College football rankings: ESPN updates top 25 poll for Week 7
College football rankings: ESPN updates top 25 poll for Week 7
ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.
This isn't a conventional "power ranking" of the best teams, but a projection of how every team would finish against an average opponent on a neutral field, ranked by expected point margin per game.
A look at the ESPN top 25 college football rankings
25. Kansas State (5-1). A very close win over Iowa State keeps the Wildcats in this top 25 for this week, but the power index doesn't expect much more from this team going forward. Win projection: 7.7
24. Wake Forest (5-1). A nice, clean rout over Army on Saturday is enough to keep the Deacons around the rankings, including a jump of 9 spots in this poll back into the top 25. Win projection: 8.8
23. Texas A&M (3-3). Actually the biggest mover on the FPI poll this week after coming 2 yards and 4 points away from knocking off Alabama again. Win projection: 6.6
22. Purdue (4-2). The Boilers held off a spirited Maryland offense to pick up the 3-point win and stay in the wide open Big Ten West race. Win projection: 8.3
21. UCF (4-1). A 7-point jump in these rankings after a statement win over SMU at home by scoring 31 unanswered points. Win projection: 9.7
20. Maryland (4-2). The team that lost to Purdue gets the better ranking, owing to the index predicting Maryland has a better per-game scoring margin going forward, 11.1 compared to Purdue's 9.7. Win projection: 7.6
19. Minnesota (4-1). A drop of 5 points despite being idle and coming off that loss to Purdue, but still almost 2 TDs better than its opponents going forward, according to the FPI metric. Win projection: 9.0
18. TCU (5-0). A statement win at Kansas and college football's No. 2 offense wasn't enough to fall 5 spots, owing to the computer's belief that TCU will beat teams by just 12.9 points per game. Win projection: 9.1
17. Oklahoma State (5-0). Still perfect, the Cowboys appear to be in the driver's seat in the Big 12, but a major tilt with TCU is coming up. Win projection: 9.2
16. Baylor (3-2). FPI is keeping Baylor ahead of the team that beat it, owing to its better per-game scoring margin projection, but the Bears are losing their grip on a meaningful season. Win projection: 7.2
15. Notre Dame (3-2). The unranked Irish picked up a statement win over ranked BYU to move over .500 and are projected to be about 2 TDs better than the teams on its schedule. Win projection: 8.0
14. Oregon (5-1). Bo Nix has thrown 12 TDs and 1 pick since the Georgia game and put the Ducks into Pac-12 contention. Win projection: 9.6
13. Mississippi State (5-1). After the LSU loss, the Bulldogs have won 3 straight, including 2 in the SEC West in impressive fashion behind Will Rogers, the new SEC record-holder in completions. Win projection: 8.1
12. Penn State (5-0). Idle this week, the Nittany Lions are riding a solid defense and a powerful run game heading into a major tilt at Michigan to help shape the Big Ten East race. Win projection: 9.3
11. LSU (4-2). Another curious placement by FPI for the Tigers, who laid down against Tennessee, but still have a plus-14.2 point per game estimation going forward. Win projection: 7.4
10. USC (6-0). Still perfect are the Trojans, but these conference games are getting closer heading into the anticipated matchup at Utah this weekend. Win projection: 10.9
9. Utah (4-2). The defending Pac-12 champs are in a hole after losing their second game, but the index is keeping them in the top 10 owing to its generous plus-16.4 point per game prediction. Win projection: 9.7
8. Ole Miss (6-0). A slow start at Vanderbilt, but the Rebs leaned on career days from Jaxson Dart and Jonathan Mingo to pull through and stay perfect, and in the thick of the SEC West. Win projection: 9.7
7. Tennessee (5-0). Another breakout game for the Vols offense in a rout at LSU and now comes by far the team's best shot to take down Alabama next week, something UT hasn't done in the Saban era. Win projection: 10.1
6. Clemson (6-0). It was close early at BC, but DJ Uiagalelei put out another superb second half performance to keep Clemson in the ACC and College Football Playoff chase. Win projection: 11.7
5. Michigan (6-0). Indiana played the Wolverines close in the first half before college football's 6th ranked scoring offense woke up, but these games have been much closer since the Big Ten schedule kicked off. Win projection: 10.8
4. Texas (4-2). A statement 49-0 humiliation over the Sooners behind the return of quarterback prodigy Quinn Ewers, and suddenly the Longhorns look like a different team. But a top four team? Win projection: 9.3
3. Georgia (6-0). Another pounding in the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry, discarding Auburn in the second half, but Georgia is inching closer to judgement day with a game against the Vols in 3 weeks that could decide the SEC East. Win projection: 11.7
2. Ohio State (6-0). As expected, the Buckeye blitzkrieg thrashed Sparty's bewildered secondary heading into the idle week. Good luck to any Big Ten team trying to match OSU's speed. Win projection: 12.0
1. Alabama (6-0). Here's hoping the Tide gets Bryce Young back soon, because without him, this offense lost four turnovers to A&M, which came 2 yards away from knocking off the No. 1 team for a second straight year. Win projection: 11.6