Key matchups and stats for every game on the Vikings' schedule
The NFL announced its schedule on Thursday evening so let’s have a closer look at the matchups that will determine how the Vikings’ season turns out and our best guesses for how each game will go…
WEEK 1: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key matchup: Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey vs. Vikings guards
Key stat: Vikings guards allowed 111 QB pressures last season, most in the NFL
The Bucs were an above average team in terms of getting after the quarterback last season with 45 sacks and the 11th best pressure rate. In the draft they added a productive, lightning-quick rusher in Kancey to go along with the beastly Vea, who had a career-high 6.5 sacks in 2022. That could cause serious problems for the Vikings if their guards fail to take a step forward this season. However, the Bucs are a team in transition post-Brady, which gives the Vikings a good chance to overcome problems caused by Tampa’s defensive line.
Prediction: Vikings win (1-0)
Tampa Bay isn’t an inspiring first opponent but one that should help the Vikings start the season on the right foot.
WEEK 2: AT Philadelphia Eagles
Key matchup: Eagles trenches vs. Vikings trenches
Key stat: Both Philly tackles and their center ranked in the top 10 at their position by PFF and their defense led the NFL in sacks
After mauling people on the way to the Super Bowl, the Eagles once again have a completely stacked roster, starting on the offensive and defensive lines. On the O-line have talent, chemistry and a scheme that plays to their strengths. On defense they have a deep pen of pass rushers and added another one in the draft. The Vikings were taken to task up front in their matchup vs. Philly in primetime and they will have an uphill climb to outplay them on the road this year.
Prediction: Eagles win (1-1)
The Eagles did have some offseason turnover but all the things that made them great in 2022 are back for another year, this one won’t be easy for the Vikings.
WEEK 3: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Key matchup: Justin Jefferson vs. Derwin James
Key stat: James and Jefferson have both ranked top 10 at their positions in every full season they have played
A battle of former McVay coaches, the Vikings and Chargers will match up two of the best players in the NFL against each other. While James isn’t a cornerback who is going to track Jefferson all over the field, we can expect that he will be involved in double teams, blitzes and lots of deception aimed at getting Cousins to throw elsewhere. While the ex-Rams coaches and superstars will be on the marquee, this matchup also features another coach who has shredded the Vikings in the past: New Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
Prediction: Vikings win (2-1)
This game is a coin flip. Both teams have talent on offense and expectations to raise the bar defensively in 2023. You could see Justin Herbert lighting up the Vikings or Kirk Cousins outplaying Brandon Staley’s defense like he did in L.A. in 2021. Slight edge goes to the Vikings playing at home.
WEEK 4: AT Carolina Panthers
Key matchup: Bryce Young vs. the blitz
Key stat: Brian Flores’ defense blitzed 40% of the time in 2021
It’s impossible to prognosticate how the No. 1 overall pick will adjust to the NFL but we can say that rookie quarterbacks have a difficult time adapting to the NFL’s complicated blitzes. Nobody loves to dial them up like Flores.
Prediction: Vikings win (3-1)
The best time to play Bryce Young is early in the season. Even if he’s destined to become a superstar it’s unlikely he will have his feet underneath him by the fourth week of the season.
WEEK 5: vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Key matchup: Mahomes vs. Brian Flores
Key stat: Mahomes is 33-9 with a 110.4 career QB rating on the road
The last time the Vikings played the Chiefs, Mahomes missed the game and Matt Moore led Kansas City to victory at Arrowhead. Assuming he’s healthy, this will be the first time since he entered the league that Mahomes starts at US Bank Stadium. The road environment won’t be a factor for him though. The Chiefs’ megastar has a higher QB rating and averages more yards per game on the road than at home. Brian Flores’ defense will face a test in KC’s offense that few have ever passed. Can Flores dial up pressures or looks that give the league’s best quarterback pause? Or will the Vikings have to drop 40 to have a chance?
Prediction: Chiefs win (3-2)
Sometimes the best team of the decade is on your schedule and that’s not ideal.
WEEK 6: AT Chicago Bears
Key matchup: Chicago’s new linebackers vs. Vikings (possibly) new running backs
Key stat: TJ Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds both ranked in the top 11 by PFF grade last year
Chicago spent huge money to sign Edwards and Edmunds, giving head coach Matt Eberflus similar personnel at that position to his days as a top-notch defensive coach in Indy. If the Vikings move on from Dalvin Cook, they will have a running back committee for the first time in a long time. How Alex Mattison and Co. improve on last year’s mediocre running game could make a big difference on Soldier Field’s messy turf.
Prediction: Bears win (3-3)
Soldier Field has been less of a house of horrors for the Vikings than it was in past years but Chicago may be respectable enough this season to split the series.
