Why the Vikings should be locked in on Bijan Robinson
During the first quarter of the Vikings' game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, the Vikings were in need of a cure for their New Year's Day hangover.
The Packers jumped out to a 14-3 lead and the Vikings were driving into Green Bay territory. The running game – like everything else the Vikings were doing – had been struggling to that point and offensive coordinator Wes Phillips had an idea.
The Vikings lined up and faked a handoff to Dalvin Cook. Kirk Cousins read the field and looked for a shot downfield, but there was one problem: the Packers didn't bite. Quay Walker and De'Vondre Campbell continued to drop back and Cousins was forced to dump it down to Cook for a short gain.
Some fans would blame Cousins for his risk-averse style of play or not executing the fake properly, but there was a time when teams feared the Vikings running game and opened up opportunities for big plays.
Those days have come and gone as Cook isn't the same running back he was two years ago and the time for change has come for the Vikings backfield, and it could include the arrival of Bijan Robinson.
For years, the Vikings relied on Cook to be their workhorse. Since 2019, only Nick Chubb (5,345) and Derrick Henry (6,042) have racked up more rushing yards than Cook's 5,024. He's shrugged off the injury issues that plagued the early years of his career and has run for over 1,000 yards in each of the past four seasons.
However, Cook's 2022 numbers turned out to be fool's gold. Among running backs with at least 100 carries, Cook ranked 36th in Football Outsider's yards above replacement metric. Even more damning was that Cook was actually 24 yards below a replacement-level back.
A majority of Cook's success came on big runs but even those were less frequent than in years past. According to Pro Football Focus, Cook had 12 designed runs of 15 yards or more which was down from 19 such runs in 2021 and his lowest since 2018.
Cook's breakaway percentage – which measures the frequency of designed runs of 15 yards or more – also dropped from 37.6 percent of his runs in 2021 to 27.7 percent in 2022.
This makes Cook's status to return in 2023 murky as he's set for a $14.1 million cap hit. His situation is similar to Adam Thielen where the production doesn't match his salary but if they move on, the Vikings will have to find a replacement.
Some Vikings fans will vouch for Alexander Mattison, Ty Chandler or Kene Nwangwu to take over but that trio received 78 combined carries last season.
With the lack of faith from the coaching staff, it appears that Cook's replacement would come from the outside but even that carries some risk. This year's free-agent class has some big names as Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery are set to hit the market, but ditching one high-priced running back just to pay another would be counterproductive.
In 2020, PFF's Marcus Mosher pointed out that no leading rusher on the team that won the Super Bowl made more than $2.5 million. If we remove Percy Harvin – who made $2.5 million for the 2013 Seattle Seahawks – no running back has made more than $2 million.
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That trend continued last season when the Los Angeles Rams paid Sony Michel $1.7 million to be their leading rusher.
This could turn the Vikings' attention to the draft where 2023 figures to be a buyer's year at running back. UCLA's Zach Charbonnet, Alabama's Jahmyr Gibbs, Syracuse's Sean Tucker and Auburn's Tank Bigsby are some of the names that could be available on the second day of the draft, but that brings us to Bijan Robinson.
Robinson is the top back in this year's class and ran for 1,580 yards and 18 touchdowns for the Longhorns last season. In previous years, Robinson would be considered a top-10 pick, but with teams getting younger and cheaper at running back, he could slide to the bottom half of the first round.
Yes, the Vikings need a cornerback, a linebacker and potentially an edge rusher to restore their defense, but none of those players would make the immediate impact that a player like Robinson would and few would come at a value that Robinson could provide financially.
The phrase around the analytics community is that running backs don't matter, but that doesn't mean that you shouldn't have a good one. There's also the argument of drafting the best player vs. drafting for need.
If Robinson falls to Pick 23 then he would arguably be the best player left in the draft. He could be the running back that can bring big plays back to the Vikings' offense and make them more successful in 2023.
