Matthew Coller: You'll never believe this: QB prospects have flaws
In preparation for the NFL Combine in Indianapolis, I logged onto the internet in search of information about the upcoming quarterback class. In other years I might have glanced at the group but assumed that Kirk Cousins was returning as QB1 and didn’t spend too much time reading the work of the world’s finest draft analysts. I assumed since I have heard that this is a very compelling group if signal callers — good enough that four or five could be taken in the first round — that I would find heaps of praise for the next generation of NFL quarterbacks but instead, as I poured through report after report, I turned white as a Norwegian ghost.
I was horrified to find out that Drake Maye can be inconsistent and sometimes struggle under pressure. Whew, they better not trade multiple first-rounders for that guy!
My jaw dropped when I discovered Jayden Daniels doesn’t throw effectively over the middle. A lot of stuff happens in the middle. Off the list!
I would have thought Bo Nix throwing for a gazillion yards and bazillion touchdowns was good but that was a fabrication. His passes were too short and he’s older than Joe Montana. Nice try, pal. No go!
JJ McCarthy — I couldn’t even find any stats on him because Michigan never passed. Sorry, I like my quarterbacks to occasionally have thrown the football. Hard pass!
Draft analysts in New York could hear Michael Penix Jr.’s knees creaking all the way from Washington. He only led his team to the National Championship and lost. Winners, please. No dice!
This group of dweebs thinks they are going to be the next great batch of NFL quarterbacks with these demerits on their resumes? Today’s current NFL stars — now those were a group of flawless prospects who were never picked apart NFL teams and the rockin’ mockin’ world.
No way would the greatest quarterback of the generation Patrick Mahomes have any red flags. It’s not like analysts thought that he was inconsistent and lacked discipline. I bet his footwork was amazing in college.
No chance Josh Allen would be compared to a bust like Jake Locker and struggle with anticipation throws and control of his velocity.
Joe Burrow? There’s a quarterback you can set your watch to. I bet he was touted as having elite arm strength and was never dubbed a one-year wonder.
If memory serves correctly, Lamar Jackson was a real quarterback’s quarterback. He was super accurate and had brilliant touch on the football at Louisville. MVP from Day 1 of 2018 draft season. Everybody knew that.
Am I laying it on thick enough yet?
Let me be clear: I appreciate the information that quality draft analysts provide. We all want to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the quarterback class, where they might land in the draft, what it might take for them to succeed and what might get them if they fail. A lot of the NFL.com draft profiles nailed exactly what problems those great quarterbacks had to overcome coming out of college.
But that’s just the point: Keep in mind as we tear down the quarterback class limb by limb that every QB who has ever come out in the draft has needed to improve. None of them were perfect right away and most of them who succeeded did so because they found the right situation.
So let’s talk about what we are looking for from the QB class in Indianapolis as the Minnesota Vikings have a decision on their hands regarding Kirk Cousins. After all, if they move on from him, then that very likely means they will be drafting a quarterback and they believe in someone from this class.
Caleb Williams is likely out of reach for the Vikings and there won’t be anything to see in Indianapolis anyway as, per NFL Network, he won’t throw or do workouts at the Combine. Jayden Daniels will also wait until his pro day. Daniels’ decision seems a little odd because he’s far from a dead lock to be picked at the very top of the draft and teams like the Vikings who need to make QB decisions soon may have been interested in getting a look at him now.
Nix, McCarthy and Penix Jr. will throw in front of scouts. It’s unclear whether Maye will do a workout but it might be worth giving the league a taste of what he can do up close just in case there is any thought of him falling down draft boards. He seems the most likely to wow with his raw talent.
Nix needs to show that his mechanics and accuracy can be consistent when it comes to intermediate throws. His NFL.com draft profile critique noted that he “left easy touchdowns on the field due to overthrows. Bucket throws will come out a little flat. Needs to do a better job of throwing receivers away from coverage.” And everyone in the world has pointed out that 30% of his throws were behind the line of scrimmage (even if he graded 95+ by PFF on throws over 10 yards).
McCarthy has to show that the tools are worth it. His arm strength has to pop off teh scree and if he runs the 40 it needs to be above 4.6. He doesn’t have a massive amount experience as a thrower and Michigan barely used him en route to winning the national title. NFL.com says: “Leaves throws behind moving targets, allowing defenders to challenge catches. Deep balls need to come out quicker and with more air under them.”
Penix Jr. has the best chance to blow folks’ socks off with his arm. But nobody questions his cannon so that might just be a good time for everyone. His athletic scores will be very interesting because there is questions about whether he can escape and make plays outside of structure. Really, it’s age and health with Penix Jr. We can’t know what will come of his medicals, save for leaks. And leaks are not to be trusted this time of year.
While draft analysts will try their best to break down what all the horse-and-pony shows do for these QBs, ultimately what goes on in the meeting rooms will be a bigger determining factor. Malik Willis had a very good workout and showed elite arm talent — enough for some draft analysts to bump him to No. 2 overall. Once we saw him actually play in an NFL game, we understood that the league knew something the outside world did not about his ability to process at NFL speed.
So we shouldn’t overreact to any of it. If Nix lights it up, that doesn’t mean he’s a lock for a top-10 pick. If McCarthy isn’t brilliant with his accuracy, that doesn’t mean the league is giving up on him as a prospect. If Maye overthrows a few lasers, that doesn’t mean the Vikings should toss away plans to trade up and get him.
The reality is that if the Vikings are planning to draft one of these QBs then they will have ideas about what they can fix. If QBs came out of college as perfectly shaped diamonds then we would have many more instances of CJ Stroud’s rookie year rather than him being the outlier. We wouldn’t see players like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen develop over several years to reach the top of the mountain or QBs like Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes sit the bench and develop before going in.
I get it though. We want to plant our flag. We want to be right. We want to retweet our old tweet about how quarterback X was going to be the real deal and delete the old ones where we said Josh Rosen was gonna be the man. That’s part of the fun. But as it pertains to what we see at the Combine, don’t let the critiques convince you that every one of these guys will be the next [2012 first-round QB name redacted].
Feb 27, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; A general overall aerial view of Lucas Oil Stadium, the home of the Indianapolis Colts and site of the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine.
Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
