How the explosion of receiver salaries impacts Justin Jefferson
If you could earn a living based on the ability to imagine worst-case scenarios, Minnesota Vikings fans would all be millionaires.
So, naturally, Justin Jefferson’s future is on Minnesotans’ minds as they see elite receivers getting their hands on mega contracts this offseason. The numbers are astronomical to the point that they are approaching quarterback levels of pay scale. Oh and some top-notch receivers are picking their own destinations, too.
Combine that with the franchise’s track record of keeping all-world receivers and you have some anxiety about what is to come with Jefferson. Randy Moss became a Raider, Stefon Diggs was traded to Buffalo. Heck, Jake Reed even exited for the Saints after playing a key role on the ‘99 team.
Unlike Moss’s replacement, the Vikings landed one of the NFL’s best receivers in Jefferson to fill the shoes of their Minneapolis Miracle man. Over his first two seasons, Jefferson ranked as Pro Football Focus’s No. 2 and 3 best receiver. Here’s the list of receivers who have gained more receiving yards than Jefferson in the last two years: Nobody.
In terms of value provided on the field versus salary cap hit, Jefferson has an argument as the best non-QB deal in the NFL. His rookie and sophomore seasons carried cap hits of $2.3 and $2.9 million. This year that number jumps up to $3.5 million. What is he actually worth? Well, the Dolphins acquired Chiefs star Tyreek Hill and signed him to a contract averaging $30 million per year and carrying cap hits of above $24 million every year between 2023-2025. Hill is set to take up 13.9% of Miami’s estimated cap in 2023, which isn’t a far cry from Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (16.1% in 2023).
Hill isn’t an outlier. Former Packers receiver Davante Adams, who pushed his way out of Green Bay to his all-time favorite team the Las Vegas Raiders, has a new deal with a 2023 cap hit of $30.5 million (13.6%). That’s right in line with Arizona’s DeAndre Hopkins ($30.7 million hit in 2023), who also was traded by the team that drafted him.
We can pretty confidently say that Jefferson would land $30 million or more per year if the Vikings had to extend him today.
Lucky for the cap-strapped Vikings, they don’t have to extend him today. Jefferson is entering the third year of his rookie contract and there isn’t a thing in the world he can do to escape being one of the most underpaid athletes in the world relative to his peers. But after the 2022 season, he can negotiate an extension with the Vikings. Or, should he choose, Jefferson can start the process of forcing his way out.
He can technically be under team control through his fifth-year option but if we have learned anything recently about the NFL it’s that when a player wants out, they get out. Call it the NBA-ization of the league. Did you hear that Deebo Samuel removed all references to the 49ers from his social media pages?
So we all agree that the Vikings should move heaven and earth to make sure Jefferson is the happiest ice-fishing, Jucy Lucy-eating, State Fair-attending Minnesotan that he can be over the next year, right?
Well, there is a 3D-chess angle here that might make Vikings fans less terrified of the future. Often times moving a young superstar who is about to get paid Charles Foster Kane dollars works out for both teams. The Raiders got a haul for Khalil Mack. The New York Jets robbed Seattle blind in the Jamal Adams trade. Minkah Fitzpatrick turned into a first-round draft pick for the Dolphins. And Stefon Diggs, well, ya know.
The concept has been floated recently that quality receivers are becoming more and more prevalent in the draft, therefore these $30 million deals aren’t worth it. It has become accepted to apply that line of thinking to the quarterback position, especially with a run of teams who saw team success despite their QB draft picks being mediocre i.e. Jared Goff’s Rams and Carson Wentz’s Eagles.
The difference is that QBs either get paid full price or no price. They are getting $35-$40 million or they get backup money. There are plenty of mid-tier receivers. There are almost no mid-tier quarterbacks. If there were, the Rookie QB Contract hack wouldn’t exist. Would you rather have two mid-tier receivers and a first-round receiver for the price of one? It’s worth considering (or preemptively rationalizing).
