College Football Powerhouse Predicted to Bounce Back After Disappointing 2025 Season

A new coach, 50 new players and an open quarterback job have national projections pointing up after a four win season in the SEC

This 44-year-old coach speaks to the press during SEC Football Kickoff Media Day at the Tampa Marriott. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Florida finished 4-8 in 2025. It was the fourth losing season in five years in Gainesville, and the Gators have won just 23 of their last 50 games. Head coach Billy Napier was fired in October, midway through his fourth year. The team missed a bowl for the second time in three seasons.

CBS Sports now lists Florida among nine teams projected to add the most wins in 2026. Seven of those nine hired a new head coach over the winter. That pattern shows how fast rosters turn over now. A staff can bring in 50 new players in one offseason and look like a different team by September.

Jon Sumrall says the Tulane stop mattered

Head coach Jon Sumrall was hired in late November 2025 after taking Tulane to the College Football Playoff. He went 23-4 in two seasons at Troy and 20-8 in two seasons at Tulane. The Alabama native has said he needed that second stop first. Jumping straight from Troy to a job this size, he believes, would have handed him more than he was ready to manage.

That is worth holding onto, because his predecessor did exactly that, making the leap from a small program. Napier went 40-12 at Louisiana in the Sun Belt before Florida hired him. He finished 22-23 with the Gators and went 1-7 against Georgia, Florida State and Miami. Napier now coaches James Madison.

The former Kentucky linebacker is not lowering the bar. "My expectation is to win every time we play," Sumrall said.

Jadan Baugh, Vernell Brown III and Jayden Woods all stayed

Florida kept three of its best young players, and all three landed on the preseason All-SEC teams. Running back Jadan Baugh ran for 1,170 yards and eight touchdowns as a sophomore.

Receiver Vernell Brown III caught 40 passes for 512 yards, both team highs, and added 261 return yards as a freshman. Edge rusher Jayden Woods had 28 tackles and 3.5 sacks.

Florida Gators wide receiver Vernell Brown III (8) attempts to make a catch. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Keeping them took real effort because Sumrall visited Baugh's grandmother's house on Christmas Day to talk it through. Brown, the son and grandson of former Gators, said he bought in after meeting the new staff.

Quarterback job is open between Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones Jr.

DJ Lagway transferred to Baylor after the coaching change. That leaves Georgia Tech transfer Aaron Philo and redshirt freshman Tramell Jones Jr.

Florida quarterback Aaron Philo (12) throws with Florida quarterback Tramell Jones Jr. (9) during spring practice at Sanders Practice Fields. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Philo followed new offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner from Atlanta and already knows the offense. Sumrall said the sophomore has "a quick release, a strong arm, (is a) good decision-maker, and can run."

Sumrall will not say when he names a starter, and he has also floated using both players. "Just because you start Game 1 doesn't mean you start Game 12," he said.

Florida's 2026 schedule gets hard in October

Florida opens at home against Florida Atlantic on Sept. 5 and Campbell on Sept. 12. Then comes the conference opener at Auburn on Sept. 19 and Ole Miss at Florida on Sept. 26.

JADAN BAUGH GOES 55 YARDS!!! pic.twitter.com/NIiNpdCI8U

— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) November 16, 2024

The middle of the year will decide how we evaluate the Gators in 2026. Florida plays at Missouri on Oct. 3, hosts South Carolina on Oct. 10, plays at Texas on Oct. 17, meets Georgia in Atlanta on Oct. 31 and hosts Oklahoma on Nov. 7.

The SEC moved to nine conference games this season. Florida draws four teams picked to finish ahead of it, including the league's top three.

What the national numbers say about Florida in 2026

SEC media picked Florida ninth out of 16 teams and gave it no votes to win the league. ESPN's preseason Football Power Index is kinder, ranking Florida 18th nationally.

Sumrall took over a roster with proven skill players and open questions on the offensive line and in the front seven. Just eight regular-season wins would be Florida's first since 2020. Camp opens Aug. 5, and the quarterback decision will shape which of those results the Gators get.