Which players will swing the Vikings' defense?
Last week, we looked at the players that will make or break the Vikings’ offense. But in Minnesota’s recent history, the offense often hasn’t been the volatile side of the ball. It’s been the defense. Now, with a non-Mike Zimmer defensive scheme entering the building for the first time since 2013, there’s a lot of uncertainty about what the unit can be.
So, who are the players with the widest range of outcomes that will influence whether the Vikings’ defense is a success, for better or worse?
Patrick Peterson
Nearly every successful NFL team has an above-average pass coverage unit. Last season, the Vikings ranked near the middle of that metric (18th, according to PFF), but the only playoff teams that had worse grades than Minnesota were the Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers, both of which were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. Conversely, eight of the top-10 pass coverage teams made the playoffs.
This chart discusses each type of PFF grade and how it affects winning. There’s a lot going on in it, but the takeaway reaffirms the importance of coverage, which displayed the most volatility. Simply, really bad coverage generally equates to really bad teams and vice versa, more so than any other defensive metric.
That brings us to Patrick Peterson. While clearly not the best player in the Vikings secondary (Harrison Smith), he belongs in the argument for the most pivotal. Like offensive line play, coverage units are often weak-link systems. The Vikings have certainly felt that first-hand with the recent failings of Bashaud Breeland, Mackenzie Alexander, Kris Boyd, Xavier Rhodes and others, which have caused the collapse of the entire secondary. It’s vital to the Vikings’ success in 2022 that Peterson doesn’t join that list.
But what’s the likelihood he does? First, let’s analyze his 2021 season.
Related: The truth and lies of pinning Vikings' past failures on Mike Zimmer
Related: Should the Vikings use Justin Jefferson like Cooper Kupp?
Peterson allowed a 57.8 percent completion rate and 89.0 passer rating last season, his best marks since 2018. He also cut his penalty count down to three after he committed 12 in 2020. All good things that placed Peterson amongst the league’s middle-tier of cornerbacks. He also faced the 16th fewest targets.
But was that because teams were actually avoiding Peterson? Or was his surrounding situation just that bad? Mackenzie Alexander had an NFL-worst 40.3 PFF grade and Brashuad Breeland ranked 69th out of 72 CBs in PFF grade. That certainly points to the latter being true.
And some underlying statistics show Peterson wasn’t much of an impact player at his position. He forced an incompletion on just six percent of targets, which was the 11th-lowest percentage in the league. He ranked 48th of 72 cornerbacks in yards allowed per reception and had his highest missed tackle percentage since 2013. He’ll also be 32 at the beginning of the season. At the beginning of last season, the oldest cornerbacks in the league were 34. All these statistics raise questions about where Peterson is trending. Combine that with the fact that he was only able to garner a one-year $4 million dollar contract on the open market, that shows that the NFL doesn’t value Peterson highly.
Still, for the Vikings he’ll be asked to be the No. 1 or No. 2 cornerback most of the year. Rookie cornerbacks are highly volatile and cannot be relied upon for consistent play, especially when they aren’t first round picks. So if the Vikings hope to contend, they’ll need a strong play in the secondary. And if they get strong secondary play, Peterson will need to be a part of it.
He’s also embraced his role as a leader on the team, despite entering just his second season in Minnesota. Those responsibilities will only escalate with three new rookies in the defensive secondary. He’s not only a relied-upon piece on the field but is one of the most meaningful veterans in the locker room. What he can do in both aspects will have a significant impact on the defense’s success.
Eric Kendricks
For most of Kendricks’ career, he would never have been considered for the list. He was Mr. reliable for Mike Zimmer’s defense. But that changed last year. His numbers dropped across the board. After overall PFF grades of 90.1 and 82.6 in 2019 and 2020, it dropped to 59.9, the second-worst year of his career (only above his rookie season). His run defense grade was amongst the worst in the NFL for linebackers. And notably, his coverage grade, which was elite in the previous two seasons, also dropped precipitously.