WEEK 7: vs. San Francisco 49ers
Key matchup: Nick Bosa vs. Christian Darrisaw
Key stat: Bosa had 18.5 sacks and won DPOY while Darrisaw ranked as PFF’s No. 2 tackle
When Bosa and Darrisaw battled in training camp practices last year it was a heavyweight fight. Now we get to see it on display at in an actual game. Not only will this be the toughest test of Darrisaw’s career as he emerges as an elite tackle but the 49ers’ defensive line has given the Vikings fits in previous matchups. Whether the Vikings can protect Cousins begins with slowing down the league’s best pass rusher. How they play against last year’s No. 1 defense will be a true test of whether the Vikings offense has taken another step in Year 2 of O’Connell.
Prediction: 49ers win (3-4)
During the Cousins era the Vikings have struggled against teams that could overwhelm their offensive line. The 49ers have the horses to do that. If the Vikings were to lose three in a row, they would be headed to Green Bay in must-win mode.
WEEK 8: AT Green Bay Packers
Key matchup: Kenny Clark vs. an improved Garrett Bradbury
Key stat: Bradbury jumped from last to 14th by PFF blocking grade
The Vikings’ center decided to return to Minnesota rather than signing elsewhere this offseason and they are happy to have him back considering his improvement from a tough 2021 season. But Packers nose tackle Kenny Clark remains a scary proposition for the veteran center. Last year Bradbury had two games where he graded by PFF well below average and one of them was Week 1 versus Clark. The Packers’ D-line is loaded and has a chance to give the Vikings’ offense plenty of fits. If the Vikings’ interior O-line handles themselves, the Vikings have a great chance to win…assuming they wear the right cleats this time.
Prediction: Vikings win (4-4)
Who knows what the vibes around the Packers will be like by Week 8. This one could have some serious energy if Jordan Love is playing well or feel like the first bleh Vikings/Packers game in a while.
WEEK 9: AT Atlanta Falcons
Key matchup: Atlanta’s running game vs. Vikings interior D-line
Key stat: Falcons ranked sixth in rushing Expected Points Added
The Vikings have a better roster than Atlanta and a much more stable quarterback situation but if there’s one weakness that should concern them it’s the Dalvin Tomlinson-less defensive line that will be tasked with stopping a dangerous Falcons running game. They were already in the top 10 in total yards, EPA and yards per attempt and they added Bijan Robinson in the first round. Arthur Smith running and play-action’ing to a big offensive day is the only way Atlanta can beat the Vikings.
Prediction: Vikings win (5-4)
The Falcons have a chance to take a step forward this year after a miserable 2023 but that’s only if Desmond Ridder is very good and their defense is formidable to hold up against strong offenses like the Vikings. For now, that seems like a long shot so the Vikings should win this one.
WEEK 10: vs. New Orleans Saints
Key matchup: Chris Olave vs. Vikings young corners
Key stat: Olave ranked 14th among all receivers in PFF grade and gained 1,044 yards as a rookie
The Vikings got absolutely throttled by elite receivers under Ed Donatell’s scheme. Five receivers went for over 100 yards vs. the Vikings in 2022 and 12 went for at least 85 yards. New year, new scheme, new secondary, same challenge with top-notch receivers. It wasn’t until after he played the Vikings that Olave became a breakout star and this time around he has a much better quarterback to deliver him the ball. Whether they can slow down Olave could very well determine the outcome of this one.
Prediction: Vikings win (6-4)
The Saints won’t be a pushover. They had a top-10 defense last year and a quarterback with a decent track record. Put this under the could-go-either-way category. And we know it’s never, ever normal when the Vikings and Saints get together.
WEEK 11: AT Denver Broncos
Key matchup: Russell Wilson vs. Father Time
Key stat: Wilson’s stats from 2022 are so hideous they are illegal to post on the internet. Now Sean Payton is tasked with fixing what ailed him last season. But if the problem was simply that he doesn’t have the physical ability to play his chaotic style anymore, it could get ugly. Whether Russ finds his magic again will determine whether the Broncos are a fairly tough road opponent or a rollover.
Prediction: Broncos win (6-5)
The Vikings have one game every year that completely shocks us. Even last year they fell way behind to a horrendous Colts team. It’s tough to predict which game it will be but losing on the road to Denver after a big win vs. the Saints makes sense.
WEEK 12: vs. Chicago Bears
Key matchup: Justin Fields vs. himself
Key stat: Fields had the third highest turnover-worthy play percentage in the NFL
It was last year at US Bank Stadium that Justin Fields discovered his rushing attack. Prior to their Week 5 matchup he averaged 36 yards per game on the ground but following a 47-yard game that included a 60-yard touchdown called back for holding, Field posted 94 yards rushing per contest en route to a historic running season for a QB. However, that wasn’t enough to regularly produce points as the Bears still finished 23rd in scoring. With an improved offensive line and new weapon DJ Moore, Fields will need to prove he can cut down on ill-advised or inaccurate throws in order to beat the Vikings. If he does — watch out.
Prediction: Vikings win (7-5)
The Vikings have more talent than the Bears and should be able to at least manage a split.
