ESPN computer predicts Big Ten rankings for 2022 college football season

Last season saw a Big Ten team make the College Football Playoff again as Michigan returned to national prominence and made the final four semifinal.

But the conference still hasn't won a national championship for almost a decade, when Ohio State won the first-ever playoff after the 2014 season.

Those two rivals will once again throw some elbows in the East Division race alongside contenders Michigan State and Penn State. While in the West, we should see Iowa and Wisconsin in the mix to earn division honors once again.

What can we expect from the Big Ten this season? Scroll through to see the latest rankings and record projections from the ESPN Football Power Index.

Big Ten football rankings, record predictions from ESPN

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings are a measure of team strength that means to predict a team’s performance. 

Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. It uses a combination of analytics, including scores to date and a team’s remaining schedule.

Let's see where each Big Ten team stands this season from worst to first.

14. Rutgers

Ranking: No. 83

Record prediction: 4-8

What to expect: It's a rough life for any team in the Big Ten East that isn't elite, especially Rutgers, which is 5-13 in conference games under Greg Schiano in the last two seasons. It played a CFP-bound Michigan team close a year ago and brings back quarterback Noah Vedral, but needs to get a lot more physical at the line of scrimmage. 

13. Northwestern

Ranking: No. 82

Record prediction: 4-8

What to expect: Pat Fitzgerald is a 55 percent winner at Northwestern and is .500 in bowl games, but coming off a three-win disaster that included one Big Ten victory. There are holes at safety and receiver after two high-profile transfers, and questions all over this roster after scoring just under 17 points per game last season.

12. Illinois

Ranking: No. 73

Record prediction: 5-7

What to expect: The first year of the Bret Bielema regime didn't quite go according to plan as the coach's return to the Big Ten resulted in a 5-7 record and no bowl game. This was an average defense, improved from the year before, allowing 20 or fewer points in seven games, but needs to get after the quarterback better while Bielema develops what could be a very solid rushing attack that includes 1,000-yard back Chase Brown.

11. Indiana

Ranking: No. 66

Record prediction: 4-8

What to expect: IU was good for just 17 points per game last fall and will lose wide receiver Ty Fryfogle. But it gains Missouri transfer quarterback Conner Bazelak, a 2,500-yard passer, something for first-year coordinator Walt Bell to work with. Indiana put up under 11 ppg in Big Ten games and allowed over 35, not a formula for success.

10. Purdue

Ranking: No. 44

Record prediction: 7-5

What to expect: Purdue is coming off its best year under coach Jeff Brohm, who signed a contract extension this offseason. The Boilers finished 9-4 and beat Tennessee in a bowl game. Brohm is 28-29 at the school and 2-1 in bowl games. 

He loses two key game-changers in edge rusher George Karlaftis and receiver David Bell and brings back the sole Big Ten rushing attack that failed to average 100 yards per game. But Aidan O'Connell is back under center as a 72 percent passer who didn't have a turnover in seven games last fall.

9. Maryland

Ranking: No. 43

Record prediction: 6-6

What to expect: Maryland should put up some good numbers along the way after posting the fourth-best offense in the Big Ten a year ago, good for over 440 yards per game and scored a shade under 30 points each week. 

Taulia Tagovailoa enters his fourth year with the Terps, coming off a 3,860-yard season with 26 TDs and 11 picks, and he just got transfer wideout Jacob Copeland, who led Florida with 642 yards and four scores last fall. Expect some slipshod defense again, though, after this team placed second-worst in the league allowing almost 33 points per game.

8. Minnesota

Ranking: No. 40

Record prediction: 8-4

What to expect: This was still a nine-win team last season despite not having lead back Mohamed Ibrahim on the field. Now, he comes back into the fold healed from that injury alongside veteran quarterback Tanner Morgan, and offensive play-caller Kirk Ciarrocca is back, too. If the Gophers can patch up their protection up front, they can get some solid returns out of their skill players, who boast some deceptive speed on the perimeters.

7. Iowa

Ranking: No. 38

Record prediction: 7-5

What to expect: Iowa often has the defense to take it places — like last season when the Hawkeyes were in the top 5 of the AP poll and seemingly destined for the College Football Playoff — but patching together a consistently threatening downfield offense still evades this team. 

