catch up in the North race but in the short term it would put a strain on the organization.
“Full Rams”
One of the ways to climb out of “competitive rebuild” mode and combat their strong division rivals would be to go “Full Rams,” as it was once coined by Adofo-Mensah. He made the comment about the risks involved with the approach taken by the 2021 Rams in which they traded away tons of draft capital to acquire Matthew Stafford, Jalen Ramsey and Von Miller. They won the Super Bowl in 2021 and then went 15-19 in the next two seasons. Had they lost in the playoffs, it would have meant total disaster for L.A.
The Vikings have enough offensive talent in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill to go “Full Rams” around Cousins if they so choose. They could back up a Brink’s truck to Danielle Hunter’s house and any other free agent who could help them immediately and look for any available trades for disgruntled stars. The reality of the NFL salary cap is that any team can push money down the road to squeeze in players if they are OK with dealing with the ramifications that follow.
It’s possible the Vikings could look at defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ performance in 2023 as proof that they just need a few high end players and then they can recreate where the offense was in Week 8 at the time Cousins tore his Achilles and they would have a Super Bowl contender.
That is some very serious wishful thinking that would have potentially catastrophic consequences for years to come.
How much time do they have?
Whether the Vikings can look down the road toward 2025 as a season to be back in contention depends on how much time ownership is willing to give the leadership. It was reported that Adofo-Mensah signed a four-year deal when he was hired, which is short by industry standard but the NFL is year-to-year for everyone in charge. In order to slow play the “competitive rebuild” the Wilfs would need to believe that the folks running the show can get them from Point A to Point B without trying to circumvent the process with free agency/trade hacks.
There are examples of teams buying into decision makers through thick and think and having it pay dividends. Kyle Shanahan’s tenure in San Francisco began with three of his first four seasons resulting in six wins or fewer. They have won 35 games in the last three years and return to the Super Bowl next week. Marvin Lewis twice rebuilt the Bengals around a young quarterback. Buffalo suffered a 6-10 season after making the playoffs in Sean McDermott’s first year and they have won the division around Josh Allen every year since.
The Vikings seem to have the strength within the walls of TCO Performance Center to push through ups and downs. The players have voted their culture in high regard when polled by the NFLPA and they have enough talent on offense to set up a rookie to succeed.
Trust and patience are not things billionaire owners are generally known for but it hasn’t been forever since this ownership saw a rebuild. The Vikings drafted Teddy Bridgewater in 2014 and went 7-9 and then quickly got back on track in 2015.
Can they buy that as a way forward? Or will fear of failing with a draft pick be too strong?
We will find out soon which way they choose…
