Training camp preview: Who will win Mr. Mankato in 2022 (and what does it mean)?
Training camp is less than a week away which means we can finally begin breaking down some right guard play, analyze Cousins’ adjustment to another new offense, and fall for the latest Dalvin Cook position change tease.
But more important than any of that is the return of the annual Mr. Mankato award, given to the top under-the-radar training camp performer.
And while the Mr. Mankato award is generally looked at as a fun way to pass through the monotonous dog days of training camp and preseason, it is also an informative look at who the collective fan and media masses believe to be the best young performer. And by diving into previous season winners, we can create expectations for top performers heading into this year’s training camp.
So let’s take a look back at the previous winners:
2020: Cam Dantzler
2019: Brandon Dillon
2018: Kyle Sloter
2017: Tashawn Bower
2016: Jayron Kearse
2015: Stefon Diggs
2014: Adam Thielen
From a glance, it appears there’s about a 50 percent hit rate with the Mr. Mankato award. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen became pro bowlers, Jayron Kearse struggled to carve out a role in Minnesota but has become a valuable piece of the Dallas defense and Cam Dantzler has carved out a starting role.
However, that’s taking a long view of their careers. Isolated for just the season that they won the Mr. Mankato award, it paints a different picture. Here’s a look at each winner’s stats in the season they won the award.
Dantzler: 2nd most CB snaps on the team, passer rating against 94.0 (43rd of 92 cornerbacks with 300+ snaps), Reception percentage allowed - 64.2% (47th of 92), 69.8 PFF coverage grade (27th of 92), 11.6 Yd/Rec (39th of 92), 43 catches allowed for 498 yards, 4 TDs allowed, 2 INTs
Dillon: Made the team, waived after Week 1
Sloter: Did not appear in any games
Bower: Registered 10 snaps over two games, collected one sack
Kearse: Registered 78 snaps over six games (52 came in one game), four tackles, one pass breakup
Diggs: Played 14 games, caught 56 passes for 746 yards and 4 TDs, 78.9 PFF receiving grade (21st of 83 WRs with at least 50 targets), led the team in targets and receptions
Thielen: 152 offensive snaps over 15 games, 8 catches for 137 yards, and one touchdown
Only two Mr. Mankato winners have become key contributors in year one: Dantzler and Diggs. Dantzler’s numbers suggest he was around a league-average cornerback as a rookie while Diggs was the team’s most productive receiver as a rookie. Meanwhile, Thielen and Kearse saw minimal action outside special teams. And Sloter, Dillon, and Bower had nearly no impact in year one or in any year since.
Generally, this gives us a pretty accurate picture of the danger of looking too much into training camp and preseason results. It can work in certain instances, but it’s hardly predictive of future NFL success.
PFF has done several studies on this over the last few years. In 2019, Timo Riske completed an analysis looking at the correlation between preseason performance and regular season performance. Riske found that preseason performance generally isn’t predictive of regular season success.
Now, the study gets a bit complicated, but in layman’s terms, Riske looked at players dating back to 2013 with at least 120 regular season snaps and 20 preseason snaps. He then randomly split those regular snaps into two sample sizes, so he could compare how close each sample size resembled each other (i.e. find the correlation between the two)
The result is this graph. The red dot indicates preseason performance while the blue dots represent regular season performance. And for ease of reading: the closer the red dot is to the blue dispersion = the higher correlation.
So, what this tells us is that other than rushing grade, preseason performance is not very predictive of regular season performance. Pass blocking and run blocking are far apart, as are passing grades for quarterbacks. Similarly for defense, coverage grade, pass rush grade, and rush defense grade all had wide margins between preseason and regular season.
Riske gives several hypotheses for why this might be the case and he settles on a few, particularly for the offensive side of the ball. First, by and large, teams don’t unveil their entire playback during the preseason, meaning the plays that teams run in the preseason aren’t representative of what the actual offense will be, thus giving an inaccurate representation of who does well in their offense. Funnily enough, one of the coordinators that Riske found that actually did show much of their scheme during the preseason was former offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. On the other side of the spectrum, Riske found Sean McVay is one of the stingiest coaches, hiding much of the team’s tendencies. It’s a fair assumption that O’Connell will follow in that mold and that the Vikings’ preseason performances of the past won’t be as indicative moving forward.
