College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 ahead of Week 2 games
Week 1 is in the books and now it's time to get our first look at the updated top 25 college football rankings from ESPN ahead of Week 2.
ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.
College football rankings: ESPN updates top 25 for Week 2
25. Pittsburgh
Rankings change: Minus-6
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.6%
Where Pittsburgh is now: Coming off winning its season opener against rival West Virginia behind an inspired performance from quarterback Kedon Slovis in the first step in defending its ACC championship. Slovis connected with Israel Abanikanda on the tying score and M.J. Devonshire picked off a deflected JT Daniels pass and scored the game-winner in dramatic fashion.
24. Florida
Rankings change: Was unranked
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.1%
Where Florida is now: Coming off a statement upset over No. 7 Utah, a feather in the cap for 1st year coach Billy Napier, and especially for quarterback Anthony Richardson, who looks like college football's next big star after going 17 of 24 for 168 yards and rushing for 106 yards and a score, all without a turnover.
23. SMU
Rankings change: Was unranked
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 1.1%
Where SMU is now: This looks like the premier offense in the AAC after Tanner Mordecai threw for 432 yards and four TDs in the Mustangs' 48-10 rout over North Texas while piling up 576 total yards.
22. Oklahoma State
Rankings change: Minus-8
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.9%
Where Oklahoma State is now: Wishing it had Jim Knowles calling this defense again after the Cowboys' new look D allowed 44 points to Central Michigan and lost the yardage battle 546 to 531. OSU led the Chippewas 51-15 less than a minute into the third quarter before the near-collapse.
21. Texas A&M
Rankings change: Minus-9
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.2%
Where Texas A&M is now: Quite the fall for the Aggies, according to the index, after what on the scoreboard looked like an adequate beatdown over Sam Houston in the opener. But there are some questions about whether Haynes King has a full grasp of this offense and a genuine concern over A&M's ability to run the ball after running for 110 yards and didn't have a single rusher over 45 yards.
20. Kentucky
Rankings change: Minus-2
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.35%
Where Kentucky is now: Will Levis left some points on the field in the first half against Miami (OH) after a mistimed pass for Izayah Cummings and a pick at the goal line, but the Wildcats were able to recover from a very close game early and pulled away by outscoring the RedHawks 24-3 after the break.
19. Utah
Rankings change: Minus-6
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.8%
Where Utah is now: Licking its wounds after a physical game in the very humid Swamp against Florida and likely mourning the loss of its CFP chances following the close loss to the Gators. Utah was in position to win the game late, but Cam Rising uncharacteristically threw a pick in the end zone to start the Utes off 0-1.
18. Wisconsin
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Rankings change: Plus-2
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 1.3%
Where Wisconsin is now: A nice enough 38-0 rout over Illinois State to start things off, and a 100 yard pick-6 from John Torchio to kick off the game. Braelon Allen followed with a 96 yard TD run and another from 1 yard out as the Badgers racked up 440 total yards, 221 of them on the ground.
17. Ole Miss
Rankings change: N/A
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.6%
Where Ole Miss is now: The Rebels new look offense started off well, building up a 21-0 lead with three rushing scores and Jaxson Dart passed for another in the third, but Troy still racked up 346 yards and forced 3 takeaways from Ole Miss, who didn't score in the fourth quarter.
16. Penn State
Rankings change: N/A
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 2.0%
Where Penn State is now: Sean Clifford threw an ugly pick six against Purdue that seemed to lose the game, but he led a furious comeback with time running out, connecting with Keyvone Lee on a 10 yard TD pass with 57 seconds left after coming back from a right leg injury.
15. Michigan State
Rankings change: N/A
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 1.4%
Where Michigan State is now: Payton Thorne led three impressive scoring drives capped off by his TD throws early in the game, but there were long spurts of inactivity when the Spartans couldn't maintain that momentum, though Thorne did come back with a 4th quarter TD pass to pull away.
14. USC
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Rankings change: Was unranked
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 5.5%
Where USC is now: Some good returns from that vaunted Trojans offense as Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison connected on a pair of TD passes, but it was this defense, so maligned in the offseason, that really came alive, recording three pick-sixes to pile on the points in a 66-14 victory over Rice.
13. Mississippi State
Rankings change: Plus-10
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 1.3%
Where Mississippi State is now: A surprise jump for the Bulldogs, but the ESPN rankings are always good for a surprise or two. Will Rogers was predictably productive, passing for five TDs and a pick while leading the offense for 542 total yards going 38 of 49 passing, but it was sloppy fourth quarter.
