Why Matthew Coller thinks the Vikings will extend Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins is 34 years old and arguably playing the best football of his career. Aside from an ugly pick-six on Sunday, Cousins threw for 460 yards and four touchdowns to help the Vikings come back from a 33-0 hole to beat the Colts 39-36 in overtime.
Not only was it the largest comeback in NFL history, it was Cousins' seventh come-from-behind win this season. He also rallied the Vikings from 17 down to beat the Bills in Buffalo and led double-digit comebacks against the Lions in Week 3, Bears in Week 5 and Commanders in Week 9.
The question the Minnesota front office will have to answer sooner than later is what to do with Cousins long term. Purple Insider's Matthew Coller thinks there's a very strong chance the Vikings find a way to make Cousins a Viking for life with a contract extension after the season.
"Kirk Cousins will not take any deal that's not great for him. That's not a criticism, it's jus a reality," said Coller, answering a mailbag question in his latest Purple Insider podcast.
"I look at what happened against Indy as the tipping point to definitively say Kirk Cousins signs an extension. Anything can happen and sometimes we say things definitively and they don't come to fruition, but in this case are you telling me this team's going to win 12 or 13 games and have a comeback like that and all the comebacks they've had and then they're going to come to the table and say, 'No, sorry, Kirk. We're going the Alex Smith route.' I'd be very surprised."
The one caveat Coller believes could change the dynamic is a playoff failure.
"The only way that this could be changed – and we do know that this ownership will change on a whim – is if they go into the first round and score 3 points against Washington and lose 21-3 and get booed off the field and Cousins throws for 140 yards and gets sacked five times. Maybe," Coller said.
"But all the things that he's shown this year, the way the team has come around him, the way he's connected with the coach, the way he's gotten [Justin] Jefferson the ball. I just have a very tough time thinking that they're going to just be like, 'Sorry, Kirk. You're getting older so we're going to sign somebody else.'"
If the 2022 season were a movie, Cousins' character development would be astonishing. He went from being questioned and criticized and a failure in big games to Kirko Chainz, the shirtless bad boy known for leading epic comebacks and being a gunslinger when the Vikings needed him most.
What would an extension cost the Vikings? Coller thinks the guaranteed money at signing would likely be in the Russell Wilson ballpark, which was $124 million paid by the Broncos. Wilson's deal was five years for $242.5 million, or an average annual salary of $48 million.
The Vikings could do something similar for Cousins and pay him a ton of money up front to eat away at the $36.25 million cap hit his current contract has in 2023. Wilson's 2022 cap hit in Denver is $17 million. That would free up salary cap space to sign free agents and help keep the Vikings' roster solid in 2023.
Without Cousins, there is no obvious replacement to keep the Vikings competitive in 2023. Minnesota, already with 11 wins, will be picking late in the first round of the draft so it's highly unlikely one of the premiere quarterbacks will fall in their lap.
And after pushing the envelope this season do they really want to have a new QB have to come in during the offseason and learn Kevin O'Connell's offense when Cousins has it down and could streamline the process entering 2023?
Extending Cousins gives Minnesota the opportunity to draft a QB and develop a QB, which isn't so bad if the 2022 version of Cousins shows up in the playoffs and again next season.
