UCF vs. Tulane odds, spread, lines: Week 11 college football picks, predictions by computer model

Picks and predictions for UCF vs. Tulane on the Week 11 college football schedule

Author:
James Parks
Publish date:
Nov 12, 2022 1:03 AM EST

A pair of AAC rivals meet up in New Orleans with the No. 1 position in the conference standings on the line as UCF and Tulane square off in college football's Week 11 action on Saturday.

UCF comes in at 7-2 overall with a 4-1 mark in conference play sitting at second in the league standings, while Tulane is 8-1 and 5-0 in league games hoping to defend its position in this critical head-to-head matchup.

Both teams are fairly even on both sides of the ball when it comes to scoring: UCF averages 35.7 points per game, compared with Tulane's 32.9 points per game; the Knights surrender 18.8 ppg and the Green Wave 16.9 on average.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

UCF vs. Tulane picks, predictions

UCF's chance of victory: FPI projects the Knights have the slimmest of margins to win, with a 51.9 percent chance to defeat Tulane this weekend and move into pole position in the conference standings.

Tulane's chance of victory: That leaves the Wave with the 48.1 percent shot to take down the Knights, beat their top challenger head-to-head, and maintain its spot atop the AAC.

UCF vs. Tulane point spread: Tulane comes in the narrow 2 point favorites to defeat UCF, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.

Over/under: 51.5 points

Moneyline: UCF +110, Tulane -143

How to watch: The game is set for Sat., Nov. 12 at 3:30 p.m. ET and 2:30 p.m. CT on the ESPN2 network and streams on fuboTV (Start your free trial).

UCF predictions: The computers rank the Knights ahead of Tulane in the AAC owing to its superior projected per-game scoring margin: FPI estimates UCF is 9.8 points better than an average team on a neutral field. That leads to a 9.8 projected win total and a 42.8 percent shot to win the conference.

Tulane predictions: FPI rates the Wave as 6.2 points better than an average team, third in the league, and projected to win 9.8 games and with a 26.0 percent chance to win the AAC.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

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