Clemson vs. Tennessee Orange Bowl game prediction, preview
Two premier college football powers meet up in the Orange Bowl looking to end things on a high note after stumbling to forgettable late season showings as Tennessee and Clemson square off on Friday.
Clemson is the reigning ACC champion after taking out North Carolina and finally making the permanent switch at quarterback, as Cade Klubnik looked good in place of D.J. Uiagalalei, who transferred out to Oregon State this offseason.
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Tennessee was the No. 1 ranked offense in college football much of the season before a loss at Georgia ended its perfect season and then a surprise loss to unranked South Carolina knocked it out of the College Football Playoff hunt.
Big Orange also underwent a quarterback change, albeit involuntarily after phenom starter Hendon Hooker tore his ACL in the Carolina game, and the Vols moving to Joe Milton, himself a potential star with a big arm and running ability.
Here's what you need to know about the game between the Tigers and the Volunteers, with an updated prediction and betting information.
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Tennessee prediction, preview
Clemson vs. Tennessee Orange Bowl prediction, preview
How to watch, stream
When: Fri., Dec. 30
Time: 8 p.m. ET, 7 p.m. CT
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Game odds, point spread, betting lines
Point spread: Clemson -6 (-118) | Tennessee +6 (-110)
Total: 63.5 points | Over -110 | Under -125
Moneyline: Clemson -250 | Tennessee +170
FPI prediction: Tennessee has the narrow 57.0 percent chance to win the game, compared to Clemson at 43.0 percent, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times.
Spread consensus pick: Clemson -6 (54% of bets are on the Tigers)
Place your bets: Clemson vs. Tennessee picks, predictions for Orange Bowl
Tennessee football betting trends
+ Vols are 9-3 against the spread overall this season
+ Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games
+ UT is 4-0 against the spread in its last 4 non-conference games
+ The under is 7-0 in Vols' last 7 when allowing <170 passing yards last game
Clemson football betting trends
+ Clemson is 7-6 against the spread overall this season
+ Tigers are 0-4 ATS in last 4 non-conference games
+ The over is 4-0 in Clemson's last 4 after a SU win of 20-plus points
+ Clemson is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 bowl games
Orange Bowl: Keys to victory
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Clemson wins if: Klubnik can get behind the Vols secondary. The Clemson quarterback has plenty of options to cut through any defense with a battery of intermediary throws, especially against a Tennessee back seven that ranks 127th nationally against the pass and surrendered more than 450 air yards in three different games.
But it also had 20 takeaways, was plus-9 in turnover margin, and placed 5th in the SEC in scoring defense. Clemson needs Klubnik, who had 279 yards and a TD in the ACC title game, to be on point from the start as Tennessee was moderately successful against the run, allowing 112 yards per game, and could bottle up Will Shipley (1,110 yards, 15 TDs) more than he's used to being.
Tennessee wins if: It keeps Joe Milton clean in the pocket and runs the ball well. With how well UT threw the football, it's easy to overlook how well they ran, averaging over 200 yards per game, an advantage it'll have to develop with Hooker out of the picture after leading the team to No. 3 national and No. 1 SEC marks in passing this year.
Running the ball against Clemson is a tough job when looking at this stout defensive front featuring the likes of Bryan Bresee and Tyler Davis, but notably not Myles Murphy, who is turning pro. Clemson notably struggled on the back end at several points this season and by attacking the secondary, the Vols can cancel out the Tigers' strength up front.
Clemson vs. Tennessee Prediction
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Tennessee was the offensive darling of college football most of the season but without Hooker, that production can't help but take a slight step backwards.
Milton has the arm to go deep and Clemson will give him a few shots, but the Tigers have enough power up front to apply pressure on the Volunteers quarterback so he won't be able to take advantage as often as he needs to.
Klubnik is an expert passer, a former 5-star recruit from Texas, and while he may not have the kind of studs at receiver that Clemson has produced in the CFP era, there's enough to adequately push the Vols' sluggish back seven out of position. Which, in turn, will help open running lanes in close range for Shipley to move the chains, extend drives, and run the clock late in the game.
Usually, the teams that can run the ball and play better defense wins these games. On paper, that advantage belongs to Clemson, but not without a fight.
College Football HQ Orange Bowl prediction: Clemson 37, Tennessee 30 (Clemson -6, Over 66)
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