On the Vikings' schedule, how often is Kirk Cousins the better QB?
There are lots of different ways to slice a schedule in order to decide whether a team has a difficult slate for the upcoming season. One of those ways is looking at the opposing quarterbacks. So how many weeks do the Vikings have the advantage this year? Let’s have a look…
Week 1, 17: Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers
Advantage: Packers
The Aaron Rodgers vs. Kirk Cousins battle has not been one sided since Cousins arrived in Minnesota. The Vikings’ QB has a 105.6 rating in seven games against Green Bay and Rodgers has produced a 107.8 rating versus the Vikings in eight games. Cousins has won three, lost three and tied one. Rodgers is 4-3-1. But while Cousins is capable of putting up a big game — and even a game-winning drive as he did last year at home against Minnesota’s biggest rival — Rodgers is the back-to-back MVP and his odds of giving the Vikings’ defense a long day are extremely high. No matter his age or issues with supporting cast, Rodgers will get the edge here until he retires.
Key stats:
— Rodgers has gone 39-9 with 111 touchdowns, 13 INTs and a 109.2 rating since Matt LaFleur arrived in 2019. He has 77 big-time throws to 24 turnover-worthy plays over the last two years.
— Kirk Cousins has wild ups and downs against the Packers, beating them last season at home with a 128.4 QB rating and 76.7 QBR but also producing two games with QB ratings in the 50s and QBRs under 30 in 2019.
Week 2: Philadelphia Eagles, Jalen Hurts
Advantage: Slight edge to Vikings
The last time Cousins flew to Philly was in 2018. He put on an impressive showing that led to his most impressive win of that season. This time the Vikings’ quarterback will go up against another daunting Eagles defensive line and an opposing QB who’s capable of red hot or ice cold days in Jalen Hurts. What evened out Hurts’ overall play in 2021 was his ability to scramble. If the Vikings get into a battle of pure passers, Cousins has the distinct advantage as Hurts only went for over 250 yards four times. If it’s a defensive battle, that would seem to favor the playmaking mobile QB.
Key stats:
— Hurts graded 10th by PFF in 2021 and ranked second with 50 scrambles. He had the third lowest pressure-to-sack rate in the NFL
— Cousins has a 101.9 QB rating on the road since 2018, sixth best in the NFL, but the Vikings are 14-17 in those games
Week 3, 14: Detroit Lions, Jared Goff
Advantage: Vikings
If there’s any team that doesn’t underestimate Goff, it’s the Vikings. In 2018 he posted a perfect passer rating against Minnesota in a home win with the Rams. Last year he led a go-ahead drive late in the first matchup and outdueled Cousins in Detroit for the Lions’ first win of the season. His numbers from last season were putrid but he’s shown throughout his career that the former No. 1 pick is capable of more than that. With an improved O-line and group of receivers, Goff has a chance for great improvement this year. However, Goff’s best years have statistically been similar to Cousins’ average years. If he can’t regain the form of the years under Sean McVay, Goff won’t be considered in the same category as the Vikings’ starter.
Key stats:
— Goff had zero games graded above 70 by PFF last year. In 2018, he ranked eighth in big-time throw percentage and seventh in average depth of target. In 2021, he was 28th in BTT% and 30th in aDOT.
— In eight games vs. the Lions since 2018, Kirk Cousins has a 122.0 quarterback rating
Week 4: New Orleans Saints, Jameis Winston
Advantage: Vikings
Winston got off to a strong start under Sean Payton but tore his ACL after seven starts. There is no quarterback who has been more boom or bust over the last decade in the NFL than Winston, who led the NFL in passing and interceptions in the same year with the Bucs in 2019. He was in the process of cutting down his turnovers with only three INTs with New Orleans but Winston still completed under 60% of his passes. He’s capable of an off-the-charts performance at any time but the odds favor Cousins as the better QB in London.
Key stats:
— Winston had the third highest average depth of target in the NFL last season and the second longest time to throw in the pocket. He ranked 23rd in passing grade.
— The Saints ranked fifth in coverage grade last season. Cousins has the ninth best EPA per play versus perfect coverage.
