The best and worst NFL free agency moves so far
Welcome again to free agency, where players whose contracts expired have all the power. They’ve got the opportunity to test the market and sign elsewhere or choose to come back to the team they just finished up their contract with. Depending on what players choose to sign where, free agency can change the trajectory of a team. A Super Bowl contender could lose a number of starters (looking at you Eagles), or a bottom-tier team with a lot of cap space could instantly put them into playoff consideration.
Let’s use an analytical lens to look at some of the best and worst moves from the start of free agency and which teams were altered most by their decisions…
Best moves
Move: DT Javon Hargrave signs with the 49ers
Contract: 4 years, $84 million ($21 million yearly average)
Key Stat: 63 pressures in 2022 (49ers interior lineman had 59 pressures combined in 2022)
Why it makes sense: The 49ers staple defense doesn’t look like it’s going anywhere, as they build up the defensive trenches by bringing in Hargrave. Hargrave by himself was ages above all the 49ers’ defensive tackles in 2022, getting 63 pressures compared to 59 from the 49ers DTs combined. Oh, and he also had 11 sacks. With Nick Bosa on the edge, this defensive line is going to be a force to be reckoned with.
Move: CB Jamel Dean re-signs with the Buccaneers
Contact: 4 years, $52 million ($13 million yearly average)
Key Stat: 49.3% completion percent allowed and 27.6 yards allowed per game
Why it makes sense: Dean is an outstanding cornerback with stats to back it up, but what makes this move great is the fact that the Buccaneers got him for much less than he was projected. Dean’s projected contract (by PFF) averaged 17 million per year, but the Bucs signed him for only 13 million. Dean’s allowed completion percentage and yards per game were two of the best in the NFL, so it’s a great move to bring him back and un-embrace the tank instead of creating a fire sale like the Rams.
Move: CB Cameron Sutton signs with the Lions
Contract: 3 years, $33 million ($11 million yearly average)
Key Stat: 15 passes defensed and 27.1 yards allowed per game
Why it makes sense: If the Vikings had the money to get Sutton, I thought he would be the best fit for the Flores scheme since he’s extremely skilled and familiar with man coverage (ran it 36.2% of time in 2022 with PIT). But ultimately Sutton joins a Lions coverage unit that ran the third most man coverage in 2022, so he’ll fit in nicely. Along with signing Emmanuel Moseley, the Lions are winning the cornerback battle in free agency.
Move: Cheap linebacker signings: TJ Edwards signs with the Bears and David Long signs with the Dolphins
Contract: Edwards – 3 years, $19.5 million ($6.5 million yearly average), Long – 2 years, $11 million ($5.5 million yearly average)
Key Stat: Edwards – 6th highest PFF defensive grade for LBs (81.6), Long – 5th highest run defense grade for LBs (89)
Why it makes sense: Edwards and Long were two linebackers I had easily in the top 5 available in free agency. With the linebacker market going up, it was surprising that they both went for CHEAP. With Edwards having a projected contract of $13.5 million per year and Long projected $10 million per year, the Bears and Dolphins both signed their new LBs to about half of that. Good on them for getting key players who had outstanding and breakout seasons.
Move: DE Marcus Davenport signs with the Minnesota Vikings
Contract: 1 year, $13 million
Key Stat: 34 pressures and 26 hits in 2022
Why it makes sense: When it comes to underlying stats, Davenport has been a very consistent and productive Edge for the Saints since he was drafted in 2018, having a PFF defensive grade of below 70 only once (and it was a 69.7). In less than half of the Saints’ defensive snaps in 2022, Davenport still produced 34 pressures and 26 hits. His pass rush win rate (20.6%) and pressure rate (15.3%) were both top 25 out of all edge defenders, so the Vikings got some much needed help on defense. If his sack production returns to 2021 levels (9.0) he can be one of the steals of free agency.
Move: Giants trade for Raiders TE Darren Waller
Trade details: Giants gave up a 3rd round pick (#100)
Key Stat: 3,394 receiving yards since 2019 (3rd among TEs, even missed 14 games), 70.4% catch rate
Why it makes sense: After losing Evan Engram last offseason, the Giants are back in the tight end game after giving up only a late third round pick for Waller. He is on the older side and has a list of injuries recently, but he was the second highest graded TE from 2019-2020 behind Travis Kelce. He missed 14 games in the last 2 seasons, but he still has the third most receiving yards by a TE since 2019. With his size, the guy is a receiving machine and should make Daniel Jones’ life a little easier.
