ESPN FPI predicts top 10 loss in major Big Ten matchup on Saturday

ESPN’s FPI picks Indiana over Illinois in top-20 clash

ESPN's Football Power Index is predicting No. 9 Illinois will lose to No. 19 Indiana in a major Big Ten matchup on Saturday. | Mike Carter-Imagn Images

A rare ranked clash between Illinois and Indiana is shaping up to be one of the weekend’s biggest games, and ESPN’s Football Power Index is forecasting an upset if measuring by AP Top 25 ranking. According to the predictive model, No. 19 Indiana is favored to defeat No. 9 Illinois on Saturday night in Bloomington, giving the Hoosiers a 62.8% advantage of 37.2 for the Fighting Illini.

The game marks the first ranked meeting between the two programs since 1950, a drought that underscores how unusual this spotlight moment is for both teams. Illinois enters at 3-0 after a dominant 38-0 shutout of Western Michigan, while Indiana is also unbeaten following a 73-0 rout of Indiana State.

For programs better known for basketball legacies, this matchup offers a chance to prove their football rise is no fluke. That’s exactly where ESPN’s predictive analytics sees a possible shift in power.

Why ESPN’s Football Power Index Favors Indiana Over Illinois

ESPN’s Football Power Index is a predictive tool that blends past performance, roster data, and situational factors to simulate outcomes. For this game, the model leans toward Indiana, giving the Hoosiers an advantage despite Illinois’ higher ranking in the AP poll.

Indiana has been steadily climbing the advanced metrics. Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings have them at No. 13, while FPI places them at No. 16. Illinois, by comparison, checks in at No. 16 in SP+ and No. 23 in FPI.

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) has thrown for 708 yards and nine touchdowns to start the 2025 college football season. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Even though the Illini have been more battle-tested with a road win at Duke, the model projects Indiana’s balance on offense and defense as the difference.

Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has nine touchdowns and no interceptions through three games, spreading the ball to receivers like Omar Cooper Jr., who exploded for 207 yards against Indiana State. The Hoosiers’ depth and efficiency on both sides of the ball make them an attractive pick in the analytics, especially at home.

Illinois’ Breakthrough Meets Indiana’s Proof Point

Illinois has surged under Bret Bielema, returning to the AP top 10 for the first time since 2001. The Illini have built their 3-0 start on efficiency, leading the nation in turnover margin and averaging 45 points per game. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has eight touchdowns without an interception, while Hank Beatty has totaled 466 all-purpose yards. Defensively, Gabe Jacas has become one of the Big Ten’s most disruptive forces with 6.5 sacks and two forced fumbles.

Indiana brings its own momentum, posting a 27-5 record since the start of 2024 and ranking in the top 20 of both SP+ and FPI. Mendoza has guided a clean, explosive offense, and the Hoosiers’ dominance against weaker competition has heightened anticipation for this test.

Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) has 709 passing yards and eight touchdowns through three games. | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Critics point to their schedule, but Indiana now has the chance to validate last year’s playoff breakthrough against a proven opponent.

This matchup represents a rare stage where both Illinois and Indiana can redefine their place in the Big Ten. The winner will emerge as a serious contender in the conference race, while the loser risks being pushed out of the playoff picture before October. Illinois will face Indiana at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington on Saturday.