How injuries will change the dynamics of Vikings-Saints
Maybe it’s a coincidence but the Minnesota Vikings have lost more games than you would expect in recent years to backup quarterbacks. Whether it’s Nick Foles in the NFC Championship game, Chase Daniel for Chicago, Matt Moore in Kansas City or The Cooper Rush Game last year, the Vikings have had a tendency to stumble against QB2s.
This week it appears the Vikings will see another journeyman backup — one of whom they are quite familiar having played him each of the last two years. Let’s have a look at the New Orleans Saints’ QB situation and other injuries that will impact Sunday’s game.
Andy Dalton likely to start
As far as backup quarterbacks go, it’s hard to find many better than Andy Dalton, who is expected to play against the Vikings with starter Jameis Winston listed as “doubtful.” The former Bengal has been to the Pro Bowl three times in his career and led Cincinnati to double-digit wins four seasons in a row from 2012-2015.
The days of Dalton being considered a solid starter may be in the past but he’s won seven of 15 starts between Dallas and Chicago over the last two years. One of those victories came in 2020 against the Vikings. He lost at US Bank Stadium last year with the Bears.
Dalton’s numbers over the last two years are not particularly impressive. He’s averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt, posted a 22:17 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws, according to PFF.
But his quick-passing, risk-averse nature might play in the Saints’ favor in comparison to Winston. In the last two seasons Dalton has produced a turnover-worthy play at about half the rate of Winston, who currently leads the league in interceptions. Dalton also had the fifth lowest average depth of target in the NFL last year, compared to Winston who is throwing the ball through the air farther downfield on average than any other QB this year.
The Vikings have played defensively in a way that allows quick throws. Opposing QBs have the fifth highest completion percentage against them so far. The Saints have also failed to get running back Alvin Kamara involved in the passing game thus far (five catches, 19 yards). Dalton may lean on him more heavily, assuming he’s able to play. Kamara is listed as questionable.
It’s hard to say whether there is an actual QB2 curse for the Vikings (probably not?) but in this case the Saints may be more of a threat to Minnesota playing Dalton than a banged-up Winston.
Michael Thomas, Andrus Peat and Marcus Maye out
Over the past few years the Saints have gotten used to playing without Michael Thomas but his absence is no small loss. Through three games he is New Orleans’ highest graded receiver by PFF and has three of their four passing touchdowns. With Jarvis Landry also dinged up (listed as questionable), the pressure may end up on the shoulders of rookie Chris Olave. He has adapted quickly to the NFL with a team-leading 17 receptions for 268 yards, 147 of which came last week against Carolina. The Saints do have a capable next-man-up in Marquez Callaway, who grabbed 46 passes for nearly 700 yards last season, but the Vikings’ shaky secondary catches a break without Thomas in the mix.
Guard Andrus Peat will also miss the game. His likely replacement is former Oregon Duck Calvin Throckmorton. There may be a drop off in talent and experience but Throckmorton isn’t completely new having played nearly 1,000 snaps last season. However, he graded by PFF as the worst starting guard in the NFL. The other backup guard on the Saints’ roster, coincidentally, is Wyatt Davis.
Marcus Maye’s absence is no small loss for the Saints. In 72 coverage snaps this year he did not allow a reception into his coverage. Maye’s replacement PJ Williams has allowed more yardage into his coverage than anyone else in the Saints’ secondary — and that’s on only 56 coverage snaps. While New Orleans’ approach to handling Justin Jefferson will be at center stage, there should be opportunities to take advantage for the Vikings’ receivers.
Dalvin Cook will play
The Vikings’ starting running back missed Wednesday’s practice after suffering a shoulder injury against the Detroit Lions last week. He fully participated on Thursday and Friday. The Pro Bowl runner has dealt with similar injuries in the past, playing the end of last season with a harness. He has 203 yards on 43 carries (4.7 yards per attempt) this season. If Cook isn’t at 100%, Alexander Mattison has proven to be a reliable backup and we could see the debut of kick returner Kene Nwangwu as a runner.
Za’Darius Smith is a game-time decision
The Vikings’ leader in pressures is a big swing player for this game. Ed Donatell’s defense has committed to largely rushing four defensive linemen, which could put a ton of pressure on Danielle Hunter to be a one-man pass rush if Smith can’t go.
DJ Wonnum is the most likely next edge rusher in line, though the Vikings have also mixed in Patrick Jones routinely throughout the first three games. Between them, in situational roles, they have a solid rate of 11 pressures on 82 pass rush snaps (per PFF).
The interior of the Vikings’ defensive line has not been effective at pressuring the QB outside of Dalvin Tomlinson, who has seven pressures. Between Harrison Phillips, Ross Blacklock, James Lynch and Jonathan Bullard, they have five total pressures. The Vikings will need more from them if Smith can’t play.
Harrison Smith returns
Smith missed last week with a concussion. He practiced in full all week and is expected to play against the Saints. Josh Metellus filled in admirably but Smith gives Donatell more potential tricks in his bag than the first-time starter.
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