How the Vikings can reach their ceiling in 2022
A new season is on the horizon and for the first time in a few years, there are some unknowns with the Minnesota Vikings. During the Mike Zimmer/Kirk Cousins era, it was almost a foregone conclusion how the offense and defense would look, their tendencies on both sides of the ball, and ultimately their win-loss record.
With a roster that is largely the same, there will certainly be plenty of familiarity from last season but with a new coaching staff in place and a few new players at key positions, it’s just enough change to get the fanbase excited about what could be.
An exercise I’ve been doing in my mind to prep for this season is best and worst-case scenarios, so I decided to lay out the factors that will be influential in deciding whether the Vikings hit their ceiling or their floor. Let’s take a look.
The injury-prone stay healthy
Saying the Vikings need to stay healthy to actualize their best outcome is not groundbreaking analysis, but the statistics that showcase this bear repeating.
Last season, who were arguably the best two teams entering the playoffs? The Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills. Where did they rank in adjusted games lost? First and second in the league. They were the two least injured teams in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders. The Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams were fifth in that ranking. The Cincinnati Bengals were seventh. Eight of the top-12 teams in adjusted games lost made the playoffs.
On the other end of the spectrum, only two of the top-10 most injured teams made the playoffs – the San Francisco 49ers and the Las Vegas Raiders.
It backs up what we know. The best teams come the end of the season are the healthiest teams. If the Vikings hope to make a deep playoff run, they would greatly benefit from a healthier roster. Last year, Minnesota ranked 21st in adjusted games lost.
Injuries are normally considered random from year to year, but the Vikings are betting on several injury-prone players and players returning from major injuries at key positions.
Along the defensive line, Za’Darius Smith is returning after missing all but one game because of a back issue. That’s not the type of injury you want on your medical history entering the season at the age of 30. Then there’s Danielle Hunter, who’s played seven games in two seasons. He missed all of 2020 with a neck injury and 10 games with a pec injury in 2021. Before their injuries, both players had rarely missed any games in their careers. The Vikings are making a bet they can return to that form, as the depth behind them leaves some to be desired. Harrison Phillips also missed a handful of games with a torn ligament in his knee last season. The Buffalo News has a good write-up of Phillips's injury last season and his injury history, which hasn’t been a major concern in recent years, but was when Phillips came out of college.
The most concerning offensive player is Adam Thielen, who has missed 12 games over the last three seasons. In his four missed games in 2021, the Vikings passing efficiency has nosedived. Each of Minnesota’s three worst passing DVOA games came when Adam Thielen was out (Weeks 14, 15, and 17). A meaningless Week 18 game, which Thielen missed, was the only solid offensive performance of the bunch.
If the Vikings can keep Thielen relatively healthy, it does bode well for them. As recent history shows it would be better for those injuries to come on defense. In 2021, six of the bottom 12 teams in adjusted games lost on defense still made the playoffs. One of the bottom 12 teams in adjusted games lost on offense made the playoffs – the Green Bay Packers.
The only other injury-prone players on offense have been Dalvin Cook, who has missed between 2-6 games in each of the last four seasons, but Alexander Mattison has shown he is a capable fill-in and both Kene Nwangwu and Ty Chandler have flashed in their opportunities on the field. Irv Smith Jr. is also a concern as he’ll jump right into regular season play without much ramp-up time due to his hand injury during training camp.
Of course, injuries don’t just happen to the injury prone. Before Smith Jr. was sidelined for all of 2021, he had been healthy. The same goes for Smith and Hunter before their injuries. A new name could, and likely will show up on the injury report. And if they pop up at thin positions like linebacker or tight end, it could get ugly fast.
How much the Vikings can sustain now becomes the question. Minnesota still has a slim margin for error as it straddles the line of contention. Too many injuries on one side of the ball or one major injury to a key contributor are enough to throw even the most optimistic views of the upcoming season off course.
O’Connell proves his competence
The beginning of every new season, especially one with a new head coach, always brings optimism that positive change is on the horizon. For some teams that optimism is realized, but for many, the struggles continue. There’s a reason the average head coaching tenure in recent history is just around three years. Many coordinators struggle to make the jump to head coach for whatever reason, be it their leadership acumen, the increased pressure and responsibility or a lack of a capable roster around them.