But Jefferson isn’t just good, he’s the elite of the elite of the elite. Coverages do not matter against him. Shutdown corners do not matter against him. Nobody has figured out how to take him away on third downs, red zone, game-on-the-line situations. There’s no model for slowing him down and no sign in sight of that changing. If a player at the most valuable non-QB position can someday put on a gold jacket, you can’t simply replace him with mid-tier players, cap space and draft picks. Remember, the Vikings could have just as easily ended up with Jalen Reagor instead of Jefferson.
It’s very difficult to quantify the impact of someone like Jefferson on his quarterback. What would Kirk Cousins’ numbers look like if the Vikings had picked the wrong Diggs replacement? Did Josh Allen wake up one day like Henry Rowengartner in Rookie of the Year and just start firing bullets out of nowhere or did Diggs take him to an All-Pro level? If the QB’s play is the most important thing, why wouldn’t the guy who makes the QB play better be almost as important?
So what can the Vikings do about Jefferson’s future? Are they helpless?
One thing they can do is win.
The $30 million-per-year price (or higher) isn’t going to change but the key could simply be Jefferson wanting to be a Viking for life. After Diggs signed his recent extension, he said, “I didn’t want to go anywhere else.” The wings are great in Buffalo but having the league’s top Vegas Super Bowl odds heading into 2022 is more delicious.
The Vikings’ timeline should be set up with Jefferson in mind. By the end of next year, will he believe the franchise can compete for championships? It’s hard to say whether that is a better argument for why the team should have rebuilt or why they chose to go with a “competitive” rebuild but he needs to see the path to a Lombardi Trophy. Jefferson doesn’t strike you as a guy who’s cool with a lot of catches on an 8-9 team.
The front office needs also to align the salary cap to handle his first year of $30-plus million, which would likely be 2024 should he sign an extension after next year. It appears they have already done that to some extent with a number of the core players’ deals setting up for an exit after 2023. But if they are losing core players to age and price after 2023, will Jefferson’s side be able to envision where the next phase of the roster can go?
That ties into a few things: The future of the QB position, this year’s draft and new head coach Kevin O’Connell.
Kirk Cousins’ deal takes him through 2023. That means if Jefferson and the team started working toward an extension following next season, Cousins’ future would still be unclear unless the Vikings draft a quarterback this year or extend Cousins before Jefferson. That’s quite the tightrope to walk. Only he knows how he feels about Cousins but we can guess how he’d feel about total uncertainty at the position.
This year’s draft makes a difference because the writing has to be on the wall that this thing is going toward something great. Right now the Vikings’ Vegas over-under is either 8.5 or 9 wins, depending on where you look. That doesn’t scream Team Of The Future. But we know that teams in the middle are one good draft class away from getting into real contention. The 2015 Vikings draft with Trae Waynes, Eric Kendricks, Danielle Hunter and Stefon Diggs was that kind of transformational draft. And it was apparent after the 2015 season.
While answers at QB and a trending-up roster would be helpful in the effort to keep Jefferson for the long haul, the coaching situation may be No. 1 on the list. Last year, Mike Zimmer sealed his fate when he dumped on Jefferson’s chase for Moss’s single-season receiving record. O’Connell comes from a team that just won the Super Bowl on the back of an elite receiver in Cooper Kupp. Belief in O’Connell’s coaching style and system may transcend other elements of the roster.
We’re a long way from finding that out though. For now, Jefferson is heading into a season in which he could separate himself as having one of the all-time great beginnings to an NFL career. The team hasn’t taken a step back to rebuild, it has made an active push to get back to the playoffs. Many things that would determine Jefferson’s fate are yet to be decided. He might already know what he wants or it might be the farthest thing from his mind.
This is one of those rare instances where Vikings fans have to put aside their anxieties for a while and see how the new regime handles the next year before they decide that Jefferson is a goner.
