College football bowl predictions against the spread for 2022-23 games
College football bowl season is here and now it's time to make our picks and predictions against the spread for the remaining games on the schedule.
Making those predictions with any accuracy is getting to be more difficult in the modern era as rosters and whole programs can come into bowl season looking different than they did in the regular season.
Coaches can move on and players can opt out or go into the transfer portal. And then of course, the more general question: do the players even care? Some do, as backups and reserves should get some better playing time with starters electing to sit out these games.
Going bowling: College football bowl schedule for 2022-23
The players who do care are those appearing in the College Football Playoff this year, with two semifinal games set for New Year's Eve: Michigan faces off against TCU, and Georgia meets Ohio State to close out the calendar year.
Here's what we make of every bowl game this postseason: Check back for updates regarding point spreads, opt outs, and other info that may change until kickoff.
College football bowl predictions against the spread
College football ATS picks for 2022 bowl games
Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook and may change after publication
Pinstripe Bowl: Minnesota (-10.5) vs. Syracuse. The Gophers are 1-4 against the spread when favored by 10 or fewer and have the overall edge in both total offense and defense, while the Orange are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 overall. ATS pick: Syracuse +10.5
Cheez-It Bowl: Florida State (-9.5) vs. Oklahoma. OU played some close games late in the year but struggled defensively all season while the Seminoles boast a balanced attack led by a strong rushing game. Oklahoma is 1-6 ATS against winning teams and FSU was 5-1 against the spread in its last 6 after an ATS loss. ATS pick: Florida State -9.5
Alamo Bowl: Texas (-3) vs. Washington. The Huskies are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 after an ATS win and have quarterback Michael Penix, college football's leader in passing yards, returning. ATS pick: Washington +3
Duke's Mayo Bowl: NC State (-1) vs. Maryland. Despite losing Devin Leary, first to injury and then the portal, the Wolfpack have played well down the stretch, beating Wake and UNC as an underdog and have the superior defense while the Terps have lost 3 of their last 4. ATS pick: NC State -1
Sun Bowl: UCLA (-6) vs. Pittsburgh. UCLA has the decided edge owing to its offensive play-making capacity behind quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and lead rusher Zach Charbonnet against a Pitt team with more opt outs, including quarterback Kedon Slovis. ATS pick: UCLA -6
Gator Bowl: Notre Dame (-2.5) vs. South Carolina. The Gamecocks are 2-9-1 against the spread in their last dozen after an ATS win and should have Spencer Rattler in at quarterback. But the Irish won't have Drew Pyne (portal) at QB or star tight end Michael Mayer (NFL Draft). ATS pick: South Carolina +2.5
Arizona Bowl: Ohio (-1.5) vs. Wyoming. The Bobcats played for the AAC title and are 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 overall but 1-9 in their last 10 non-conference games, while Wyoming averaged just over 10 points in its last 3 games overall. ATS pick: Ohio -1.5
Music City Bowl: Iowa (-2) vs. Kentucky. No Will Levis or Chris Rodriguez for UK in this game going against a superb Hawkeye defense, but SEC teams tend to win these matchups against the Big Ten and Iowa just still can't move the ball very well. ATS pick: Kentucky +2
ReliaQuest Bowl: Mississippi State (-1) vs. Illinois. Tragedy surrounds this game after the sudden death of MSU coach Mike Leach, but the team is going ahead under new coach Zach Arnett. Illinois boasts college football's top scoring defense and No. 2 total D, but the Bulldogs have a brand of speed offensively that the Big Ten challengers haven't seen this year. ATS pick: Mississippi State -1
Citrus Bowl: LSU (-14.5) vs. Purdue. This line jumped 4 points in LSU's favor after most of Purdue's top offensive talent, including its quarterback and top two targets said they won't play in the game. LSU can rush the pass with a brand of physicality that the Boilermakers aren't accustomed to and Jayden Daniels is a dual threat piece at QB who can throw this defense out of position. ATS pick: LSU -14.5
New Year's Six Bowl Predictions Against the Spread
USA Today Images
Orange Bowl: Clemson (-4.5) vs. Tennessee. Cade Klubnik will find holes against the Vols' back seven in his first career start, but Tennessee should still be able to respond with backup Joe Milton under center and despite losing play-caller Alex Golesh and top receiver Jalin Hyatt, who is turning pro. His absence is enough to look the other way here. ATS pick: Clemson -4.5
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (-6.5) vs. Kansas State. Lack of motivation after missing the College Football Playoff and K-State playing with its full complement of starters who beat TCU in the Big 12 title game could make this closer than anticipated. But with Bryce Young and Will Anderson announcing that they'll play tilts things decisively in the Tide's favor. ATS pick: Alabama -6.5
Cotton Bowl: USC (-2) vs. Tulane. A ton of respect for the AAC champion Green Wave against a Trojan defense that really has the potential to lose any game it's in, but if Heisman winner Caleb Williams comes back from his hamstring injury, that should push the Men of Troy over easily enough. ATS pick: USC -2
Rose Bowl: Utah (-2) vs. Penn State. Not having lead back Tavion Thomas is a big loss for the Utes, but they should still be right in this game with Cameron Rising behind center coming off the Pac-12 title win over USC. But the Nittany Lions have been one of college football's more consistent teams lately, averaging more than 41 points per game the last month of the season. ATS pick: Penn State +2
We'll make our College Football Playoff predictions against the spread once the semifinal draws nearer on the schedule.
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | All Teams