Spencer Petras returns as the likely starter, but needs to find some answers after he completed just 57.3% of his passes with 1,880 passing yards with 10 touchdowns against nine interceptions a year ago. Petras is 13-6 as Iowa's starting quarterback and helped put this team in the Big Ten title game, but also didn't score in six games.

6. Nebraska

Ranking: No. 35

Record prediction: 7-5

What to expect: It's been four long years at Nebraska under Scott Frost, who hasn't won more than five games in a season and is coming a nine-loss disaster in which his team lost every game by single digits. 

That was enough to buy him one more year in Lincoln, but he's working on a short leash. Hence all the major changes Frost has already made, like bringing on Pitt offensive coordinator Mark Whipple and landing Texas transfer quarterback Casey Thompson, who led the Big 12 in scoring last year, and former TCU defensive lineman Ochaun Mathis, among others. It's now or never for Nebraska, who need to see tangible gains, or else.

5. Wisconsin

USA Today Images

Ranking: No. 21

Record prediction: 8-4

What to expect: Georgia got all the pub, but Wisconsin was actually the No. 1 total defense in college football a year ago. And while a lot of that group is gone, head coach Paul Chryst and company have recruited well enough to have a stock of replacements on standby. 

Now, the Badgers just need to get a ton more out of quarterback Graham Mertz after a sub-2,000 yard season with 10 scores and 11 turnovers. Expect a lot of old school Big Ten football from this team with lead back Braelon Allen — a 1,200 yard rusher with 12 TDs — carrying the load behind a very strong line.

4. Michigan State

Ranking: No. 16

Record prediction: 8-4

What to expect: Kenneth Walker was the engine behind Sparty's offensive success a  year ago, but the power back is gone. He leaves behind quarterback Payton Thorne, a 3,240-yard passer with 27 TDs and lead receiver Jayden Reed, who went over 1,000 yards and scored 10 times with a nearly 18 ypc average.

MSU made huge gains in Mel Tucker's second year, winning 11 games with three Ws against ranked teams, including Michigan and ACC champ Pitt in the bowl. That was enough to give Tucker $95 million, but he won't have earned that pile until he takes a sledgehammer to one of the worst secondary units in college football.

3. Penn State

Ranking: No. 12

Record prediction: 8-4

What to expect: Experience at quarterback is always a plus, and that's what Penn State gets with Sean Clifford coming back. He's a solid foundation to build out from after posting a 3,000-yard passing season with 21 touchdowns a year ago. But the Nittany Lions' ground game lost a key piece when running back Noah Cain transferred to LSU. 

PSU placed third in the Big Ten in points allowed in 2021, but has to plug in some new pieces to maintain that production after losing three games against top 15 conference opponents and getting housed by two scores by Arkansas in the bowl.

2. Michigan

Ranking: No. 7

Record prediction: 10-2

What to expect: FPI gives Michigan a nearly 10 percent chance to take the Big Ten East and is a shade under 15 percent to get back to the College Football Playoff. To get there, the Wolverines will have to find replacements for what last season were some of the best edge rushers, blockers, and ball carriers in the nation.

But there's a lot to work with, too. Cade McNamara returns at quarterback and he has one of college football's best backups in J.J. McCarthy. Blake Corum will lead the ground attack after running for almost 1,000 yards last fall with 11 touchdowns. UM might take a step back owing to the changeover, but this team is still well in position to win 10 games and make a run for the Big Ten.

1. Ohio State

USA Today Images

Record prediction: 12-0

Ranking: No. 2

What to expect: Once again, the Buckeyes come into the preseason as the consensus favorites to win the Big Ten and make the College Football Playoff. As they were last year before an early loss to Oregon and a late L against rival Michigan. 

The common denominator in those games was subpar defense, which Ryan Day thinks he fixed by bringing on former Oklahoma State DC Jim Knowles. Under his watch last fall, the Cowboys posted the No. 3 overall D and led the nation in TFLs and sacks.

If he can repeat that success with these players, expect Ohio State's reigning No. 1 ranked offense to do the rest. Heisman finalist quarterback CJ Stroud returns after posting a 4,435 yard outing with 44 TDs and six turnovers. 

TreVeyon Henderson is back after rumbling for 1,248 yards with a nearly 7 ypc average and 15 scores as OSU's lead back, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is coming off a 1,600 yard receiving campaign as the presumptive No. 1 in a room full of blue-chip receivers.

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