Josh Pate puts Ole Miss on notice, upset watch for Arkansas in Week 3

Pate flags Ole Miss for upset risk as Arkansas looms.

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green is looking to lead his team to an upset win over the Ole Miss Rebels in Week 3. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

College football guru Josh Pate has circled a matchup few have mentioned this week. Arkansas travels to No. 17 Ole Miss on Saturday night in Oxford, and Pate is sounding the upset alarm.

During Thursday’s episode of his College Football Show, Pate said the Rebels could be in danger against an Arkansas team that has been largely overlooked in September. Ole Miss is favored by a touchdown, but Pate ranked this game a “seven” on his upset alert scale.

“How about this game happening in Oxford, Jesse? No one’s talked about it all week,” Pate said. “Did you even know Arkansas and Ole Miss were playing this weekend? … Maybe you remember last year Ole Miss was up 28–3 in this game 20 minutes into it and you’re thinking, ‘Rinse, repeat.’ Well, I don’t feel that way.”

Pate Sees Quarterback Edge For Arkansas Against Ole Miss

Arkansas has surged to a 2-0 start behind quarterback Taylen Green, who has thrown for 561 yards, 10 touchdowns and two interceptions with a 71.9% completion rate. He added 151 rushing yards and a score last week against Arkansas State.

Pate argued that Green’s play could give the Razorbacks an advantage. “I’m putting a seven on the upset alert meter because I think Arkansas has the better quarterback situation, at least as it stands right now going into this game,” Pate said.

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green could boost his Heisman resume with an upset win over Ole Miss. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

“Now, Ole Miss has the better roster situation—or so I think—but we’re still too early in the season to know about the SEC.”

Both offenses have put up eye-popping numbers. Arkansas ranks fourth nationally with 591 yards per game and fifth in scoring at 54 points per game. Ole Miss is close behind, sixth in total offense at 575 yards and averaging 46.5 points. The Razorbacks hold a slight defensive edge, allowing just 10.5 points per game compared to Ole Miss’ 15.

Key Stats Show Narrow Margins Between Rebels And Razorbacks

Turnovers and penalties may swing the game. Ole Miss ranks 118th nationally with a minus-3 turnover margin, while Arkansas sits 25th with a plus-2 margin. The Rebels are also one of the most penalized teams in the country, averaging 68.5 yards per game compared to 47 for Arkansas.

Both teams excel in the red zone defensively. Ole Miss has allowed opponents to score just 57.1% of the time, ranking 15th in FBS. Arkansas has been even better, sitting fifth at 50%. That ability to hold drives short could determine whether Pate’s forecast becomes reality.

Ole Miss Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin has his team 2-0 to start the 2025 college football season. | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

“At the very least, I expect a very, very competitive, fiery effort out of Sam Pittman’s guys,” Pate said. “Don’t be mocking me—Kentucky went in there and beat them last year. So, don’t think it can’t happen.”

Ole Miss and Arkansas will kick off at 7 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN.