ESPN SP+ model predicts final score for Louisville-James Madison

To tease college football fans before a full throttle Week 2 Saturday, James Madison and Louisville kick off on Friday night under the L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium lights.

The Cardinals started their season with a 51-17 drubbing of in-state foe Eastern Kentucky last Saturday, while the Dukes handled this author's namesake, Weber State, by a 45-10 score. Ahead of what should be a relatively competitive ACC-Sun Belt tilt, take a look at all of the relevant metrics, such as SP+ predictions, point spreads, win probabilities, and numbers on these two programs overall.

Game Metrics

Projected Score: Louisville 35, James Madison 23
Projected Margin: Louisville by 11.4 points
Win Probability: Louisville 76%

ESPN Spread: Louisville -14.5
ESPN Win Probability: 77.9%

If you're looking for an edge, the SP+ obviously sides with JMU against the point spread. The Dukes have beaten power conference foes since joining the Div. 1 ranks, but Louisville isn't a particularly vulnerable ACC team. In fact, the Cardinals are right on the outside of the top contenders for the league and have some consequential matchups in-league that could flip the narrative as the season goes along. For Card Country, this is must-win territory. Anything less would run the train right off those railroad tracks down there on Floyd Street.

Louisville Numbers

Metric: Score (Ranking)
SP+: 15.2 (20th)
SP+ OFF: 38.0 (6th)
SP+ DEF: 22.7 (40th)
SP+ ST: -0.1 (97th)

Jeff Brohm's offenses found success at virtually every school he's coached at, especially as the head guy. Just look back at his Western Kentucky and Purdue teams; they could put up points, if nothing else. The same has been true at Louisville and the trend is ready to continue with USC import Miller Moss at quarterback. For this club, special teams woes are actually the biggest flaw while the defense isn't a gaping hole but also won't win them many games on its own.

James Madison Numbers

Metric: Score (Ranking)
SP+: 6.3 (44th)
SP+ OFF: 30.5 (43rd)
SP+ DEF: 24.3 (50th)
SP+ ST: 0.1 (54th)

James Madison appears to be a very balanced football team across all three phases. They don't shoot themselves in the foot and their offense can throw up a few touchdowns on any foe, meanwhile the defense has talent enough to force a turnover or make life difficult on a power conference offense. Look for a takeaway or special teams error to help the Dukes to victory if they do end up winners Friday evening.