Georgia vs. Tennessee preview, prediction: Who wins, and why?
Georgia and Tennessee square off in a battle of (AP) 1 vs. 2 teams on Saturday.
Everything appears to be on the line for both teams. The winner remains undefeated and with a critical head-to-head tie-breaker in the SEC East title chase and a virtual lock on a berth in the conference championship game.
And from there, it would seem, a line on making the College Football Playoff.
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The loser gets the opposite: falling to an outside position, having no margin for error the rest of the way, and hoping for some confusion at the top of the rankings in order to contend for one of the final playoff positions.
Here's what you need to know about Saturday's matchup.
Georgia vs. Tennessee preview, prediction
Week 10 college football predictions: Georgia vs. Tennessee
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How to watch
When: Sat., Nov. 5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET, 2:30 p.m. CT
TV: CBS network
Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Point spread: Georgia comes into the game as the 8.5 point favorite to defeat Tennessee, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.
Over/under: The book set the O/U at 66 points for the matchup.
Moneyline: Tennessee +220, Georgia -333
FPI prediction: Football Power Index gives Georgia the 74.9 percent chance to defeat Tennessee, which in turn has the 25.1 percent shot to beat the Bulldogs, according to the computer which simulates teams' seasons 20,000 times to predict outcomes.
Related: Georgia vs. Tennessee picks, predictions: Week 10 college football odds, spread, lines
Georgia vs. Tennessee: What you need to know
What to watch as Georgia hosts Tennessee
1. UT can't stop the pass, or can they? Looking at the raw numbers, you would think that Tennessee was one of the worst pass defenses in college football. On the books, it's just 127th nationally by allowing 300.8 passing yards per game. But take a deeper look and the Vols are a more respectable 50th allowing 6.9 passing yards per attempt and is a much better 28th surrendering just 11.1 yards per completion. On a per pass basis, Tennessee is pretty decent when the ball is in the air, and just shut down Will Levis, holding the UK passer to under 100 yards, no TDs, and three picks. Stifle Georgia's intermediate air game early, limit gains after the catch, and subdue the crowd, and this can get interesting.
2. No Nolan. As much as being affected by any player on the field, this game could in part come down to who isn't on it. In this case, it's Georgia edge rusher Nolan Smith, who is out for the season after tearing his pectoral muscle. Georgia has 10 sacks on the season, and three of them belonged to Smith. Not having that presence in the rotation will only further hamper the team's ability to pressure the pocket and contain Hendon Hooker, something that wasn't easy to start with. There's no way to replace him, but Georgia has options: senior Robert Beal, who led the team in sacks in 2021, will step in as starter, and sophomore Chaz Chambliss will get more snaps after a good showing in the Florida game that included a sack. Jalen Carter is one of the nation's premier interior pass rushers, and his input will be key to disrupting the Vols' offensive rhythm.
3. Hooker vs. Georgia's secondary. It's no secret that Hendon Hooker is one of college football's premier passers, the efficient engine behind Big Orange ranking No. 1 in total offense. And no receiver is having a better season than Jalin Hyatt, who leads the nation with 14 touchdown catches. The Vols' skill threats, which include Bru McCoy and star Cedric Tillman, back from an ankle injury, going against Georgia's Chris Smith, Malaki Starks, and Kelee Ringo in the back seven should determine which way the game goes. Georgia has been poised in the secondary this season, but watch especially how Smith starts out: he's the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Week and has made more than a few big plays in the Bulldogs' biggest games with physicality and pace.
Fast Facts
— Tennessee is the only team with 5-plus wins over AP top 25 teams at the time of the game
— Georgia allows 10.5 points per game, 2nd best nationally
— UT is plus-8 in turnover margin, 1st in SEC
— Georgia is 62-4 when leading at halftime under Kirby Smart and 11-10 when trailing
— Vols' Jalin Hyatt is 1st nationally with 9 catches of 40-plus yards
— Georgia is No. 2 in total offense (530.1) and Tennessee is No. 1 (553.0)
— Vols' Hendon Hooker has thrown a TD pass in 20 straight games, 1st nationally
— Georgia is 2-9 under Smart when allowing 30 or more points
— Hooker is 1st nationally with 10.7 yards per pass attempt and he's 7th nationally and 1st in SEC with 334.5 yards per game
— Georgia is 46 of 47 in the red zone, 1st nationally, with 33 TDs and 13 FGs
— Tennessee is allowing 92.9 rushing yards per game, 9th best in nation
— Georgia has allowed opponents to convert 32 of 111 on third down (29%), 10th nationally
— 35 of UT's 63 scoring drives (55.6%) are under 2 minutes
— Bulldogs average 7.2 plays per TD drive and 21 of their 41 touchdown drives (51.2%) have been 6, 7, 8, or 9 plays
— Vols are 1st nationally with 13.95 points in the first quarter
— Georgia is 3-8 under Smart allowing 400 yards or more to opponents
Who wins, and why?
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Tennessee will move the ball, there's no question about that. But as important to its success as its raw talent and speed at the skill positions is the pace with which this team plays.
Over half of the Vols' scoring drives this season are under two minutes of game time and the team ranks 125th nationally running plays every 20.8 seconds and 127th nationally in time of possession, holding the ball for 26 minutes, 4 seconds.
In a game so evenly drawn at most positions, the key to victory for Georgia could be its ability to just keep Hendon Hooker and the Vols off the field. Because when they're on it, they're probably going to score a touchdown: UT ranks 2nd nationally behind Ohio State at 0.627 points per play.
Unlike last season, the strength of Georgia's defense is its secondary, a unit that communicates well, is dominant in zone coverage, is able to match the Vols' tempo, and diagnoses receiver patterns off the line better than any unit that Tennessee has lined up against so far.
Combining Georgia's physicality at the line with its expert pass coverage and the ability to slow the game down offensively (UGA is 4th nationally on third down, Tennessee is 32nd) and maintain possession, the home team might just have the edge. Just.
College Football HQ Prediction: Georgia 39, Tennessee 38