Week 5, 18: Chicago Bears, Justin Fields
Advantage: Vikings
How much did Matt Nagy hold back Justin Fields? We’re about to find out — maybe. The Bears didn’t make massive improvements to their supporting group of linemen and receivers to assist young Fields in his journey toward being Chicago’s first true franchise QB in a long time. He showed flashes of excellence with impressive explosive plays but also looked entirely lost at times. Can a new offense give him some easier throws? Or will he continue to hold the ball too long and take bad sacks? Until Fields has decidedly taken the “next step,” the advantage is on the Vikings’ side at QB.
Key stats:
— Fields ranked fifth in big-time throw percentage. He had the second lowest adjusted completion percentage, only better than Mike Glennon.
— Cousins averages just 6.6 yards per attempt with a 92.4 QB rating against the Bears since 2018. He’s been sacked 23 times on 255 dropbacks vs. Chicago.
Week 6: Miami Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa
Advantage: Vikings
There isn’t much doubt that Cousins is a more proven quarterback but the Dolphins went all in on putting as much around Tagovialoa as possible. He has two receivers that can turn short passes into touchdowns in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But Cousins has a strong group of weapons as well. The Dolphins will need those receivers to take over the game and/or put on an excellent defensive performance in order to even the playing field in this one.
Key stats:
— New Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill had 74 catches that traveled under 10 yards through the air last season. Tagovialoa had 10 big-time throws and 22 turnover-worthy plays per PFF.
— The Dolphins ranked fifth in passing EPA on defense. The Vikings only played five games against top-10 EPA passing defenses (Dallas, Green Bay, L.A. Rams, Pittsburgh) last year and went 2-3.
Week 8: Arizona Cardinals, Kyler Murray
Advantage: Slight edge to Cardinals
Cousins vs. Murray was an excellent battle last season. Murray showed against the Vikings his rare skill for pushing the ball downfield and he’s bound to do so again with DeAndre Hopkins returning to the lineup before they play against the Vikings. His ability to turn third downs into first downs by running the ball made him a nightmare for the Vikings’ defense in 2021 and it wouldn’t be surprising if he repeated that showing this time around. But what Cousins has going for him is that the Cardinals’ defense doesn’t appear to be massively improved over last year, opening the door for a big day for his receivers. There isn’t a large gap here.
Key stats:
— Murray ranked No. 2 in the NFL in big-time throws. He had the third highest QB rating on deep throws (over 20 yards).
— Cousins had his third highest graded game vs. the Cardinals last season and managed a 122.4 QB rating.
Week 9: Washington Commanders, Carson Wentz
Advantage: Vikings
For the second year in a row, a team decided it did not want Wentz as its franchise quarterback. He frustrated the Eagles and disappointed the Colts. Of course, his tenures were not without their highlights but he seemed to let both squads down when they needed him to step up. That was certainly the case when Wentz lost to the Jaguars with a playoff spot on the line. While Wentz is joining a team that can offer him one of the top receivers in the league in Terry McLaurin, he’s too erratic to put odds on him being better than Cousins in D.C.
— Wentz ranked 23rd in passing grade in the final four weeks of 2021. Receiver Terry McLaurin caught 25 of 47 contested catches.
— Washington allowed the third most passing yards against in the NFL and fourth highest QB rating last year.
Week 10: Buffalo Bills, Josh Allen
Advantage: Bills
Allen is a force. He has arguably the strongest arm in the NFL, which plays just fine in the brutal Buffalo weather and he is rarely sacked because of his mobility and size. He is also blessed with a deep and talented receiving corps that knows how to get open when he goes off schedule. Allen has a chance to win MVP so playing against him in Buffalo isn’t ideal for about 95% of the league, including Cousins.
Key stats:
— Allen had the lowest percentage of pressures that turned into sacks and ranked No. 1 in scrambles.
