Josh Pate Reveals the Heisman Trophy Winner in 2026 Will Be on a CFP Team

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning warms up before a game. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

The Heisman Trophy is one of the most prestigious awards in all of sports.

Just about every kid dreams of one day being on stage at the Heisman ceremony, being handed the trophy and striking the iconic pose. But that reality only happens for a select few. Last season, it was Indiana Hoosiers' quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

The year before that was Colorado Buffaloes two-way player Travis Hunter. In 2023, it was LSU Tigers' Jayden Daniels, and in 2022, it was USC Trojans' Caleb Williams. There is also a glaring common theme among three of those four winners: Their team didn't make the College Football Playoff.

Only Mendoza's team did, and they ended up winning the whole thing. The other three teams fell short of that goal. So, what will 2026 hold?

Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr (13) runs with the football. | Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

Some of the preseason favorites are Notre Dame Fighting Irish's CJ Carr, Texas Longhorns' Arch Manning, Ole Miss Rebels' Trinidad Chambliss, Ohio State Buckeyes' Julian Sayin and Indiana's Josh Hoover. However, those five are all expected to make the playoffs in 2026.

So, what will the chances be of a Heisman winner being from a non-playoff team? Josh Pate revealed on his show, "Josh Pate's College Football Show," that he doesn't believe those chances will be high.

"A Heisman winner has actually not been on a playoff team in three of the last four years," Pate said. "But this is still a 9.75 on the boldness scale. Here's why. Two of those years, I think, were a four-team playoff. Then you had a two-way player, too. Travis Hunter plays both ways; we don't have that this year. So, there' snot an anomalous freak show type of situation... I just think it's very unlikely."

Pate is right when he says it's unlikely a team not in the playoffs will have the Heisman winner, because context matters. If the 2022 and 2023 seasons had the 12-team playoff, Williams would have been in, but Daniels would have slightly missed the playoff.

But it almost would take a performance we had never seen before for a player to win the Heisman and not make the playoff.

Hunter was the perfect example of that. We had seen players play both ways before, but never to that level on both sides. So, the likelihood of the Heisman winner being on a non-playoff team is very low.

On top of that, quarterbacks usually get the award, as 21 of the winners since 2000 have been quarterbacks.

So, it's much more likely for someone like Manning, Chambliss or Carr to win it and have their teams in position for a national championship than for an off-the-radar prospect to take it home. In contrast, their team sits at home watching other teams compete for a chance at a national title.