Move: Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will be traded to the New York Jets
Trade details: To be determined
Key Stat: 4 time MVP, Super Bowl Champion and MVP, 10 time Pro Bowler
Why it makes sense: Sauce Gardner’s burning of his cheesehead worked, and Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers announced that he will be playing for the New York Jets in 2023 (a trade compensation will be worked out soon). He will instantly become the best QB that has ever played for the Jets, and with their “win now” roster, they could make a run in 2023. The Jets had the No. 1 graded defense in 2022 (by PFF) and emerging all-star playmakers Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, so this team was really just a quarterback away – until now.
Worst moves
Move: Falcons trade for Patriots TE Jonnu Smith
Trade details: Falcons gave up a 7th round pick
Key Stat: They have Kyle Pitts.
Why it doesn’t make sense: The Falcons traded for another tight end that they can ignore just like they do Kyle Pitts. One of the biggest free agency busts in history with the Patriots, Jonnu Smith had only 245 receiving yards last season (38th of all TEs). With Pitts’ 356 yards in 2022, nine tight ends had more receiving yards than Smith and Pitts combined – and now they’ll have to share targets. It’s unclear why the Falcons needed to give up any draft capital for a negligible player who probably won’t make life easier on their former fourth overall pick.
Move: QB Daniel Jones re-signs with the Giants
Contract: 4 years, $160 million ($40 million yearly average)
Key Stat: 15 passing touchdowns in 2022
Why it doesn’t make sense: The Giants declined Jones’ fifth year option last offseason ($22.3 million), and instead signed the middling QB to a $40 million per year deal after 1 decent season. He did have the ninth best EPA for quarterbacks in 2022, but that was largely due to his rushing, where he had 708 yards and seven touchdowns. He only threw for 3,200 yards and ranked 16th in PFF passing grade while gaining just 6.8 yards per attempt. In fact, he hasn’t produced a single season in his career over 7.0 YPA and hasn’t cleared 20 touchdowns since 2019. Good for the Giants for still having faith in Jones, but he will need to go a long way to justify the price tag.
Move: K Matt Gay signs with the Colts
Contract: 4 years, $22.5 million ($5.6 million yearly average)
Key Stat: Went 1 for 1 in field goals in the Rams Super Bowl LVI victory. Career FG% is 87.8%.
Why it doesn’t make sense: Not that there’s anything wrong with paying a kicker. Just kidding, there’s just about everything wrong with this move. The Colts have a need at basically every position, but they decided – “let’s give a kicker the largest free agency contract in NFL history.” I drafted him in fantasy two years ago, then he was cut by the Buccaneers 2 days later, so let’s hope this goes better for the Colts. Gay does have an excellent body of work under his belt with the fifth best field goal percentage in NFL history, it just simply doesn’t make sense to spend significant money on that position at this point in the Colts’ timeline.
Move: LB Tremaine Edmunds signs with the Bears
Contract: 4 years, $72 million ($18 million yearly average)
Key Stat: 86.9 coverage grade in 2022 (3rd best for LBs)
Why it doesn’t make sense: Edmunds was the big name for free agency linebackers, but his inconsistent stats really don’t back up the hype. His PFF grades for both run defense and coverage have been up and down, recently being as low as 56.5 in run defense (2022) and 37.5 in coverage (2021). He seems to have figured out coverage in 2022 (suddenly had the third highest coverage grade for linebackers), but can he reproduce that on the Bears? It seems like the Bears overpaid for a decent linebacker instead of keeping star LB Roquan Smith, who only got $2 million more per year with the Ravens.
Move: Taylor Heinicke signs with the Falcons
Contract: 2 years, $14 million ($7 million yearly average)
Key Stat: Led 18-16 in the fourth quarter of the Wild Card round against the soon-to-be Super Bowl champion Buccaneers in 2021.
Why it doesn’t make sense: The Falcons replaced Marcus Mariota with Taylor Heinicke. What an upgrade. He’ll probably back up Desmond Ridder this year if the Falcons truly want to commit to Ridder as their future, but the QB position seems to be up in the air in Atlanta. Heinicke started nine games in 2022, where he passed for just over 200 yards per game, threw 12 touchdowns, and turned the ball over 13 times. If he’s just a backup, it’s fine but still too expensive for a team that needs to use their dollars to make big gains on a roster that’s close to competing. If they need Heinicke to start more than a handful of games, the season is likely lost.
