ESPN computer predicts Pac-12 rankings for 2022 college football season

It's been a while since the Pac-12 has left its footprint on the national college football scene. The conference has made the playoff just twice and hasn't won a national championship since USC in 2004.

But some major coaching moves and roster additions could help this conference get back into the thick of things for the 2022 football season.

Not least the addition of head coach Lincoln Riley at USC, a bombshell move that could finally tilt the scales back in the Trojans' favor out west and nationally.

Oregon brought on Dan Lanning as head coach, Kalen DeBoer steps in at Washington, and Utah is defending conference champs with the tools to do it again.

What can we expect from the Pac-12 this season? Scroll through to see the latest rankings and record predictions from the ESPN football index.

Pac-12 football record predictions, according to ESPN

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings are a measure of team strength that means to predict a team’s performance. 

Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. It uses a combination of analytics, including scores to date and a team’s remaining schedule.

Let's see where each Pac-12 team stands this season from worst to first.

12. Arizona

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Ranking: No. 89

Record prediction: 4-8

What to expect: This is still a program in full rebuild mode despite second-year coach Jedd Fisch making some notable improvements on the roster this offseason. Arizona signed a very solid recruiting class, including 5-star receiver Tetairoa McMillan, and the Wildcats signed on transfer quarterback Jacob de Laura, too. FPI gives Arizona a 0.1 percent chance to win the division this fall. But an early season home tilt with Mississippi State can be a statement for this program.

11. Colorado

Preseason ranking: No. 86

Record prediction: 3-9

What to expect: The Buffs bring some needed experience to this transfer-impacted offense with the return of quarterback Brendon Lewis this season. That helps, but Lewis needs to beef up his numbers after a 1,540 yard, 10 TD outing last fall. He was solid when it came to ball security, throwing just three picks, but overall this offense mustered just under 19 points per game.

10. Washington State

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Preseason ranking: No. 79

Record prediction: 5-7

What to expect: Wazzu comes into the preseason as a top 80 team nationally according to the FPI prediction wizards, thanks to one major transfer. Cameron Ward comes over to the Cougars this season from Incarnate Word after throwing 47 touchdowns a year ago, plus he brings over his offensive coordinator, too. This team can put the ball in the air, but can it stop anybody on a consistent basis?

9. California

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Preseason ranking: No. 70

Record prediction: 6-6

What to expect: Cal has played some decent defense over the last several years, ranking fourth overall in the conference, third in scoring, and tops in yards per play allowed. But the Golden Bears went a paltry 1-5 on the road last fall behind an inconsistent offensive attack. Watch how this team replenishes at quarterback and receiver. Make the right moves there, and Cal can emerge as a surprise bowl team.

8. Stanford

Preseason ranking: No. 61

Record prediction: 5-7

What to expect: It's been a precipitous fall from grace for the Cardinal since the days when Andrew Luck and Christian McCaffrey were on The Farm, last season going 3-9 and losing its last seven in a row. This can still be a physical team — one that beat No. 3 Oregon a year ago — but needs better offensive output. Tanner McKee returns at quarterback after throwing 15 TDs last season, and Stanford went 3-2 in games he didn't have a turnover.

7. Oregon State

Preseason ranking: No. 57

Record prediction: 6-6

What to expect: By the looks of these projections, a very average team. OSU can throw a few upsets into the schedule if it wants, bringing back signal caller Chance Nolan, a respectable 2,600-yard passer in 2021 with 19 touchdowns and 10 picks. Oregon State ranked top five in the Pac-12 in rushing, total offense, and scoring offense, and should return the bulk of that production, including a deep and talented backfield. 

And the Beavers have a new identity on defense under first-year coach Trent Bray, who brings back a solid edge rushing combo and depth in the secondary. But this D has to improve on third down: it placed No. 122 in college football a year ago, allowing opponents to convert 55.3 percent of the time.

6. Washington

Preseason ranking: No. 50

Record prediction: 7-5

What to expect: The Jimmy Lake experience came to a sudden, awkward end after just 13 games, but the Huskies appear to have landed on their feet finding his replacement. Kalen DeBoer arrives at UW from Fresno State with a reputation for building productive offenses — and playing well against Pac-12 teams, beating a ranked UCLA on the road and playing Oregon to a 7-point loss last season.

5. Arizona State

Preseason ranking: No. 41

Record prediction: 8-4

What to expect: A lot of new faces at important positions after the Devils saw a ton of talent transfer out, including starting quarterback Jayden Daniels. Emory Jones steps in from Florida under center, but he won't have top receiver Ricky Pearsall after he also transferred, as did All-American linebacker Eric Gentry. This was the Pac-12's fourth-best defense last season, when ASU went 8-5, but has a projected three returning starters and a secondary that will need to be built almost from scratch.

4. USC

Preseason ranking: No. 37

Record prediction: 8-4

What to expect: The men of Troy might need a year under Lincoln Riley to get the kind of results it expects, with FPI setting this team at about eight wins this fall and sitting outside the top 25 in its national football rankings. 

That's good for a 9 percent shot at winning the Pac-12, but is still at zero percent to make the College Football Playoff. Expect a vastly-improved offense with Caleb Williams working under center with some plus speed on the outside, including Biletnikoff receiver Jordan Addison, but USC has some surgery to do defensively, inheriting a unit that ranked 89th nationally last season.

3. UCLA

Preseason ranking: No. 34

Record prediction: 9-3

What to expect: Two of the Pac-12's top offensive playmakers return for the Bruins in quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and lead back Zach Charbonnet. DTR dished out 21 touchdowns with six INTs a year ago, and Charbonnet scored 13 times off more than 1,100 yards rushing. 

FPI gives UCLA about a 9 percent shot to win the Pac-12, third-best in the league behind Oregon and Utah, but it needs better defensive outings after surrendering over 40 points in games against Utah, ASU, and Fresno State, all losses.

2. Oregon

Preseason ranking: No. 23

Record prediction: 9-3

What to expect: Mario Cristobal is out after helping turn Oregon into a national recruiting destination, but the Ducks landed a promising replacement. Dan Lanning orchestrated Georgia's ferocious national title defense last season and arrives in Eugene with a mandate to make Oregon's unit in its image. 

He has some solid pieces to work with on that front, including star linebacker Noah Sewell, but needs to make the right decision at quarterback in order to exploit the speed and skill this team has at receiver. Oregon checks in at No. 23 in the national ESPN preseason poll, one of two Pac-12 teams to crack the top 25.

1. Utah

Preseason ranking: No. 15

Record prediction: 9-3

What to expect: The defending Pac-12 champs check in at No. 15 in the FPI preseason rankings, boast a 33.3% shot to repeat in this league, and have the best chance to make the College Football Playoff out of the West, at 4.9 percent. A pretty low number that reveals what predictors still think of this conference.

Utah plays a physical brand of football, and returns both its starting quarterback and running back after a 2021 in which it beat three ranked teams (Oregon being two of them) and played Ohio State to a 3-point loss in the Rose Bowl. 

Cameron Rising and Tavion Thomas are a very solid 1-2 punch on offense, but the Utes have some surgery to perform on a defense that needs inputs in the secondary and behind the line after losing backer Devin Lloyd. Watch for a Week 1 trip to Florida with Pac-12 honor on the line, and a midseason home tilt with USC.

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