Who will be available when the Vikings are on the clock?
For the past several weeks, Vikings fans have been looking at mock draft data, betting markets, and consensus big boards to try and decipher who could be available when the Vikings pick at No. 12 next week.
On their own, each of those methods allows us to get a pretty good idea of what the draft board will look like, but they all have their own flaws. For example, betting markets can be overly influenced by the public, a splash pro day, or even the latest release of a top analysts’ newest mock. Mock drafts can often be unrealistic as it pertains to trades and isn’t always done with the mindset of what will happen on draft night.
Now ESPN released its own draft predictor. It too has flaws. Unlike a consensus big board, it is taking big board data from only its crop of draft analysts. That narrows its scope a bit. But it still is the most concise and digestible predictor that I’ve seen this draft season.
So let’s take a look at the results and what it means for the Vikings.
This first graph shows which players are most likely to be taken with the No. 12 pick. Some of the names are surprising, some aren’t. Let’s first look at the surprising names.
Mississippi State offensive tackle Charles Cross
Cross has about a 14 percent chance to be drafted with the 12th pick, the third-highest odds. But the likelihood he suits up for the Vikings is much much lower. This appears to be banking on a potential Vikings trade down with a team looking to jump several offensive tackle-needy teams. Both the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens, which have picks 13 and 14, need an offensive tackle. Cross represents the last of the top-tier offensive lineman alongside Ikem Okwonu and Evan Neal. He is the No. 9 player on NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus big board and is some analysts’ top tackle. He is not likely to make it past the Ravens. That means any other teams in need of a tackle, like the Los Angeles Chargers or New Orleans Saints, could be looking to jump those teams. It’s also why Trevor Penning has a slim chance to go at No. 12.
I find it extremely interesting that the ESPN predictor sees Minnesota’s third-likeliest outcome as a trade and it exhibits the conundrum we’ve talked about in recent weeks. Minnesota may find themselves just missing out on the top tier of EDGE and cornerbacks. And if that’s the case, ESPN’s odds show a trade down could be more likely than a wide receiver selection.
Florida State EDGE Jermaine Johnson
ESPN sees Eden Prairie native Jermaine Johnson as the likeliest outcome with the 12th pick. Johnson has been one of the hardest prospects to peg. At the beginning of draft season, Johnson was thought of as a late first-round pick. But his athletic traits and standout combine performance in which he ran a blazing 4.58 40-yd dash (98th percentile) and had a broad jump of 10’5 (95th percentile) have caused him to take a massive jump. His over/under draft position on betting markets is now 9.5 favored towards the under and he’s ranked No. 11 on the consensus big board.
Clearly, ESPN is also having trouble figuring him out. Here is his draft position distribution according to their predictor, which shows a very large distribution of his range of outcomes.
Like Cross, I believe some of his likelihood of being the No. 12 pick is coming from a potential trade. The Texans need literally every position and the Ravens at No. 14 and the Eagles at No. 15 both need an EDGE too. One of those teams could look to jump the other, or a team later in the first round might try to climb them all. Johnson has the type of physical traits that could cause a team to be enamored with him and give up a boatload of assets to get him.
But it certainly isn’t solely motivated by that. Minnesota has put itself in a spot where they don’t need to take an EDGE in round one, but it is certainly plausible. Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith are both supremely talented but it’s fair to question if they will be on the field for the Vikings. Hunter has played seven games in the last two years and Smith played just one game last season. The depth behind them is filled with question marks.
Johnson is also the only one of the top-four EDGE prospects that might make it to the Vikings. Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson, Georgia’s Trayvon Walker, and Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux will all be drafted before the Vikings pick. ESPN doesn’t even show the odds of any of those players making it to pick No. 12 because it is so unlikely.
LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.
This name is no surprise to Vikings fans or anyone following the draft. For weeks, Stingley has been earmarked for Minnesota in nearly every mock draft. And it appears to be justified. The graph above shows Stingley has the second-highest chance to be the No. 12 pick and when you look just at Stingley’s distribution in the graph below, it illustrates that ESPN thinks his floor is right at the Vikings. Unlike Cross and Johnson, all of these odds assume Minnesota would stay put and draft Stingley. And after their pick, the odds drop off precipitously.
Now the question becomes, will he make it to pick No. 12? The second feature of ESPN’s draft predictor shows a player's chance of still being available at every pick of the draft. ESPN estimates there’s a 60 percent likelihood Stingley is available.
Here are a couple more things that stuck out to me with this graph….
QBs Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis
ESPN’s predictions indicate there is roughly a 70 percent chance Pickett is available at pick No. 12 and a 50 percent chance Willis is available. I would venture to say there is almost no chance that both of these quarterbacks are available at No. 12. History tells us someone will take one of these quarterbacks in the top-10, whether they deserve to be picked that high or not. But the model does suggest that whichever quarterback isn’t taken first could be available for the Vikings.
Now Minnesota has shown no indication they will take a quarterback in this draft and given they want to be competitive right now, it doesn’t make sense to take one. But it’s certainly intriguing that the Vikings could have their pick of the group (minus one).
The WRs
I’ve been a big proponent of the Vikings taking a wide receiver in the first round, but it’s been hard to figure out who could be available to them at No. 12. The top-four receivers – Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, USC’s Drake London, and Alabama’s Jameson Williams – are tightly bunched together. It’s hard to find two draft analysts who have them ranked the exact same way.
But at least in ESPN’s projections there appear to be two clear front runners, London and Wilson. ESPN gives just about a 30 percent chance London is available at No. 12 and less than a 10 percent chance for Wilson. Meanwhile, Olave and Williams both have over a 90 percent chance of being available.
Overall, ESPN’s projections don’t see the Vikings taking a wide receiver often, and that matches how most draft analysts view it.
I found this stat from NBC Sports EDGE’s Tyler Forness interesting.
And none of those three offensive players were wide receivers. Still, I think there’s a chance the Vikings take a wide receiver.
If we expect Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to approach the draft in an analytical mindset, that means he will be looking to draft players who may slip down draft boards and players of high positional value. Wide receiver is arguably the second-most impactful position for winning. And offense is much more consistent year-to-year. If Adofo-Mensah can build a consistently great offensive team, that will go a long way for Minnesota’s long-term prospects.
More Vikings from Bring Me The Sports and Purple Insider
Ex-GM Rick Spielman is a fan of QB Malik Willis
What should and shouldn't be off the table for the Vikings in the draft
Are any of the QBs in the draft worth taking?
Should the Vikings be all in on Derek Stingley Jr.?
The Vikings can now take the best available player in the draft
