Alabama vs. Mississippi State odds, spread, lines: Week 8 college football picks, predictions by computer model
Two SEC West rivals come in off costly losses looking to get back in the win column as Alabama hosts Mississippi State in college football's Week 8 action on Saturday.
Alabama racked up 49 points on Rocky Top, but it wasn't enough to take down Tennessee and its nation-leading offense. Now at 6-1 on the year, the Crimson Tide are neck and neck with Ole Miss in the SEC West title chase.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs put an abrupt end to their former three-game win streak, in which they scored over 40 points each time out, by dropping a 27-17 decision to Kentucky, running for all of 22 yards in the process.
What do the experts think of this matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.
Alabama vs. Mississippi State picks, predictions
Week 8 college football picks: Mississippi State at Alabama
The computers are siding heavily with the home team, as Alabama has the comfortable 90.8 percent chance to defeat Mississippi State on Saturday.
That leaves the Bulldogs and their vaunted Air Raid just a 9.2 percent shot to take down the Tide on the road and stay above .500 in SEC games.
The oddsmakers also predict an easy victory for Alabama, which comes into the game as 21 point favorites, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the over/under mark at 62 points for the matchup.
Despite last weekend's loss, the index still rates Alabama as the No. 2 team in its national 131 college football rankings coming into this Saturday's game.
FPI rates teams by a projected per-game scoring margin, and estimates that Alabama is 28.5 points better than an average team on a neutral field, the second-highest mark in the nation, hence its ranking there.
AP top 25 voters were less kind, dropping the Tide three more spots to No. 6 overall after losing to Tennessee, looking up at ACC favorite Clemson (No. 5) and Big Ten contender Michigan (No. 4).
Mississippi State owns the No. 16 position on the computer's rankings, projecting it will win 7.4 games on the season. It suffered the biggest drop in this week's AP poll, 8 spots, to No. 24 overall.
College Football Power Index
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Michigan
- Clemson
- Alabama
- Ole Miss
- TCU
- UCLA
- Oregon
- Oklahoma State
- USC
- Wake Forest
- Syracuse
- Utah
- Penn State
- Kansas State
- Illinois
- Kentucky
- Texas
- Cincinnati
- North Carolina
- NC State
- Mississippi State
- Tulane