But while individual regular performances are largely not predictive based on preseason grade, there is a bit of a split on offense and defense when it comes to team tendencies. While offenses choose not to reveal much, defenses frequently showcase their schemes in the preseason.
To do this, let’s take a quick look at one more PFF study, this one done by Arjun Menon in 2021. And here’s a graph to illustrate that:
There are only small differences in the coverage teams run, and Menon explains the discrepancies between preseason and regular season for Cover 1 and Cover 3 simply.
“Teams do like to play more Cover 1 and Cover 3 in the preseason, but those are also the most used coverages in the entire league. Thus, seeing if depth players can fit into those schemes means that teams run them more often in the preseason,” Menon said.
So, while Riske’s analysis shows there’s generally not a correlation in individual performances, there can be some value in looking at general schematic trends, particularly for defense. For the Vikings, that’s valuable insight considering they will be running an entirely different defensive scheme for the first time in nine years.
Now that we got some of that nerding out of the way, let’s get to why you’re all reading this:
The contenders for this year’s Mr. Mankato award.
Reminder, there are two rules. The player must be a third-round pick or later and they must not be an “established NFL player.” Now, there’s some subjectivity to this second stipulation. For example, I left Kene Nwangwu off this list but kept Ihmir Smith-Marsette on.
The Rookies
Brian Asamoah
It’s still unclear how much the Vikings plan to play their starters in the preseason, but with two older linebackers ahead of Asamoah on the depth chart, if they decide to do any resting of veterans, Asamoah will be in line for plenty of training camp and preseason action.
And Asamoah has the type of athletic ability that could shine in preseason games and lead to big plays that could vault him into the conversation. His Relative Athletic Score was 8.89 and his 40-yd dash and broad jump were both in the 92nd percentile or higher.
Akayleb Evans
Similarly, Evans could see some playing time especially if Andre Booth Jr. has to miss any time as he returns from his injury. Another athletic prospect, that will shine well, and if he has a few interceptions, that makes him an automatic candidate.
Ty Chandler
Offensive players have an inherent edge in these types of awards because their ability is easier to see and their production is easier to count. Dalvin Cook is not likely to see much time and there’s not much reason to get Alexander Mattison much run either. Chandler is also on the fringe of the roster, so a strong preseason performance is necessary for his potential survival on the 53-man roster.
Jalen Nailor
Another late-round pick with some upside. Nailor could flash some ability on special teams, which gives him more value. However, there figures to be plenty of wide receivers ahead of him on the depth chart, so his playing time alongside meaningful players could be limited.
The Incumbents
It’s not just rookies who win Mr. Mankato. Thielen won the award in his second year out of college as did Kyle Sloter. So some second-year players can garner consideration.
Zach Davidson
Still, without a clear No. 2 or 3 tight end on the roster, there figures to be a battle in training camp. Davidson’s raw athletic ability was the reason he was drafted in 2021 and he again profiles as the type of player who could flash, particularly with the rest of the tight ends being just so-so athletes.
Kellen Mond
Mond was the overwhelming favorite to win this award last year. And while he can’t be considered as much this year, a quarterback has the easiest path to this award (motions at Sloter). If Mond puts up strong preseason numbers and grabs the backup QB job, he could easily win Mr. Mankato.
Chazz Surratt
Surratt’s potential is limited by the fact that the Vikings drafted Brian Asamoah, but for all the reasons Asamoah has a chance, Surratt does too. There should be playing time available and that’s what you need to win this award.
Patrick Jones
There’s hardly any depth behind Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith, both of whom are likely to be on some sort of load management in training camp. Insert Patrick Jones, who has been talked up by Vikings staffers in the lead-up to training camp. He profiles as a strong pass-rusher, who could put up several sacks and push himself into this conversation.
Janarius Robinson
A dark horse here, Robinson missed all of last season with a lower-body injury. But again, for all the reasons Jones has a chance, Robinson does too. He’s a 2021 fourth-round pick and because he missed all of last season, there is a fun comeback arc that could make him a potential winner.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette
And finally, the Week 17 darling of last season. I considered leaving him off the list based on that performance alone, but he only had 86 total snaps this season, so that doesn’t strike me as an “established NFL player.” He certainly could be the favorite based on that performance alone and figures to have a prominent role if O’Connell mirrors McVay’s receiver-happy pass sets.
So, who you got?
