Which popular players will the Vikings cut or trade this offseason?
After winning 13 games only to be summarily dismissed in the playoffs by the Giants, the Minnesota Vikings now have to trudge through the data and determine who they afford to bring back for the 2023-24 season. Some of the decisions general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O'Connell will have to make involve popular players who are aging and expensive.
Harrison Smith carries a $19.2 million cap hit in 2023, according to Over The Cap. According to Pro Football Focus, Smith just had the second worst season of his career, ranking 29th among all safeties who were on the field for at least 610 snaps.
Did Smith struggle because he's lost a step or was it more the result of playing in defensive coordinator Ed Donatell's shell coverage that led to the Vikings giving up the most passing yards in the NFL?
With Josh Mettellus earning a captain's badge and ranking No. 1 by PFF among safeties who played at least 244 snaps this season, not to mention his $1 million cap hit in 2023, Smith's future in Minnesota does not appear to be on solid ground.
On the other side of the ball, Adam Thielen carries a $19.9 million cap hit next season, which is the 13th highest among wide receivers and just a sliver behind Stefon Diggs. Will the Vikings pay that in Thielen's age-33 season after coming off a year in which he averaged just 42 yards per game?
Running back Dalvin Cook still has three years left on his contract but the Vikings could cut him and only be charged with a $6.2 million cap hit next season. If they keep him, he's due to cost $14.1 million against the cap.
Will O'Connell feel comfortable giving the No. 1 running back job to Kene Nwangwu or Ty Chandler? Alexander Mattison is an unrestricted free agent so RB is another position that will be intensely analyzed this offseason.
Eric Kendricks takes an $11.4 million cap hit (10th highest among inside linebackers) into 2023 and he's coming off a season where he led the Vikings in tackles for a seventh time in his career even though PFF ranked him 34th of 54 linebackers who played at least 50% of the snaps this season.
Kendricks' PFF coverage grade was 49th of 54 linebackers under the same guidelines. Did Kendricks regress because of scheme or has he lost a step because he's on the verge of turning 31 years old while playing a punishing position?
The cap hits Za'Darius Smith ($15.6M) and Danielle Hunter ($13.1M) rank 12th and 15th among outside linebackers entering next season. Smith finished fourth among edge rushers with 78 QB pressures and Hunter was tied for seventh with 70.
While Smith is under contract for two more seasons, Hunter is likely going to need a new deal before he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2024. A long-term deal with Hunter would probably look something like the five-year, $110 million contract Bradley Chubb signed with the Dolphins.
And the Vikings also have to figure out what they're going to do with Dalvin Tomlinson, Patrick Peterson, Garrett Bradbury, Chandon Sullivan, Jonathan Bullard and Kris Boyd, all of whom are set to become unrestricted free agents.
Adding to the complex offseason ahead is the health of two of Minnesota's top 2022 draft picks. Safety Lewis Cine (32nd overall pick) suffered a season-ending broken ankle in Week 4 and cornerback Andrew Booth Jr. (42nd overall pick) battled injuries all season until undergoing knee surgery in late November. Will they be counted upon in 2023?
Meanwhile, there's all-world wide receiver Justin Jefferson due to make $4.1 million next season. It's a safe assumption that Jefferson, once he's eligible to negotiate a new deal this offseason, will be getting $30 million or more annually by the time the 2023-24 season begins.
