Joel Klatt likes LSU this week despite Vanderbilt being rare favorites

"LSU's defense has been excellent this year — Blake Baker has done a marvelous job fixing that defense. They're long, they're athletic, they can put pressure on the quarterback."

Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Joel Klatt sized up Saturday's ranked SEC matchup in Nashville as a style clash that favors LSU's defense and quarterback Garrett Nussmeier — even with Vanderbilt as a rare favorite. "Vanderbilt in a top-25 matchup, favored by 2.5 in this one... we don't see this often," Klatt said. "LSU's defense has been excellent this year — Blake Baker has done a marvelous job fixing that defense. They're long, they're athletic, they can put pressure on the quarterback."

He also added that the Tigers' athletes "can combat [Vandy QB] Diego Pavia's creativity and off-schedule plays," calling it "a bad matchup for Vanderbilt."

It's the first time in decades the Commodores have been favored in a ranked game — and the first time since 1948 they've been favored over LSU. The matchup kicks at Noon ET at FirstBank Stadium. Vanderbilt had a bye after its Oct. 4 loss at Alabama, while LSU beat South Carolina 20–10 last week.

LSU's defense has opened 2025 as a top-tier scoring unit, holding Clemson, Florida and South Carolina to 10 points apiece and allowing 11.8 points per game through six contests. Against the Gamecocks, the Tigers logged five sacks and forced two turnovers while controlling the fourth quarter. "If you'd told an LSU fan before the year, 'Baker will fix the defense,' you'd think they're 11–1 and in Atlanta," Klatt said.

Offensively, the Tigers showed a pulse on the ground, rushing for 166 yards against South Carolina — "signs of life in the run game," as Klatt put it — even as Nussmeier manages through bumps and bruises. "I don't think this is a team that has to be dominant in the run game," Klatt said. "They can lean on their quarterback, and when the opportunity arises, run it efficiently — if they do that, they should win this game."

Tigers Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier hands off to JuJuan Johnson. | SCOTT CLAUSE / USATODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Vanderbilt comes in at No. 17 in the AP Top 25 and 5–1 behind Pavia, but scoring against LSU remains in question. "If you can't get them [LSU] out of man with chunk plays, where do you go?" he asked, projecting a choppy day for Vandy's offense even after the bye.

Klatt did also mention caution on LSU's scoring ceiling. The Tigers haven't gone over 20 points against a Power Four opponent this season — 17 at Clemson, 20 vs. Florida, 19 at Ole Miss, 20 vs. South Carolina — so a low-20's target likely suffices if Baker's defense travels. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, hasn't beaten LSU as a favorite in modern memory and is navigating a historic role reversal this week as the favorite.

Klatt's pick: "LSU wins this one 20–17... I'm taking the +2.5 with LSU."