ESPN football computer predicts Indiana vs. Oregon semifinal game

An expert prediction for Indiana vs. Oregon in the College Football Playoff Peach Bowl semifinal from a model that simulates games and picks winners.

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The only loss Oregon has this year came against Indiana, and now the Big Ten rivals are poised to meet in a rematch in the College Football Playoff Peach Bowl semifinal game with a chance at the national championship on the line.

Indiana edged out Oregon by 10 points at Autzen Stadium earlier this year on the way to completing an undefeated season that resulted in a Big Ten title and the No. 1 overall seed in the playoff.

Oregon blanked Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl quarterfinal game and boasts one of the strong defenses and groups of skill players in college football going against a stout Indiana defense.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Indiana vs. Oregon prediction

Coming into this rematch, the model expects a repeat of what happened the first time.

Indiana enters the matchup as the overwhelming favorite according to the index, coming out as the presumptive winner in the majority 70.4 percent of computer simulations.

That leaves Oregon as the presumptive winner in the remaining 29.6 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

This edition of Ducks-Hoosiers could be closer than the first one, as the model forecasts Indiana will be just 4.4 points better than Oregon on the same field.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74 percent of all games and hit 48 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.