Arkansas vs. Cincinnati college football Week 1 preview, prediction
Arkansas and Cincinnati kick off the 2022 college football schedule in a prove-it game for both programs at a crucial moment.
Sam Pittman wants to prove the Razorbacks' success in 2021 is the rule and not the exception, while Luke Fickell hopes to show that the Bearcats have the talent to stay in the College Football Playoff chase year-in, year-out.
Here's what you need to know about the Week 1 opener from Fayetteville.
Arkansas vs. Cincinnati football preview, prediction
Arkansas opens the 2022 college football schedule against Cincinnati
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How to watch
When: Sat., Sept. 3
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV
Cincinnati vs. Arkansas odds, lines, spread
Line: Arkansas -6.5
O/U: 52.5
Moneyline: CIN +196 ARK -240
FPI pick: Arkansas 59.6%
Arkansas vs. Cincinnati: What to watch
1. What Cincinnati brings back. A lot is made, and should be, about those nine key players who went to the NFL Draft after the playoff run. But don't overlook what UC brings back, either: all 5 O-line starters, 3 senior D-linemen, and a pair of 3-year starters at defensive back. Not to mention tight end Josh Whyle, who has 12 career TD catches, a valuable security blanket for Cincy's new quarterback, probably Ben Bryant.
2. Hogs ground and pound. Arkansas was one of 2 FBS teams to have 4 500-yard rushers last year and finished as the top rushing team in the Power 5 and 7th nationally. Dominique Johnson led the way with 5.9 ypc, but is questionable after a knee injury, so Raheim Sanders should take over after scoring 5 times in 13 games and becoming the first Arkansas frosh to rush for 100-plus yards in a game since 2017. Combined with quarterback KJ Jefferson, who led the team rushing in '21, this backfield should impress again, especially behind a line that returns four veterans with a combined 124 games and 99 starts.
3. Arkansas' receivers. Treylon Burks is gone, and that definitely hurts. But Jefferson has other intriguing options moving downfield, too: watch how 5-star transfer Jadon Hazelwood, who led Oklahoma in catches and TDs a year ago and boasts 7 TD catches in 28 games. Transfer Matt Landers has 37 games' experience and scored 5 times last fall. Two very good options to pair with Trey Knox and Warren Thompson to help spread things out, balance this attack, and test UC's center field defensive alignment.
Cincinnati vs. Arkansas: Fast Facts
+ KJ Jefferson was 1 of 2 quarterbacks to lead his team in passing and rushing a year ago
+ Cincy is 5-0 in openers under Luke Fickell and won its last 11 overall, but hasn't opened against a top 25 team on the road since 2004
+ Arkansas was 1st in the SEC in rushing with 227.8 ypg a year ago
+ Cincinnati has won 8 straight away games, last losing in 2019 to Memphis
+ Arkansas was 1 of 2 teams with four rushers with 500-plus yards and ranked 7th nationally in total rushing offense
+ UC ranked 1st in pass efficiency defense, 2nd in pass yards allowed, and 3rd in INTs last season
+ Arkansas is 11-2 under Sam Pittman when leading after 3 quarters and is 0-8 when trailing after 3
+ Cincinnati finished in the top 10 in turnovers gained for 3 straight years
+ Jefferson was 1 of 5 FBS quarterbacks who had 20-plus TDs and 4 or fewer interceptions
+ Cincinnati has won 86.3% of its games since 2018
+ Arkansas is 7-0 under Pittman when winning the turnover battle and 0-3 when losing it
+ UC has allowed 17.9 points per game since 2018, the 4th fewest
+ Arkansas has 26 INTs since 2020, 2nd in the SEC behind Alabama (27)
+ The Razorbacks have scored 30-plus points in 9 of Jefferson's 15 starts
What happens? Final prediction, pick
We saw how Cincinnati at its most talented and with the most momentum possible fared against the SEC's best in a 27-6 loss to Alabama in the College Football Playoff semifinal. Now that team has lost its most important pieces.
But don't underestimate what the Bearcats still have, especially on the offensive line, which should give their new passing attack enough time to settle in and find its identity.
Still, the Razorbacks return the core of a stout ground attack and the pieces up front to dictate the pace of the game.
Cincinnati's defensive unit played well in the red zone and placed 3rd nationally in takeaways and goes against a Hogs attack that led the SEC with the fewest turnovers.
Don't expect anything flashy, but Arkansas has the tools and the continuity to secure the close, hard-won victory.
College Football HQ prediction: Arkansas 34, Cincinnati 26
College football rankings
According to AP Top 25 poll
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Clemson
- Notre Dame
- Texas A&M
- Utah
- Michigan
- Oklahoma
- Baylor
- Oregon
- Oklahoma State
- NC State
- USC
- Michigan State
- Miami
- Pittsburgh
- Wisconsin
- Arkansas
- Kentucky
- Ole Miss
- Wake Forest
- Cincinnati
- Houston
- BYU