O’Connell has to juggle all those things and produce in a pressurized situation, one that is contingent on the team at least making the playoffs otherwise major roster changes could be coming.
The good news is that O’Connell hasn’t shown the warning signs of previous disasters. At this point in their first years, the likes of Matt Patricia, Urban Meyer and Joe Judge had already showcased the flaws that later left them jobless. O’Connell seems to be handling the off-field part of being a coach well.
Now the on-field performance must follow, notably on the offensive side of the ball.
There are several areas that O’Connell could look to improve for a unit that was middle of the pack last season. The Vikings finished 14th in points per game, 12th in yards, 16th in DVOA and 11th in PFF grade.
The first key will be further emphasizing the Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson connection. Two weeks ago, I looked at some intriguing numbers that illustrated their effectiveness in the slot. Despite being one of the most efficient tandems in the league when Jefferson was lined up in the slot, Minnesota hardly used it. It follows a trend that O’Connell can follow. There were good things that happened in this offense in years past, now just lean into it a little more. The Vikings have been one of the most-run happy teams over the last three seasons, according to Sharp Football Analysis. Moving those tendencies to league-average pass-run splits could mean the difference. Especially since the Vikings struggled to run the ball. In 2021, they ranked 27th in rush DVOA compared to 12th in pass DVOA. They ranked 17th in yards per carry and 26th in PFF run grade.
It doesn’t mean O’Connell needs to turn the offense into the Buccaneers’, the pass-heaviest in the league, but small changes would indicate O’Connell is committed to modernizing this offense. Those are the types of tweaks that are necessary to take this offense from league average into the top-10, a realistic outcome for this group given its talent. If the Vikings put together a top-10 offense that would go a long way in reaching their best-case scenario.
The defense survives
The defense crumbled in the last two years of the Mike Zimmer era. In 2021 they allowed 25.1 points per game, 24th in the NFL. In 2020, they allowed 29.7, 28th in the league. What was once known as the catalyst for the Vikings' success quickly became its downfall.
With a new coach at the helm of this defense for the first time since 2013, the defense no longer needs or should be expected to be the driver of this organization. It just needs to survive.
Among the necessary improvements is run defense. In 2021, the Vikings allowed 4.7 yards per rush, second-worst in the NFL behind the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were in the bottom half of PFF rush defense grade and among the six worst teams in rush defense DVOA. The addition of Harrison Phillips figures to help as Phillips ranked 8th in the NFL in run stop win rate last season.
It becomes even more important because of another questionable cornerback group. Patrick Peterson returns for another season but was hardly a commodity this offseason, forced to return on a cheap one-year deal. Cam Dantzler could improve in his third season but his physical limitations firmly supplanted him in the average category. Then it comes down to unknown rookies in Andrew Booth Jr. and Akayleb Evans, along with slot cornerback Chandon Sullivan.
The Vikings were gashed often in the passing game, allowing the fifth-most yards to opposing passers, however their efficiency stats weren’t bad. They ranked 13th in pass DVOA and graded as PFF’s 18th-best coverage unit.
The key will be avoiding disasters at any position. Minnesota cannot have another Breshaud Breeland that teams can take advantage of. Again, the goal is to survive. Anything more from this defensive roster feels like an outlandish goal. If Minnesota can repeat its efficiency marks while eliminating any glaring holes in coverage, it can be an average unit. That’s all they need.
Best- and worst-case scenario
The Vikings’ best-case scenario involves Kevin O’Connell reimagining the offense just enough to make them a top-10 unit and the defense staying largely healthy. While the roster talent remains a step below the top Super Bowl contenders, there’s no reason Minnesota can’t split their season series with the Packers and potentially win the division. If everything breaks right, a 12-5 season is in play. However, a couple of injuries pop up and O’Connell goes through the growing pains that most new head coaches go through, this team could miss the playoffs for the third straight year and go 6-11.
Remember, only 24 of 84 new head coaches have made the playoffs in their first year. That’s 28.6 percent. Only seven of those have made it past the Wild Card round. Yet O’Connell walks into a situation that is unique for a first-year head coach, one that is set up to win right away. With a weak division and conference in general, O’Connell’s Vikings are better set up to buck the general trend and make the playoffs in their first year.
