Vikings draft targets who shine by the numbers
Every year there are players in the draft who jump off the charts on paper. While it can be hard to tell based on box score stats which prospects are going to make it, we can use available underlying data from the NFL Combine and PFF to shine light on their skills and improve our odds of predicting who will make it in the big leagues.
So let’s have a look at some potential Vikings targets who stand out analytically (with several who are projected to be taken from each day of the draft)…
DAY 1
Nolan Smith (DE, Georgia)
Key Stats: 83.8 defensive grade, 4.39 forty-time, 9.23 relative athleticism score
Nolan Smith isn’t your prototypical Edge player. Size aside, no one’s athleticism compares to his, especially when he ran a 4.39 forty. He is very undersized for a defensive lineman at just 238 pounds and has battled some injuries but still tallied an 83.8 PFF defensive grade, and Daniel Jeremiah compared him to Haason Reddick. He might be gone by #23 but would be a solid pick with a very high ceiling if he falls.
Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland)
Key Stats: 43.3% reception rate allowed, 8 pass breakups, 10.0 relative athleticism score
Banks is another freak athlete who couldn’t possibly be a more optimal cornerback prospect in terms of his height/length/speed/quickness. He also posted an impressive 43.3% reception rate allowed. The only thing missing was interception production but he still graded well (74.3) by PFF standards. He’d be a great fit for the Vikings if they don’t fear their past early round cornerback misses.
Jordan Addison (WR, USC)
Key Stats: over 2,100 yards since 2021, 7.3 YAC per reception, 146.7 passer rating when targeted
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best wide receiver in this draft class, but after looking through Jordan Addison’s stats, he should be in the conversation for second best. Having an NFL-caliber quarterback in Caleb Williams makes his life a lot easier, but Addison has been one of the best in the yards after the catch department. By the numbers, he’s above Zay Flowers due to his size and underlying receiving stats.
DAY 2
Jack Campbell (LB, Iowa)
Key Stats: 92.9 coverage grade, 6.3 yards allowed per reception, 8% missed-tackle rate
Campbell might be the biggest statistical hero in the whole draft. Coming from “defense-U” Iowa, he excelled against the run and was a top LB in coverage grade last season. His remarkable missed-tackle rate and zero TDs allowed in coverage demonstrates how he rarely makes mistakes and could be a prime option if the Vikings trade back.
Julius Brents (CB, Kansas State)
Key Stats: 9.99 relative athleticism score, 43.4% reception rate allowed
We haven’t talked a lot about Brents since he’s not quite on the level of a Witherspoon or Banks, but he’s an intriguing late second/early third round prospect. With a near-perfect athleticism score and an identical size to Sauce Gardner, he might deserve more attention. Brents was pretty successful in college, highlighted by a 43.4% reception rate allowed and four interceptions. If the Vikings don’t take a first-round corner, his ability to use his 6-foot-3 size could catch the eye of Brian Flores.
Josh Downs (WR, UNC)
Key Stats: 86.1 receiving grade, 79.8% reception rate, 75% contested catch rate
Like Addison, Downs had a ton of success catching passes from an NFL caliber quarterback in college. Although undersized, his 86.1 receiving grade was eighth of all receivers and he caught a remarkable 75% of contested catches. His only major weakness is his below-average run blocking (only a 49.6 grade), which is mostly a result of his size at just 5-foot-9.
Andre Carter II (DE, Army)
Key Stats: 93.4 pass rush grade in 2021, 10.3% missed tackle rate
Carter made huge pass rushing waves in 2021 (14 sacks and 54 pressures), but due to Army’s simplicity on the football field, offenses gameplanned as if Carter was the only player on defense in 2022. But while his pass rushing wasn’t the star in 2022, his run defense made huge strides, so he’s got all the pieces to be a star Edge in the NFL if he can put it all together and get even stronger. The question is whether the Vikings will have a chance at him as many mocks are projecting Carter in the second round.
DAY 3
Clayton Tune (QB, Houston)
Key Stats: 91.3 passing grade, 3,836 passing yards, 37 TDs, 10 ints, 26 big time throws
Not so great stats: took 23 sacks, 7 fumbles, 17 turnover worthy plays
Day 3 quarterbacks are sometimes inevitable, and Tune is probably the only one that I would commend the Vikings for taking a chance on given his production. His passing grade of 91.3 tied Bryce Young to lead the NCAA and he had big time throws a-plenty. However, it’s tough to get over his 23 sacks and seven fumbles.
Ivan Pace Jr. (LB, Cincinnati)
Key Stats: 92.8 defensive grade, 54 total pressures, 63 stops
Not so great stats: 140.2 passer rating when targeted, being 5’10”
It’s hard to believe anyone could have better stats than Jack Campbell, but Ivan Pace Jr. found a way. He had the top defensive grade for linebackers (92.8) and was a strong pass rusher with 11 sacks and 54 total pressures. However, his weakness in coverage allowed offenses to take advantage of him, and allowing a 140.2 passer rating when targeted in college isn’t necessarily positive. It would be a risk for the Vikings to take a player of his size and coverage issues, but it’s hard to ignore his rushing production.
Keaton Mitchell (RB, East Carolina)
Key Stats: nearly 2,500 rush yards since 2021, 93.5 rushing grade, 0 fumbles, 7.4 yards per attempt, 50 rushes of 10+ yards
Not so great stats: 51.2 pass blocking grade, his size at 5-foot-8
It’s hard to believe a running back could average 7.4 yards per attempt, but Keaton Mitchell did the impossible by breaking 64 tackles and never even fumbling. The RB with the third best rushing grade in 2022 (93.5), had incredible production but his pass blocking will likely keep him from being an every-down back.
Jonah Tavai (DI, San Diego State)
Key Stats: 92.1 defensive grade, 63 total pressures, 10 sacks
Not so great stats: 16.9% missed tackle rate, 4.95 relative athleticism score
Tavai is a fun one – he’s graded so well, improved each season, and had some of the best pass rushing production, all while being a sixth round projection. The only real negatives are his height (6-foot) and missed tackles, however his missed tackle rate did decrease about 5% from 2021-2022. He could be a late round steal given his impressive stats, but his size might limit his potential.
Undrafted Targets
Griffin Hebert (TE, Louisiana Tech)
Key Stats: 69.0 receiving grade, 18.7 yards per reception, 10.0 relative athleticism score
Not so great stats: 15% drop rate
Yeah, Hockenson’s good, but have you seen Griffin Hebert? Just kidding, but Hebert (unrelated to Justin Herbert) had a perfect relative athleticism score and his catches averaged a gigantic 18.7 yards. You can’t ignore his awful drop rate of 15% though, but if the Vikings think they can coach that as he makes the change from receiver to tight end, he’d be a great undrafted free agent pickup.
Mohamad Amen (LS, Ferris State)
Key Stats: 10.0 relative athleticism score
Not so great stats: he’s a long snapper, so there’s not many stats out there to evaluate
Mohamad Amen’s prayers were answered when he became the long snapper with the highest athleticism score ever. And since there’s virtually zero stats out there to evaluate long snappers, this is what we’ve got. He’s dabbled a bit at linebacker at Michigan’s own Ferris State, but he’s really just a long snapper. We wish him the best.
Tanner Brown (K, Oklahoma State)
Key Stats: 71 for 71 in career college extra points, 21/22 field goals in 2022
Not so great stats: none
Greg Joseph did miss seven field goals and seven extra points last season, so why not throw in an undrafted kicker? Tanner Brown only missed one kick last season, maybe he’s worth a camp invite.
