Vikings Training Camp Preview: How long will it take Kirk Cousins to adjust to a new system?
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Kirk Cousins will be adjusting to a new offensive coordinator this year.
You’re not having deja vu. This story has been written every year since Sean McVay left Washington to become the head coach of the Los Angeles Rams. Cousins has had a new OC every season, starting with Matt Cavanaugh in 2017, then John DeFilippo, Kevin Stefanski, Gary Kubiak and most recently Klint Kubiak.
This time around has some differences from recent years. Following DeFilippo’s firing late in the 2018 season, the Minnesota Vikings have been running largely the same system, just with different people at the helm. Each coordinator had their own preferences but the scheme was mostly still rooted in heavy personnel groupings, outside zone runs and play-action passes. Last year the Vikings were forced to use more three-receiver sets because of tight end Irv Smith Jr.’s injury but the bones of the things were still very similar to the previous two seasons.
While O’Connell’s offense, which presumably will be heavily influenced by McVay’s Super Bowl-winning playbook, has some of the same general ideas of past Vikings schemes about pairing the run with the pass to create deception, there have been plenty of hints that it will be quite different for Cousins and company. The most notable recent example came from Justin Jefferson, who told The Ringer that he expects to play much more out of the slot in a similar fashion to Rams star Cooper Kupp.
In a year where the Vikings open up with two massive NFC matchups against Green Bay and Philadelphia, they’ll need to be on the same page with the fresh offense right away. So how do the Vikings plan to master O’Connell’s scheme and how long has it taken Cousins in the past to adjust?
It starts with the relationship between Cousins and O’Connell. In previous years, it wasn’t clear how much command the quarterback was allowed to have with the offense.
“They control a lot, they're running the show,” O’Connell said of his QB’s freedom.
Cousins and former head coach Mike Zimmer did one-on-one film sessions in 2021 but rarely seemed to be on the same page during their time together. One of the major reasons the Vikings hired O’Connell was the idea that he could maximize Cousins’ play, in part by having better communication.
“There is an ongoing discussion of learning what’s new and sharing some things we’ve done well in the past and then allowing them to filter that and figure out what they want to implement, or put aside,” Cousins said.
Since 2019, the Vikings have largely used the same language — all of which stemmed from the Kubiak offense. Things are different enough this time around that the veteran quarterback spent the spring using flash cards to memorize plays, terminology and pass protections in order to be prepared for training camp.
“You feel like an eighth grader studying for a quiz in school the next day the way you go home each night and study, but that is really what it does take to come out here on the practice field and be able to just play instinctually,” Cousins said.
It stands to reason that Cousins’ familiarity with his teammates should smooth out the adjustment curve. Of the other 10 players surrounding Cousins who are expected to start, only the right guard position will feature a player that he’s never taken snaps with prior to this season.
“You've got a group of guys in my room that have played with the quarterback and the quarterback understands how they play,” receivers coach Keenan McCardell said. “That chemistry right there kind of puts you ahead of a lot of teams that had coaching changes.”
As we head into training camp, which starts July 26 for veterans, Cousins’ comfort in the O’Connell offense ranks toward the top of the list of top storylines. But how will we evaluate it whether everyone is coming together like a band in perfect sync or if there are stumbling blocks?
We can garner clues from how it looks in practice and how everyone talks about it but history tells us that whether the new offense comes out of the gate strong is difficult to predict. Here’s how Cousins graded by PFF in the first five weeks of each season following a system or OC change:
In 2018 there were already issues between Zimmer and DeFilippo pertaining to the pass-first offense that the former Eagles QB coach had implemented, yet Cousins played well out of the gate, particularly in an outstanding showing against Green Bay in Week 2 (in a tie, if you recall). In 2019, the system turned out to be a much better fit for Cousins in the long run but the beginning of the year was nightmarish, highlighted by a brutal loss to Chase Daniel and the Chicago Bears.
Last year, the offense sputtered and frustrations grew throughout the year but Cousins’ play by PFF metrics was the best opening to a season he put together since 2017.
Though not all the metrics suggested as such. Cousins ranked 20th in success rate in Weeks 1-5 and 16th in Expected Points Added + Completion Percentage Over Expected, a metric developed by Ben Baldwin of The Athletic.
Here’s how all the QBs played in EPA + CPOE over the first five weeks since 2017. You’ll notice that Cousins is in the middle of the pack.
Here’s how that compares to Weeks 6 through 18 over the last five seasons:
While his spot is a little farther on the plus side of the chart in Completion Percentage Over Expected compared to his peers, Cousins’ EPA and CPOE numbers are nearly identical.
In terms of box score numbers, Cousins has a 101.3 quarterback rating in the first five games of the year since 2017 and 101.6 in games six through 16.
Does that mean how it looks and how they talk about the offense in Eagan won’t matter in camp? Not exactly. The Vikings aren’t expecting the same performances from the past — they are looking for more.
Over the last four seasons, the Zimmer-Cousins combo produced the 14th most points in the NFL. That ranking jumps to 11th over the last three seasons. But teams that have reached the Super Bowl have been more explosive, particularly in the passing game. Since 2016, every team to appear in the Super Bowl ranked in the top five of passing EPA except the 2021 Bengals, who were ninth (Cincinnati was No. 1 in yards per pass attempt). The top team in passing EPA last year was the Rams.
Throughout camp we’ll be looking for signs that the Vikings’ offense isn’t just adjusting, it’s looking like there is potential for greater production than we’ve seen in the past.
