SKOL Searching: Should the Vikings blitz more?
A Greg Joseph 36-yard field goal had just tied the game at 26. With 14 minutes remaining, the New England Patriots were looking to score on their sixth consecutive drive and retake the lead on Thanksgiving.
A first down check down to Rhamondre Stevenson gained one yard and an incompletion on second down forced a 3rd-and-9. The Vikings showed pressure with seven defenders on the line of scrimmage using the double A-gap look that was commonplace in the Mike Zimmer defense. Two defenders dropped and five rushed with Harrison Smith coming off the left side unblocked. Smith quickly flushed Mac Jones out of the pocket where he forced a ball downfield for an incompletion and a punt.
The sequence was notable for its timely importance in the game – the Vikings scored the game-winning touchdown on the next drive – but it was also notable to Minnesota’s defensive tendencies this season. The Vikings have rarely shown pressure pre-snap much less actually blitzed this season. Against the Patriots, Ed Donatell called a blitz on only seven occasions, roughly 16 percent of Jones’ dropbacks. That follows season averages. Minnesota has blitzed on just 15.8% of opponents’ dropbacks, which is among the lowest rates in the league. The Atlanta Falcons have the lowest rate in the NFL, blitzing on 14.4% of dropbacks.
Despite that, Donatell dialed up the pressure again late against New England on a third down on the Patriots’ penultimate drive that resulted in a Danielle Hunter sack and forced a 4th-and-16 that New England couldn’t convert.
That small sample of success spurned a question, Donatell has stuck with his style of defense – the shell coverage, bend-don’t-break strategy – for much of the season, but has that been the right decision? Did the two pivotal pressures late in the game show Minnesota should blitz more?
Against certain matchups, it has made sense. Minnesota blitzed Aaron Rodgers, historically one of the best quarterbacks against the blitz, just four times in its season-opening win. Against mobile quarterbacks Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts, the Vikings blitzed only 10 times combined.
The same can’t be said for the matchup against Jones. He is not a hall-of-fame processor of defenses nor a threat with his legs. The Patriots’ second-year quarterback entered Week 12 with a 49.9 PFF grade when blitzed. That ranked 36th of 39 eligible quarterbacks. He had the lowest passer rating and fourth-highest turnover-worthy play percentage in those situations. Expanded to just when Jones was pressured, regardless of whether it was a blitz, he was just as bad. Jones ranked 38th of 39 quarterbacks in PFF grade and passer rating when pressured and he had the third-highest turnover-worthy play percentage.
That bore out against Minnesota. Against the blitz Jones completed 3-of-6 passes for 32 yards and was sacked once, averaging only 5.3 yards per attempt. His passer rating was 66.0. When pressured he completed 4-of-9 passes for 53 yards, averaging 5.9 yards per attempt.
Despite that success, Minnesota blitzed Jones on just seven dropbacks. It’s the second-fewest blitzes Jones has faced in games he’s started this year. Only the Colts blitzed him less, a game Jones and the Patriots won 26-3.
And when the Vikings didn’t blitz, Jones picked them apart. He threw for 350 yards and two touchdowns, completing 25-of-33 passes. His yards per attempt was 10.6 – double what it was when he was blitzed. The bend-don’t-break approach broke several times. Jones had gains of 40, 40, 37, 34 and 26. And before the punt in the second half, Minnesota had allowed points on 14 of the opponents’ last 17 drives.
That made it all the more puzzling. That until the fourth quarter it didn’t appear Minnesota was in any hurry to adjust. The Vikings were not garnering pressure with any consistency and were not limiting the big plays. It was the second-least amount of pressure Jones has faced all year.
Yet when Minnesota desperately needed a stop, they turned to it. On two third downs, one with the game tied and one with the Vikings holding a seven-point lead, Donatell dialed up pressure and converted it.
The unanswerable question is whether those pressures would have worked had they been used frequently before that. Could the Patriots have adjusted to it if the Vikings blitzed earlier? Would it have been as effective late in the game when they needed those stops?
For much of the season, Donatell’s lack of blitzing has been explained away by his association with Vic Fangio. Donatell coached under Fangio during Fangio’s time as head coach in Denver and took his scheme to Minnesota. Fangio’s scheme was never known to feature heavy amounts of pressure, but Donatell has been much more tentative than Fangio ever was during his time with the Broncos (head coach from 2019-2021).
Here’s a look at the blitz rates over the last four seasons.
- 2022 Vikings blitz rate: 15.8% of dropbacks (27th in NFL)
- 2021 Broncos: 25.3% (15th)
- 2020 Broncos: 27.9% (18th)
- 2019 Broncos: 24.1% (23rd)
For comparison, the 2021 Vikings blitzed on 26.1% of dropbacks.
Donatell has also been more conservative than other coaches from the Vic Fangio coaching tree. The Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley had two separate stints working with Fangio in Chicago and Denver. Here are his teams’ pressure rates.
- 2022 Chargers: 28% of dropbacks (11th in NFL)
- 2021 Chargers: 25.1% (16th)
- 2020 Rams: 27.3% (19th)
Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry also coaches with a similar philosophy to Staley and Fangio. Green Bay leads the NFL in blitz frequency, rushing more than four on 39.1% of dropbacks this season.
Here’s how it’s broken down for each quarterback Minnesota has faced this season.
- Dak Prescott - 25% of dropbacks (7 total blitzes)
- Josh Allen - 24% (12)
- Taylor Heinecke 21% (7)
- Kyler Murray - 7.5% (4)
- Teddy Bridgewater/Skylar Thompson 15% (8)
- Justin Fields 27% (8)
- Andy Dalton 20% (6)
- Jared Goff 23.3% (10)
- Jalen Hurts 15% (6)
- Aaron Rodgers 10.5% (4)
Donatell is clearly in his own tier when it comes to blitzing. During stints of the season, Minnesota has been able to get away with it because it had a dominant pass rusher in Za’Darius Smith. Smith’s 9.5 sacks ranked in the top 5 entering Week 12, but he’s been the only consistent source of pressure. As a team, the Vikings are generating pressure on 19.6% of dropbacks, which ranks 24th in the NFL, and if Smith isn’t producing then there aren't many other places to turn. That was the case against the Patriots, who failed to frequently disrupt Jones. It was the least amount of pressure Jones had faced since Week 1.
Whether Donatell needs to ramp up blitzing remains in the eye of the beholder. Blitzing is not a guaranteed path to success. The New York Jets and Tennessee Titans both blitz less than the Vikings and they rank 6th and 12th in EPA/play on defense. The Packers rank 22nd in EPA/play despite blitzing the most in the NFL.
But it is striking that Donatell has strayed in one major area from his predecessors and has been steadfast in maintaining that approach even when it may inhibit the team from capitalizing on a team’s weakness – like Jones’ struggles against the blitz.
