TCU vs. Kansas State picks, predictions: Big 12 Championship Game odds, spread, lines
TCU faces perhaps its biggest challenge yet to stay undefeated and move into College Football Playoff contention when it faces off against challenger Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game on Saturday.
One of three undefeated teams remaining in college football, the Horned Frogs have been the subject of some debate around the selection committee for their perceived slow starts and close games, but they have also passed every test up to now and have a chance to check off one of the most important things the playoff pickers want to see: a conference championship.
Standing in their way is Kansas State, which lost the head-to-head meeting in late October despite taking a 28-10 lead before the Horned Frogs' furious comeback bid, scoring 28 unanswered points. Now is the chance for the Wildcats to get revenge, and at the most opportune time, with a shot to dump TCU from the playoff.
What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.
TCU vs. Kansas State picks, predictions
TCU vs. Kansas State picks, predictions for Big 12 Championship Game
TCU's chance of victory: The computer is siding with the Horned Frogs to stay perfect, but projects a close game as they have a 53.9 percent chance to win the game outright.
Kansas State's chance of victory: The index gives K-State a 46.1 percent shot to pull off the upset and ruin TCU's playoff hopes and win the Big 12 title.
Point spread: Oddsmakers predict an even closer game, with TCU coming in the 1.5 point favorites against Kansas State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.
Total: 61 points
Moneyline: TCU -125 | Kansas State +100
Spread consensus pick: TCU -1.5
Score prediction: Team Rankings projects that TCU will defeat Kansas State by a score of 32.1 to 29.3 and win the Big 12 Championship.
Related: Game odds, betting lines for college football's Championship Week
TCU predictions: FPI put the Frogs at No. 10 on the index's 131 college football rankings, which slot teams based on a projected per-game scoring margin against average teams on a neutral field, with an 89.6 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 27.4 percent shot to make the national championship game.
Kansas State predictions: The index put K-State just behind TCU at No. 11 nationally, an estimated 15.6 points better than an average team. FPI ranked Texas as the best team in the Big 12 by this metric, 20.4 points better on a neutral field.
How to watch: The game is set for Sat., Dec. 3 at 11 a.m. Central on the main ABC network and streams on fuboTV (Try for free).
More: College football Championship Week schedule
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College Football Power Index
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.
College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings
According to CFP Selection Committee
- Georgia
- Michigan
- TCU
- USC
- Ohio State
- Alabama
- Tennessee
- Penn State
- Clemson
- Kansas State
- Utah
- Washington
- Florida State
- LSU
- Oregon State
- Oregon
- UCLA
- Tulane
- South Carolina
- Texas
- Notre Dame
- UCF
- North Carolina
- Mississippi State
- NC State
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | All Teams