Which Vikings are under the most pressure heading into the 2022 season?
We’ve made it to training camp. Finally.
And while normally teams that replace their general manager and head coach enter their first season with relatively low stakes, this new regime has bypassed that grace period in favor of contending now. Instead of tearing the roster down to its studs and giving time to mold a new roster and make mistakes, they doubled down on the returning veterans and added more in key positions of need. Time will tell if it was the right move or not. But however you slice it, the regime has welcomed the pressure of contending.
So, as we head into training camp, it’s time to look at which individuals in the Vikings organization have the most pressure on them. The pressure could be to excel, get a new contract either or just to provide competence.
Let’s ride.
Garrett Bradbury
The Vikings have a Garrett Bradbury issue, whether they’d like to admit it or not. The new regime has been complimentary of Bradbury every time they’ve been asked about the former first-round pick and have yet to bring in any meaningful competition for Bradbury, despite declining his fifth-year option.
Still, Bradbury is the unquestioned starter for Minnesota heading into 2022. That’s a concern. Let’s go through the stats.
In 2022, Bradbury ranked last in PFF pass-blocking grade amongst centers (of those that played 50% of the team’s snaps). He ranked 15th of 26 centers in run-blocking grade.
Here’s the five worst pass-blocking centers from 2021.
And here’s how he ranked amongst all offensive lineman (Oh Oli Udoh).
Bradbury allowed 26 pressures, fifth-most for the position and he committed eight penalties which were third most. His six holding penalties were the most in the league. According to the Football Outsiders Almanac, he ranked 30th in blown block rate, which was actually an improvement from 2020 when he ranked dead last.
That’s just last year. Bradbury has ranked last in PFF passing blocking grade in every year of his career. He’s in the top-5 of pressures allowed in each of those seasons as well. And he hasn’t adequately made up for it with his run blocking. He has not finished higher than 15th in any season of his career as a run blocker, according to PFF. With the Vikings expected to pass more frequently than they ever have before, that’s not ideal.
Then there’s the contract situation. With the Vikings declining his fifth-year option, Bradbury will be a free agent after this season. With the regime that drafted Bradbury gone, there is no safety net. If he struggles again in 2022, he won’t be starting on the Vikings and it’s difficult to see where he would start, given his physical limitations. In theory, he makes sense only for zone-run heavy teams. That cuts down his potential suitors. His most attractive suitor just might be Minnesota, given its familiarity with him and schematic fit. But to return he’s going to need to have a career year and show progress in the passing game. He should finally have competence around him, with a budding Ezra Cleveland and several options at right guard, but will it be enough? Offensive line is a weak-link system and right now Bradbury looks to be the chink in the chain. If the offensive line struggles and Bradbury is to blame, he may be out of chances.
Kirk Cousins
For 90 percent of the NFL, any type of pressure list will include their quarterback. That’s the nature of the position and the responsibilities that come with it. Minnesota is no different, but Cousins’ particular situation is intriguing and particularly filled with pressure.
First, let’s begin with the contract situation. The Vikings clearly explored their options when it came to extending, trading, or standing pat with Cousins this offseason. Ultimately, they signed him to a one-year extension, effectively pushing the clock back 12 months and ensuring they’ll be back in this conundrum once this season ends.
That is unless Cousins does something to convince Minnesota he’s worth another lucrative contract extension. Cousins has repeatedly taken advantage of the NFL’s salary cap system, betting on himself with short-term deals to maximize leverage and money each and every season. But now at age 34, as the fifth-oldest starting quarterback in the league behind Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Matthew Stafford, Cousins is entering a new stage of his career where long-term stability could be more enticing. The guarantee that he’ll continue playing at a high level for the next four years is no longer there as it was when he originally signed in Minnesota. Cousins’ camp even expressed the willingness to look at long-term offers, but the Vikings opted for a short-term deal.
That’s where this season comes in. Cousins has repeatedly put up the numbers that would warrant a new contract extension. He’s ranked in the top-10 for passing DVOA in three straight seasons. He’s ranked fifth, 12th, and sixth in PFF passing grade in those seasons and continually put up strong traditional counting stats.