— Buffalo led the NFL in points allowed and gave up 5.7 yards per attempt (best in the league)
Week 11: Dallas Cowboys, Dak Prescott
Advantage: Slight edge to Cowboys
The world seems to play the overrated-underrated game with Prescott as much as it does Cousins but it’s tough to make a strong argument against a QB whose offense has led the league in yards in each of his last two healthy seasons and ranked No. 1 in scoring in 2021. Prescott has shown the Vikings in the past that he has an ability to take over games and rack up 350-400 yards through the air, which makes him more scary to opponents than Cousins. Whether he can put together the same level of terrifying passing without Amari Cooper is yet to be seen. Losing Cooper closes the gap between these two QBs.
Key stats:
— Prescott had a 122.7 QB rating when targeting Amari Cooper. He ranked second in the NFL in PFF grade under pressure.
— Cousins was pressured on 41% of dropbacks vs. Dallas and averaged 1.4 yards per attempt vs. Dallas
Week 12: New England Patriots, Mac Jones
Advantage: Even
When Jones was coming into the NFL, he was compared to Cousins. Well, in his first year, there were some similarities, like his accuracy and his head coach not leaning too hard into the passing game. Jones did a good job of game managing the Patriots to 10 wins last season. If he makes any natural improvement at all, he’ll be on par with Cousins. Think it’s a big leap? Well, Jones already ranked 10th in PFF passer grade and had the sixth lowest turnover-worthy play rate. His upside might not be anywhere near that of Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen but Jones looks like he’ll be squarely in the Cousins range or better long term.
Key stats:
— Graded between Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen in PFF passing grade. Jones ranked ninth in time from snap to throw.
— The Patriots picked off 23 passes and allowed just 21 touchdown passes.
Week 13: New York Jets, Zach Wilson
Advantage: Vikings
There’s only up to go from here with Wilson, right? His debut season was as miserable as it gets — like, only a shade above Josh Rosen-level miserable. We have seen massive improvements from Year 1 to Year 2 before, especially when the team drafts a first-round receiver. But the jump would have to be enormous for Wilson to be better than Cousins. By the time these two teams play in the middle-late portion of the season, we’ll know if Wilson is a real threat or total bust.
Key stats:
— Wilson did not throw an interception in the final five weeks of the season
— The Jets allowed 8.0 yards per attempt, tied for most in the league.
Week 15: Indianapolis Colts, Matt Ryan
Advantage: Slight edge to Vikings
There were a few games last season with the Falcons where it appeared Matt Ice rose from the ashes to fire the ball all over the yards. That version, unfortunately, has been few and far between over the last few years. Ryan is looking for new life with a new team — and that could very well happen considering that Philip Rivers led the Colts to the playoffs two years ago. An average version of Ryan could get them back to the postseason because of the strength of the O-line and running game. Ryan might not need to carry the load in order for the Colts to be competitive. He could be a shade behind Cousins in their head-to-head performance and still win.
Key stats:
— Ryan had five games with PFF grades over 80 and six games under 60. He hasn’t produced a season with over 95 quarterback rating since 2018.
— Cousins threw for 113 yards, three interceptions against the Colts in 2020.
Week 16: New York Giants, Daniel Jones
Advantage: Vikings
What the Giants have going for them is that Joe Judge is no longer their coach and they are much healthier than last year when Jones’ supporting cast seemed like a whole different team from week to week. But there’s still plenty of reason to believe Jones will bring up the rear among NFL QBs. No matter the coaching, he should have shown signs by now. Brian Daboll has a tough task ahead.
Key stats:
— Jones hasn’t topped 6.7 yards per pass attempt. His top receiver caught 46 passes.
— The Giants ranked 28th in pass rush grade. Cousins had a 72.5 QB rating under pressure.
Takeaways:
— The Vikings have some type advantage in 10 of 17 games.
— Most of the QBs who Cousins has an edge over also have a background that suggests they could play very well on any given Sunday.
— Not knowing whether Wilson or Jones will get better makes the comparison difficult. Year 2 has often been the breakout season for top drafted QBs in recent years.
— A number of the opponents the Vikings are set to face had very good defenses last year. Whether Cousins outplays his opponents will come down to how much he’s pressured and confused by opposing defense as much as whether the other QB is shining.
