Greg McElroy picks winner of LSU-Vanderbilt matchup

Greg McElroy predicts a Vanderbilt win over LSU, pointing to Diego Pavia’s dual-threat play and the Commodores’ explosive offense against the Tigers’ elite defense.

Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia (2) | Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The matchup between No. 10 LSU and No. 17 Vanderbilt is one of the most intriguing games of the weekend, pitting one of the sport’s most decorated programs against one of its most surprising. Both teams enter at 5–1, but for different reasons. LSU’s defense has carried the Tigers through uneven offensive performances, while Vanderbilt has stunned the college football world with its explosive attack.

On ESPN’s Always College Football podcast, analyst Greg McElroy shared why he believes Vanderbilt will come out on top. The former Alabama quarterback pointed to how the Commodores’ misdirection and tempo could throw LSU’s defense off balance. “I’m taking Vanderbilt,” McElroy said. “I think Vanderbilt’s offense and the misdirection could force LSU to be a little bit more conservative, and that plays away from their strength. I think Vanderbilt will force a couple mistakes, and I also think it’s got a chance to be a very low-scoring game. I would hammer the under in this matchup.”

Vanderbilt is a rare favorite over LSU, listed by oddsmakers as a 2.5-point favorite, marking the first time since 1948 that the Commodores have been favored against the Tigers. With both programs eyeing the playoff conversation, the winner in Nashville could gain valuable ground heading into the back half of the season.

McElroy Highlights Matchups Between Offense and Defense

McElroy emphasized that this game is a battle of contrasts, calling Vanderbilt’s offense “one of the best in the country” and LSU’s defense “elite.” Vanderbilt ranks No. 1 nationally in offensive efficiency and averages more than 43 points per game. Quarterback Diego Pavia has powered the Commodores’ attack with 14 passing touchdowns, 352 rushing yards, and a 71.4 percent completion rate. McElroy noted that Pavia’s dual-threat ability could be the deciding factor.

On the other side, LSU’s defense allows just 11.8 points per game, good for fifth in the country. Coordinator Blake Baker’s unit has specialized in creating pressure and forcing teams into predictable passing situations. LSU has held opponents under 300 total yards per game and allows barely four yards per carry. That defensive front will be tested by Vanderbilt’s top-ranked rushing attack led by Sedrick Alexander, Makhilyn Young, and Pavia himself.

Vanderbilt Commodores running back Sedrick Alexander (28) has 319 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 50 carries. | Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

McElroy also pointed to the quarterback play as a swing factor. LSU signal-caller Garrett Nussmeier has dealt with a lingering abdominal injury and bouts of inconsistency. He has thrown nine touchdowns and five interceptions while averaging 236 yards per game against Power Four competition. McElroy mentioned that Nussmeier’s tendency to struggle under pressure could align poorly with Vanderbilt’s top-15 pass rush, led by Miles Capers and Khordae Sydnor.

Vanderbilt’s path to victory, McElroy said, involves running the ball effectively, winning the turnover battle, and controlling the clock. “They got to lean on a methodical tempo,” he explained. “They have to grind down the LSU defense. They have to win time of possession. And they also have to win the turnover battle.”

Vanderbilt Looks to Continue Breakthrough Season

Saturday’s game represents a major opportunity for Vanderbilt to prove it belongs among the SEC’s elite. The Commodores have not been favored against a ranked opponent in more than four decades, and their 5–1 start has already made history.

With upcoming games against Missouri and Texas, this three-week stretch could determine whether Vanderbilt’s playoff aspirations stay alive.

Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea has the Commodores off to a 5-1 start this season. | Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

LSU, meanwhile, is fighting to keep its own playoff path intact after inconsistent offensive showings. The Tigers have scored more than 20 points only once against Power Four competition, relying heavily on their defense to carry them through. While McElroy acknowledged the challenge of facing a disciplined unit like LSU’s, he believes Vanderbilt’s creativity and Pavia’s mobility could make the difference.

Kickoff between No. 10 LSU and No. 17 Vanderbilt is set for Saturday at noon ET on ABC.