Michigan vs. Penn State preview, prediction: Week 7 college football picks
A pair of Big Ten rivals square off in the Big House as Michigan welcomes Penn State in a battle of top 10 teams in college football's Week 7 action on Saturday.
Both teams are coming off closer than expected matchups in conference games: Michigan, on the road to Indiana, and Penn State, two weeks ago against Northwestern before taking last weekend off.
This week's game will be crucial in the eventual Big Ten East standings with the winner owing a vital on-field tiebreaker in the division chase.
Here's what you need to know about Saturday's matchup.
Michigan vs. Penn State preview, prediction
Week 7 college football schedule: Penn State at Michigan
How to watch
When: Sat., Oct. 15
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network
Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
More college football on SI: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Odds courtesy SI Sportsbook
Line: Michigan -7
Michigan ATS: 3-2
Penn State ATS: 3-3
Over/Under: 52
Moneyline: PSU +300, UM -200
FPI pick: Michigan 73.3%
Related: Michigan vs. Penn State picks, predictions: Week 7 college football odds, spread, lines
Michigan vs. Penn State: What you need to know
1. The unstoppable force. Michigan can run the ball almost at will behind Blake Corum, the gifted tailback who is 2nd nationally with 11 rushing touchdowns on the year and 3rd among all backs with 735 yards total. Michigan wants to control the ball and the clock and wear down its opponents psychologically and physically with a punishing regimen of consistent gains on the ground.
2. The immovable object. Coming into this game, Penn State can boast one of the premier rushing defensive units in college football, a group that ranks No. 5 nationally by surrendering all of 79.6 yards per game on the ground. Critics could argue that the defense hasn't had to stop anything like what Michigan is offering on the ground, and they would be right. Michigan's backs will test this front seven immediately, and PSU's ability to close down the primary running lanes will be key to a victory here.
3. Penn State in the red zone. Sean Clifford isn't lighting up the stat sheet, but if this team can run its way inside the 20, the quarterback performs much better there. Clifford owns PFF's highest rating in the red zone with a 92.9% completion mark and seven TDs on 14 pass attempts. Defensively, Penn State is solid in this phase, too, ranking 2nd in college football by allowing opponents to score there just 54.55% of the time. Michigan is almost at 91% scoring in the red zone, but that number fell to 77% the last three games.
Penn State vs. Michigan: Fast Facts
+ Michigan is 5-12 ATS against AP top 10 teams under Jim Harbaugh
+ PSU holds opposing passers to 49.6%, 3rd best in FBS
+ Michigan is 5th nationally in scoring defense, allowing 11.3 points per game
+ Penn State is forcing turnovers on 28.1% of possessions
+ Michigan leads the nation completing 74.1% of its passes
+ PSU's Nicholas Singleton is 3rd among FBS freshmen with 92.6 rushing yards per game
+ Michigan is 53-8 when scoring first under Jim Harbaugh and 14-16 when not
+ Singleton is 5th in FBS with 7.35 yards per carry
+ Michigan is 65-10 under Harbaugh scoring 30-plus points and 2-14 when scoring less than 20
+ Singleton is 1st with 5 runs of 40-plus yards and 3 of 50-plus
+ Michigan is 61-4 when leading after 3 quarters under Harbaugh and 5-20 when trailing
+ Penn State is 102nd nationally in pass defense (262.0 ypg)
+ Michigan is 58-6 when leading at halftime under Harbaugh and 8-16 when trailing at the half
+ Penn State is 2-6 ATS against Michigan under James Franklin, and 0-5 ATS as an underdog
Michigan vs. Penn State Prediction
As expected, Michigan has played much closer games once the Big Ten schedule opened up, and is coming off a slow start at Indiana.
Maryland kept it close thanks to the right arm of Taulia Tagovailoa and even Iowa fought back in the second half with some decent passing consistency.
The combo of Sean Clifford and Penn State's quality receiving targets - Parker Washington, Brenton Strange, and Mitchell Tinsley, who have 7 of the team's 11 passing scores - will be enough to test Michigan's back seven all day.
Add in the Nittany Lions' rushing attack, good for over 6 yards per carry and led by an inspired ball carrier in Nick Singleton, and this matchup should stay close from start to finish.
Corum is a tough act to stop on the ground, with the power to push through the interior gaps and the agility to bounce outside and rip off longer gains in space. Combined with McCarthy's uncanny efficiency throwing the ball, this is a formidable attack.
College Football HQ Prediction: Michigan 31, Penn State 26
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Clemson
5. Michigan
6. Tennessee
7. USC
8. Oklahoma State
9. Ole Miss
10. Penn State
11. UCLA
12. Oregon
13. TCU
14. Wake Forest
15. NC State
16. Mississippi State
17. Kansas State
18. Syracuse
19. Kansas
20. Utah
21. Cincinnati
T-22. Kentucky
T-22. Texas
24. Illinois
25. James Madison