TCU vs. Kansas State: Big 12 Championship Game pick, prediction
TCU looks to sew up what looks like a guaranteed berth in the College Football Playoff when it faces off against challenger Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game on Saturday.
Win or lose, it appears that TCU and first-year head coach Sonny Dykes should clinch one of the final four bids in the national semifinal, given the credentials the team has built up, finishing with an undefeated regular season record.
Kansas State once held a 28-10 lead on TCU in their first meeting this fall before a spirited comeback that kept the Horned Frogs perfect. Still, the Wildcats are a formidable foe, boasting the league's top scoring defense and a productive rushing offense that hits over 210 yards per game on average.
Here's what you can expect from the game this weekend.
TCU vs. Kansas State preview, prediction
TCU vs. Kansas State: Big 12 Championship Game prediction
How to watch, stream
When: Sat., Dec. 3
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ABC network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Odds, point spread, betting lines, trends
Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook and may change after publication
Point spread: TCU comes into the game as narrow 1.5 point favorites against Kansas State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.
Total: 61 points
Moneyline: TCU -125 | Kansas State +100
FPI prediction: TCU has the close 53.9 percent chance to win the game outright, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times. Kansas State has the competitive 46.1 percent shot to pull off the upset.
Picks: TCU vs. Kansas picks, predictions: Big 12 Championship Game odds, spread, lines
+ Kansas State is 4-1 against the spread in its last four games overall
+ TCU is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games after an ATS victory
+ The over is 4-0 in Kansas State's last four games after a straight up win
+ Horned Frogs are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 after a straight up win
TCU vs. Kansas State: What you need to know
1. TCU's "slow starts". It's been the headline that surrounded this Frogs team all season, and originally kept it out of the top four rankings. TCU has kept things close in the first half of many games this season, most notably in its previous meeting with Kansas State. A gifted group of skill targets was able to help bring this team back, especially after K-State suffered an injury-induced change at quarterback in that game.
2. K-State's 1-2-3 punch. Since coming into that first meeting, Will Howard has played well in place of starter Adrian Martinez for the Wildcats. Martinez was a running threat, whereas Howard helps spread defenses out more broadly by complementing the team's running ability with a consistent arm, going over 200 yards in four of five games and was four yards away from the milestone in the fifth, hitting on 13 TD passes with just two picks and the offense has eclipsed 40 points in three games.
Deuce Vaughn is one of college football's most electric playmakers, scoring 10 all-purpose touchdowns, going over 100 yards rushing in 7 games, and KSU is 0-3 in games where he was under a century. And watch for wide receiver Malik Knowles, a key outlet for Howard who has 679 yards and two scores receiving with three more as a runner.
3. Horned Frogs' skill threats. It's hard to believe that Max Duggan wasn't TCU's starting quarterback to begin the season, but he's certainly owned the job since then, pacing the Big 12 with over 3,000 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 3 picks with a career-best 67% completion mark. And he's working with a stellar supporting cast including leader Quentin Johnston (764 yards) and the likes of Derius Davis and Taye Barber, a group with solid hands and perimeter speed who can test K-State's back seven. Lead back Kendre Miller ran for 100-plus yards in 5 straight games and is 1st nationally with 6.76 yards per carry
Related: College football conference championship game picks, predictions
TCU vs. Kansas State: Fast Facts
+ TCU is 1st team since 1975 to win 7 straight games by 10 or fewer points
+ Kansas State is 1st in Big 12 allowing 19.4 points per game
+ TCU has 5 wins over ranked teams; Georgia and Michigan combine for 4
+ Wildcats have allowed 15 pts total in the 2nd half of their last 5 games
+ TCU is 1st nationally with 13 touchdowns of 50-plus yards
+ Kansas State is 1st in Big 12 scoring 40.2 points per game in its last 5 games
+ Horned Frogs are 2nd nationally with 17 plays of 50-plus yards and 10 plays of 60-plus yards
+ Wildcats are 2nd nationally with a plus-1.17 turnover margin per game
+ TCU is 4th nationally with 41.3 points per game
+ Kansas State is 9-1 when leading after the 1st quarter and 0-2 when trailing
TCU vs. Kansas State Prediction
Kansas State has more than a chance in this game. We saw what it could do against TCU in their first meeting, building up that 18-point lead, and the oddsmakers are certainly calling a close game, keeping the spread under a field goal.
The Wildcats have played inspired football, winning six games by more than 10 points, are tops in the Big 12 in scoring defense, second in rushing, and second in turnover margin, taking good care of the football.
Howard has the arm and the weapons to consistently shift TCU's pursuit group out of position, while the combined running efforts of Vaughn and the occasional appearance by Martinez could push the Wildcats to over 5 yards per carry. If that's the case, this could be a long day for the Horned Frogs.
Luckily, they have the equipment and the experience to withstand early (and late) deficits. The magic number here appears to be 160: when Kansas State allows more on the ground it's 1-3 and it's 8-0 when it allows less. TCU is posting almost 199 per game rushing.
College Football HQ prediction: TCU 34, Kansas State 27 | TCU covers the spread (TCU -1.5)
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