12. LSU
Rankings change: Minus-2
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 1.7%
Where LSU is now: Another odd placement for the ESPN computers, which kept the Tigers in the top 10 all during the preseason. Sunday night's opener against Florida State left a lot to be desired, especially on the offensive line, and Brian Kelly started an ugly 0-1 after a dramatic loss in the last second.
11. Oklahoma
Rankings change: Minus-3
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 6.0%
Where Oklahoma is now: A predictably solid offensive showing as Dillon Gabriel helped create a 21-0 lead and racked up over 300 yards before halftime. Eric Gray rushed for over 100 yards while Brayden Willis caught two TD passes and Marcus Major rushed for two more.
10. Tennessee
Rankings change: Plus-14
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 2.9%
Where Tennessee is now: Expect to see the Vols putting some serious points all year after Hendon Hooker proved again why he's one of the SEC's best returning players. Hooker accounted for 2 TDs passing and 2 more rushing, throwing to 8 different receivers in the first half and was over 200 yards passing in the first half in the 59-10 win over Ball State. UT isn't a top 10 team in the AP polls, but FPI projects 8 wins from this team.
9. Miami
Rankings change: N/A
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 10.1%
Where Miami is now: Quite the first impression for Mario Cristobal, whose offense racked up almost 600 yards and 31 first downs while piling on over 300 yards on the ground with 7 rushing scores and a pick-six on defense. A good foundation to build from with a road game at Texas A&M coming in two weeks.
8. Baylor
Rankings change: Plus-13
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 9.6%
Where Baylor is now: Blake Shapen went 17 of 20 passing with 214 yards and 2 long early TD throws as Baylor throttled FCS opponent Albany by a 69-10 score. The Bears scored four touchdowns in the final 17 minutes after their starters were sitting on the bench. Expect Baylor to stay in the top 10 of the AP poll, but there's a road trip to BYU next week.
7. Texas
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Rankings change: N/A
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 11.3%
Where Texas is now: The debut of Quinn Ewers went about as well as you'd expect, as he finished with 225 yards passing and two touchdowns in the 52-10 win over UL Monroe, but a lot of his production came when his receivers got yards after the catch, and his 2nd pass was intercepted. Up next is a home tilt with Alabama.
6. Notre Dame
Rankings change: Minus-1
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 18.2%
Where Notre Dame is now: The Irish defense did an admirable job of holding back Ohio State's top-ranked offense in the opener, but ultimately couldn't hold back the Buckeyes' two late TD drives. Tyler Buchner looked solid early, taking a lead in the first half, but was thrown off schedule by OSU's front 7 over the rest of the game.
5. Michigan
Rankings change: Plus-1
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 24.8%
Where Michigan is now: Cade McNamara didn't sound happy that Jim Harbaugh went to J.J. McCarthy in the second half of the game, but McCarthy did look better, rushing for a 20 yard TD on his 3rd snap while Cade went 9 of 18 passing for under 140 yards passing.
4. Clemson
Rankings change: N/A
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 55.9%
Where Clemson is now: There were some more offensive struggles early against Georgia Tech, but DJ Uiagalelei settled in, passing for over 200 yards and Will Shipley rushed for 2 TDs in the 41-10 rout. Plus we got a glimpse of the future as 5-star Cade Klubnik stepped in at quarterback late. And to very positive reviews, something to keep in mind should DJ slip going forward.
3. Ohio State
Rankings change: Minus-1
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 81.1%
Where Ohio State is now: Not having Jaxon Smith-Njigba on the field because of injury didn't help this offense, which didn't look its usual self, but Ryan Day was happy to see his team pull out the "ugly" victory over Notre Dame, especially as it recovered to score two TDs late in the matchup, including a hard-earned 90-plus yard drive, mostly on the ground.
2. Georgia
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Rankings change: Plus-1
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 77.0%
Where Georgia is now: It doesn't look like the defending national champions missed a beat this offseason. Stetson Bennett looks better, if anything, leading 7 straight TD drives on his first 7 possessions. Most analysts expected Oregon would put up a fight, but only came away with 3 points against a Dawgs D that looks as good as last season.
1. Alabama
Rankings change: N/A
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 83.8%
Where Alabama is now: Right where it was a year ago. Bryce Young became the 2nd Alabama player to score six of more TDs in a game, throwing 5 in the first half and rushing for the other while adding 100 yards on the ground, a career high. Jermaine Burton caught 2 TDs while Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 93 yards with a 10.3 ypc average.