WEEK 13: BYE
WEEK 14: AT Las Vegas Raiders
Key matchup: Vikings’ weapons vs. Raiders taped-together secondary
Key stat: Duke Shelley revenge game? Marcus Epps revenge game? Yes, the Raiders are lacking in high-end secondary talent, which is why they allowed a 98.8 QB rating against last season, worst in the NFL. They didn’t make enough meaningful changes in the secondary to compete with Justin Jefferson and the Vikings’ weapons.
Prediction: Vikings win (8-5)
This one is by far the best road trip on the slate. Book your flights now, friends. Oh, and if the Vikings were sitting at 8-5 at this point in the year, it would be good and bad. They would be right in the mix for a playoff spot and possibly a division title but the rest of the slate has some challenging matchups.
WEEK 15: AT Cincinnati Bengals
Key matchup: Ja’Marr Chase vs. everyone trying to stop Ja’Marr Chase
Key stat: Chase played only 12 games and still cleared 1,000 yards
The Vikings are hoping that a No. 1 corner emerges from the group of guys battling for spots during the summer but unless someone has become elite by Week 15 it’s going to be a rough ride against Chase. He’s every bit the difficult matchup that Justin Jefferson is for opponents and Cincy has lots of other weapons too. They had five players finish with more than 50 catches and Tee Higgins also gained 1,000-plus yards.
Prediction: Bengals win (8-6)
Cincy looks like they’re en route to another deep playoff run with Burrow at the helm. The Vikings can compete with the NFC’s best but the AFC title contenders are on a different level.
WEEK 16: Detroit Lions
Key matchup: Kirk Cousins vs. the revamped Lions cornerbacks
Key stat: Cousins averaged 342 yards passing and produced a 109.0 QB rating vs. the Lions in 2022
Cousins’ career numbers against the Lions are downright hilarious. He’s 8-3 with 73% completion, 23 touchdowns, two interceptions, 293 yards per game and a 117.5 QB rating. The Lions, however, are bringing a little sharper teeth this year than they have over the last five seasons. They added quality veterans Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Mosley and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson at corner and have built up their front seven with high picks Aidan Hutchinson and Jack Campbell. If the Vikings can’t slow down Detroit’s offense again, they may have a more difficult time going tit for tat than in the past. You would normally add in a US Bank Stadium factor but Jared Goff has now made enough trips to Minnesota that the needle shouldn’t be moved much.
Prediction: Vikings win (9-6)
Playing the Lions for the first time this deep in the season makes it really tough to call. Are they going to be the NFC darlings that many project or a product of mere offseason hype? Or will they be somewhere in the middle, fighting tooth and nail for the NFC North with the Vikings? That seems likely.
WEEK 17: vs. Green Bay Packers
Key matchup: Jordan Love vs. US Bank Stadium
Key stat: Love has 86 career NFL drop-backs
Nobody knows what to expect from the Packers’ new quarterback. One thing we can reasonably project, however, is that his first trip as a starter to US Bank Stadium will bring along some atmospheric challenges that he’s never seen before. Add that to Brian Flores’ tendency to blitz inexperienced quarterbacks and it could be a long day for the 2020 first-round pick.
Prediction: Vikings win
Are the Vikings ending the Packers’ playoff hopes here or playing against Danny Etling after Jordan Love has been benched? Both seem plausible.
WEEK 18: AT Detroit Lions
Key matchup: Ben Johnson’s weapons vs. inexperienced Vikings defenders
Key stat: Jared Goff totaled 607 yards, four touchdowns in two games against Minnesota
Detroit finished fifth in scoring in 2022 and Goff only had one consistent top receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown. This offseason they brought back Viking killer Marvin Jones and drafted dynamic Alabama runner Jahmyr Gibbs. Plus ‘22 first-rounder Jameson Williams will finally get his chance to flash his blazing speed after being slowed by an ACL injury last year. We saw last season that Lions OC Ben Johnson knows how to use his weapons so even with improvements in defensive scheme the Vikings’ young secondary could be in for a long day if Goff can get the ball to his playmakers.
Prediction: Lions win (10-7)
Even if the Lions are getting too much love from NFL media, they are never an easy team to beat twice for the Vikings at Ford Field.
Final thoughts
— The Vikings have a difficult schedule. That’s what happens when you win 13 games. But it’s fair to set the bar relatively high for a team that is still running back a lot of talent, particularly on the offensive side.
— The big difference between this year’s schedule and last year is that the mediocre teams like the Saints and Raiders still have quarterbacks who can hurt bad defenses, so it’s very clear the Vikings’ D will need to improve greatly to hold serve week after week against this slate.
— The end of the season sets up for a potentially wild ending, which is why the NFL backloads all the divisional games.
— Last year’s range of outcomes was wider going into the year. This time around we know more about an O’Connell-coached team. The ceiling might simply be lower because of the degree of difficulty of the opponents. If the Vikings reach more than 10 wins in 2023, we won’t be talking about whether they were lucky or not — they will absolutely have to earn it against this group.
— The key to the entire year is surviving the start. If they don’t have any slipups against the likes of the Bucs or Panthers, they can hang around .500 until the slate loosens up a bit in the middle but if they fall early, it’s going to be very hard to recover.