His percentage of missed tackles climbed above 10 percent for the first time since 2017. He allowed nearly four more yards per reception than 2020 and allowed more than double the amount of yards after the catch. The most dramatic statistic was his QBR allowed, which jumped from 60.5 in 2020 to 108.3.
To make a long story short, it wasn’t good. So is this the situation of a linebacker that has reached his 30s and is beginning his decline. Or was it a product of Kendrick’s defensive surroundings falling apart? Was Kendricks put in a no-win situation? Or was he a contributing factor to Minnesota’s abysmal defense?
He’ll certainly be able to prove that’s the case. But he’ll enter an entirely new defensive scheme for the first time in career with plenty of uncertainty. And the depth around him remains unproven, with less than 400 snaps between Blake Lynch and Troy Dye and zero snaps between Brian Asamoah and Chaz Surratt. If Kendricks can’t stay healthy or takes an even further step back, the Vikings are not in a position to adequately fill in the gaps.
But while 30 doesn’t sound that old for the modern NFL, linebackers tend to fall off rapidly around that age. Take a look at this chart from a PFF study done by Timo Riske.
Here’s how PFF explains how to read the chart: These charts show the percentage of the total WAR (wins above replacement) generated by players of a given age. The color code indicates the four quartiles: each colored part generates roughly 25 percent of the total WAR. In particular, once a player reaches the age colored in orange for their position, the average player there has already generated 75% of the total WAR for their career.”
So when looking at linebackers in particular, by age 28, a player has already generated 75 percent of their total WAR, and quickly after that age, their productivity declines. For Kendricks, his best years came when he was 27 and 28, which lines up pretty consistently with this chart. Kendricks has been a special player for a long time, but if he’s successful, it will be bucking a trend for his position.
Za’Darius Smith
Despite producing 51 sacks in 2021, second-best in the NFL, the Vikings' defensive line has a lot of work to improve. While Minnesota was opportunistic in the situations it was able to generate, it didn’t do it consistently. The Vikings ranked 29th in team pass rush win rate (34%), meaning pass-rushers were only able to beat their blocks (measured in the first 2.5 seconds after the snap) 34 percent of the time. Minnesota can’t expect to do that and generate the same sack output. They also ranked second-worst in the NFL in team run stop win rate.
And while Danielle Hunter likely has the biggest upside of any of Minnesota’s pass rushers, Smith is likely to be the most volatile. Last year, he played just two games due to a back injury and seemed primed to return to the Ravens this offseason before backing out of the deal. It’s unknown whether that was due to an injury, contract terms, or another factor. But for a team that is as familiar with Smith as the Ravens (he spent his first four seasons in Baltimore), for them to not follow through on the deal is peculiar.
That’s the iffy part of Smith, and it’s a big question mark. Minnesota needs its defensive line to be healthy, and Smith is a big part of that. Despite Rick Spielman spending middle- and late-round draft capital on defensive lineman for the last several years, D.J. Wonnum has proven to be the only player worthy of a potential rotation spot on defense. There’s not a lot of depth behind Smith and Hunter.
But if Smith’s back heals, there’s not much to suggest he’ll be bad. In his three previous seasons prior to 2021, Smith played all 16 games. In 2019 and 2020, Smith had a combined 32 sacks and 164 pressures, per PFF. In both seasons he had above an 84 PFF pass-rush grade, ranking amongst the 15 best defensive linemen in the league. And he was a workhorse, ranking amongst the top-10 in total pass-rush snaps.
Smith’s presence also cannot be overstated for Danielle Hunter. Hunter has spent nearly his entire career with another top-tier pass rusher in Everson Griffen alongside him. Griffen has eaten up double teams and provided a lethal one-two punch that has allowed Hunter to thrive. Hunter on the opposite end from Griffen or Smith is a different animal than Hunter with Wonnum.