Yet that didn’t lead to a long-term contract extension. So what’s left to prove? A few things. First, he needs to win. Cousins has played in only four playoff games in his career. He’s 1-3. His career win-loss record is 59-59-2. Cousins’ teams have certainly had their deficiencies beyond his play. He’s not the main reason previous teams have faltered. But he has continuously failed to elevate him. The veteran quarterbacks who continue to get multi-year contract extensions into their late 30s – like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and most recently Matthew Stafford – elevate their teams despite deficiencies. That’s a task Cousins has yet to complete.
Then factor in the other intangible aspects. The Cousins-Mike Zimmer relationship, or lack thereof, has become an offseason talking point. And while much of the heat is rightfully on Zimmer, Cousins has felt no part of the blame. Zimmer certainly struggled to connect with players late in his tenure, but it’s always a two-way street. Now with an offensive-minded, players coach, there are no excuses for the relationship between head coach and quarterback to be fractured. Cousins needs to prove that can work. He also clearly leaves some to be desired when it comes to a leadership position inside the team.
If Cousins hopes to be a Viking for life, he needs to do more than just put up strong statistical seasons. If that was the only barrier to a new contract, he would’ve gotten one last year. Cousins needs to prove he can be a positive piece on a team that wins multiple playoff games.
Danielle Hunter and Irv Smith Jr.
It felt appropriate to group these two together because they both face pressure for similar reasons. Both missed extended time last season – in Smith’s case, all season – and both are looking for that next extension. But both have to prove a considerable amount before that happens.
For Hunter, it’s almost solely about staying healthy. He’s played a total of seven games in the last two seasons after missing only two games in the first five years of his career. There’s no denying what he’s done when he’s been on the field. Hunter already ranks ninth in Vikings history with 60.5 sacks despite playing significantly fewer games than everyone around him on that list. If there are any doubts about his play, it’s what he looks like without a dominant defensive player like Everson Griffen on the other end, but if Za’Darius Smith plays well this season, that question likely won’t get answered. Thus the pressure relies only on his body. Can it hold up? Or will the neck and/or pec injury continue to linger?
Smith is in the final year of his four-year rookie deal. With a cap number under $6 million, Smith will want to get paid this offseason. But thus far through his career, there isn’t much of a sample size to draw from. Smith has not caught more than 40 passes in his career and was constantly sharing a role with Kyle Rudolph. Now with Smith the clear No. 1 tight end, what can he do? Can he replicate the red zone role Rudolph had in previous years while showing an explosion that Rudolph never had? That’s what the reports were indicating from training camp last year before he injured his meniscus and lost the entire 2021 season. But he’s got to show it before a contract extension will follow.
Kevin O’Connell
As mentioned, it’s unusual to put pressure immediately on a first-year head coach. But the team’s surrounding circumstances necessitate it. The team has pushed its chips in on the returning core with only marginal roster changes from a year ago. Whether fair or not, that implies Vikings leadership believes that Mike Zimmer was to blame for the recent failures in Minnesota as they’ve largely kept the roster the same and expectations the same. It also implies they believe O’Connell is the missing link to fix it.
Now there is certainly room for improvement with the offense but the Vikings haven’t been dreadful on that side of the ball. They ranked 12th in total yards and 11th in passing offense last season. With nearly an identical unit plus the return of Irv Smith Jr. and more options at right guard, that’s expected to be the floor for O’Connell.
But even that is asking a lot for a first-year head coach. Every single day is new for O’Connell. It will be his first time running a training camp. It’s the first time he’s responsible for calling timeouts, making fourth down decisions, heck, even calling plays. Individually, it’s realistic he can do them all well. But stacked on top of each other, can he still have success? There’s a reason the average head coaching tenure is only 3 seasons. Some have it and some don’t. We won’t know with O’Connell until the results start coming. With plenty of pressure already on his plate, can he handle it? We will find out.
